Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[Jammer7]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Unreasonable expectations.

For every guy in that size range who makes it, there are tens of thousands who do not. The odds are just against them. It’s really cool when they do. It isn’t about the height, but various characteristics. I baited responses and got them. Read my post explaining that. 

[Jammer7]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nope.  Nor really any of his peers.  But we know they were being used.

I'm not saying either way.

It’s hard to say. Many of them, it was obvious if you were around the game then. A friend of mine played with Canseco in the minors. One year, a skinny gangly kid. The next Spring, beast mode. He said it was obvious. I have been told this kind of story many times.

But there was a lot of names that came out, like Palmeiro, that did not look the part. So, who knows.

As a fan, I loved Kirby’s game. Not so much some of the off field stuff later. 

 

[RZNJ]

7 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

For now, it’s my opinion. I’m backing it with that for now. You don’t like it, that’s your choice. Perhaps you find I have no credibility. Ok, you don’t know me, or who I talk with often. That’s fine. I’m nobody.

I’ve read it, but I’ve read and heard a lot. Takes time to find those things. Might have been a few months ago. So what. Changes nothing. 

“Busting my chops” about a half grade, is silly. I mean if we’re back to that kind of stuff, I’m done with this topic then. I’m not going to argue. If it makes you feel better, give him an average grade. You win the battle of nothing at all. 

For instance, BA says (paraphrasing) he is average now. The hands work well. The arm is average, for a 2B. They say he will likely lose a step at maturity. His range is down some now, the reason cited that he should be a 2B. They say he will generally catch what he can get to. Then, they say it would be “unsurprising” if he loses a step. Sounds like a below average future grade to me, without coming out and saying it. It’s obviously behind a pay wall, but that is what it says.

Now, enjoy your night. 

I enjoy your posts and respect your knowledge but obviously you won't be able to find any reports that say his best case scenario is below average.  You just cited one that says he's average but "might" be below average in the future. 

Just because you're very knowledgeable doesn't mean you're above being called out when you say something inaccurate and if you want to play "it's my ball and I'm going home" no one can stop you.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I enjoy your posts and respect your knowledge but obviously you won't be able to find any reports that say his best case scenario is below average.  You just cited one that says he's average but "might" be below average in the future. 

Just because you're very knowledgeable doesn't mean you're above being called out when you say something inaccurate and if you want to play "it's my ball and I'm going home" no one can stop you.

Stop him?  Stop him from what?  Posting his opinion?  He can and should post what he wants.  He’s giving you his reasoning why he doesn’t want to go Termarr 1:1.  You disagree and that’s fine but so what?  Why should he give a damn that you disagree?  Why should he care about some bs standard you want him held to?  
 

You keep throwing out all sorts of names.  At the end of the day, you will sit here be happy with anyone Elias goes with, which is why you do what you do.  You will kiss his ass, give him the benefit of the doubt and say he knows more than the rest of us.  Fine..but then why even discuss it?  You either have an opinion or you dont.  Don’t cower behind the thought of “Elias is always right and he knows more than everyone else”.  
 

You say you are good with Jones, Holliday and Lee.  Does that mean you think Elias will make the wrong decision if he takes anyone else?  

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Stop him?  Stop him from what?  Posting his opinion?  He can and should post what he wants.  He’s giving you his reasoning why he doesn’t want to go Termarr 1:1.  You disagree and that’s fine but so what?  Why should he give a damn that you disagree?  Why should he care about some bs standard you want him held to?  
 

You keep throwing out all sorts of names.  At the end of the day, you will sit here be happy with anyone Elias goes with, which is why you do what you do.  You will kiss his ass, give him the benefit of the doubt and say he knows more than the rest of us.  Fine..but then why even discuss it?  You either have an opinion or you dont.  Don’t cower behind the thought of “Elias is always right and he knows more than everyone else”.  
 

You say you are good with Jones, Holliday and Lee.  Does that mean you think Elias will make the wrong decision if he takes anyone else?  

