Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[DocJJ]

I forgot Adley signed for about $400K underslot (though still a record $8.1M at the time!) and we signed Gunnar for $2.3M.   To me, this shows this strategy can be very effective at adding multiple high-level talents through the draft.   The keys are: 1) Making sure you still come away with a stud with the 1st pick 2) Properly identifying a Gunnar Henderson type of player around pick 30-40 to nab.

 

I'd see what our scouts and cross-checkers think about the 30-40 range.  If there is a really high talent high schooler in that range that they strongly feel could be a Gunnar type of guy, I'd be ok trying to save a bit on the #1 overall pick. 

 

I've been reading that there are a lot of guys who fit that bill, although we just lost one (Dutkanyich) who is going to Vanderbilt...

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DocJJ said:

I forgot Adley signed for about $400K underslot (though still a record $8.1M at the time!) and we signed Gunnar for $2.3M.   To me, this shows this strategy can be very effective at adding multiple high-level talents through the draft.   The keys are: 1) Making sure you still come away with a stud with the 1st pick 2) Properly identifying a Gunnar Henderson type of player around pick 30-40 to nab.

 

I'd see what our scouts and cross-checkers think about the 30-40 range.  If there is a really high talent high schooler in that range that they strongly feel could be a Gunnar type of guy, I'd be ok trying to save a bit on the #1 overall pick. 

 

I've been reading that there are a lot of guys who fit that bill, although we just lost one (Dutkanyich) who is going to Vanderbilt...

Of course the problem is you never knows that the guy you’re hoping to nab in the 30-40 range actually will be there.  So you can’t focus too much on one guy.  

[DocJJ]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Of course the problem is you never knows that the guy you’re hoping to nab in the 30-40 range actually will be there