He said there were reports out there that said Johnson was below average defensively.   Now he says it's just his opinion but he still says those reports are out there.   I have not seen ONE.   That's all.   He's entitled to his opinion.

I have my preferences but that doesn't mean sh*t compared to the information Elias has to go on.   Of course, I'm not the draft expert that you are.  As usual you are convinced you know everything 100%.   I would like to see them draft one of the three guys I mentioned.   Speaking of throwing out names I can copy and paste your thoughts from last year leading up to the draft when you threw out 4 different names.    Don't be a hypocrite.

I will give Elias the benefit of the doubt until it's shown that he has made poor decisions.   So far, his drafting looks to be very good so why jump all over him if he picks someone who was not my preference.   That's not kissing ass.  That's being reasonable.  Reasonable.  Something you know nothing about.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He said there were reports out there that said Johnson was below average defensively.   Now he says it's just his opinion but he still says those reports are out there.   I have not seen ONE.   That's all.   He's entitled to his opinion.

I have my preferences but that doesn't mean sh*t compared to the information Elias has to go on.   Of course, I'm not the draft expert that you are.  As usual you are convinced you know everything 100%.   I would like to see them draft one of the three guys I mentioned.   Speaking of throwing out names I can copy and paste your thoughts from last year leading up to the draft when you threw out 4 different names.    Don't be a hypocrite.

I will give Elias the benefit of the doubt until it's shown that he has made poor decisions.   So far, his drafting looks to be very good so why jump all over him if he picks someone who was not my preference.   That's not kissing ass.  That's being reasonable.  Reasonable.  Something you know nothing about.

 

 

I don’t care if you have a list of people you are happy with.  But stop hiding behind the idea that Elias knows all.  Either have an opinion and own up to it or shut up about it.  What is your list of players  you would be unhappy with?  That is what this discussion is about.  Tell us who you would be unhappy with if his name is called with pick 1:1?

If people want to post opinions  and thoughts that are contrary to what Elias says/does that’s fine.  That’s what the site is for.  Not everyone is a slave to what he does.

I don’t see how he did some good job last year but ok.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t care if you have a list of people you are happy with.  But stop hiding behind the idea that Elias knows all.  Either have an opinion and own up to it or shut up about it.  What is your list of players  you would be unhappy with?  That is what this discussion is about.  Tell us who you would be unhappy with if his name is called with pick 1:1?

If people want to post opinions  and thoughts that are contrary to what Elias says/does that’s fine.  That’s what the site is for.  Not everyone is a slave to what he does.

I don’t see how he did some good job last year but ok.

I have plenty of opinions, genius.   Can you read?   I never said Elias knows all.    I mentioned 3 names I would like to see.   I will be disappointed if it's not one of those.  Unhappy?  Irate?  No.   I'll wait to see how the rest of the draft unfolds and then see how the actual picks do as professionals.   That seems reasonable to me.   I realize the guy who said we should take Christian Colon instead of Manny Machado and hides behind "I didn't trust the Orioles to properly develop him" as his EXCUSE is so, so smart that he knows 100% the right picks and the wrong picks on draft day.

You think you're smart because you have strong OPINION.  It's IRONIC that you of all people use the word STUPID and MORON more than any other person on this board.

Hip, hip, hooray for you!    

[RZNJ]

MLB's writeup on Johnson which ANYONE can read.

A shortstop in high school, Johnson will change positions as a pro because his quickness and arm are more average than plus. His hands work well in the field as well as at the plate and he profiles best at second base, where he should be at least a solid defender. He committed to Arizona State in May.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

MLB's writeup on Johnson which ANYONE can read.

A shortstop in high school, Johnson will change positions as a pro because his quickness and arm are more average than plus. His hands work well in the field as well as at the plate and he profiles best at second base, where he should be at least a solid defender. He committed to Arizona State in May.

Now you are just taunting the illiterate amongst us.

[LookinUp]

If we pick...my grade is:

Jones, Holliday - A

Green - B+ but intrigued

Lee - C+

Johnson - C-

I'd need to see some crazy lofty over slot (like Rocker) to be happy with Lee or Johnson, but you could talk me into Green being the top talent with the right player development people.

[RZNJ]

Baseball America

As a defender, Johnson is likely to move to second base due to limited range and arm strength that fits better on the right side of the infield. He’s sure-handed on balls he gets to and he turns a double play nicely, with quick footwork and a fast exchange, and profiles as an average defender. He is an average runner now, but it would be unsurprising for him to slow down a tick as he reaches physical maturity.

[Can_of_corn]

10 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

For every guy in that size range who makes it, there are tens of thousands who do not. The odds are just against them. It’s really cool when they do. It isn’t about the height, but various characteristics. I baited responses and got them. Read my post explaining that. 

Not sure what you even mean here?

For the 6+ years of team control Altuve had:

Three batting titles.

Five All-star appearances.

Four Silver Sluggers (at 2B).

An MVP.

Three other top 20 finishes in MVP voting.

A ring.

How in the world is not that worthy of going 1-1?

[LookinUp]

Just to add, if the O's picked Green anytime between 1980 about 2018, I'd think it was a terrible pick. It's only because I have some confidence in their player dev approach that I'd be happy if they take him now.

[Flash- bd]

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

So far, his drafting looks to be very good

Given this fact (first two drafts undeniably look quite good at the moment, third draft looks the most uninteresting of the bunch so far but well too early to tell), it's weird how much skepticism there is and willingness to criticize there is, and how little benefit of the doubt is given.

If you look at the first two drafts--even Kjerstad, as a below-slot, is actually looking like quite a good pick and a very intelligent decision to go low-slot there, when you look at the other options, many preferred here (Martin, among others, who we were criticized greatly for not picking)--we have gotten 2 #1 prospects in our system out of them (2 top 10 in baseball, at least 1 top 1), 5 top 10 prospects in our system, and 7 top 15. That's a very good haul from 2 drafts any way you look at it, and it would be hard to call those 2 drafts anything but very good...hell, even with just Gunnar and Adley out of those two drafts you are looking at a fantastic haul. But anyways, the under-slot choice of Kjerstad and later selections of Mayo and Baumler looks like a spot on strategy in the second, as well. 

So yeah, gotta say, I find it weird given this track record, how little benefit of the doubt and how little credit is given, and how much willingness there is to criticize. From reading through draft threads and the minors you often would get the feeling that Elias' drafts here so far have been very underwhelming indeed, something which doesn't really match up with what we know at this early stage. 

In short, Sports Guy's accusation to you that you will be happy with whoever Elias picks at 1:1 doesn't sound to me like an accusation at all...it sounds to me like a pretty reasonable stance to have, given the evidence. 

The three prospects that really intrigue me I have to say are Jones, Johnson, and Holliday, with Lee a close 4th, and then Green. I'd be happy with any of them. Especially like the idea of Jones or Johnson at a bit under slot at 1:1, I don't understand what is not to like about a 2B with one of the best hit tools people have seen in a long time... But yeah, I pretty much trust Elias' judgment on this one, given how much more information he has than us, and given his track record and good-looking process so far. 

[Can_of_corn]

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

  So far, his drafting looks to be very good so why jump all over him if he picks someone who was not my preference.   That's not kissing ass.  That's being reasonable.  Reasonable.  Something you know nothing about.

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Flash- bd said:

Given this fact (first two drafts undeniably look quite good at the moment, third draft looks the most uninteresting of the bunch so far but well too early to tell), it's weird how much skepticism there is and willingness to criticize there is, and how little benefit of the doubt is given.

 

So yeah, gotta say, I find it weird given this track record, how little benefit of the doubt and how little credit is given, and how much willingness there is to criticize. From reading through draft threads and the minors you often would get the feeling that Elias' drafts here so far have been very underwhelming indeed, something which doesn't really match up with what we know at this early stage. 

The thing is, he's positioned himself to have fabulous draft positions.

You give any GM a 1-1, 1-2, 1-5 set of drafts and the results should look solid.

The question is, are they as are good as they would have been if he had played the last two conventionally?

We don't know.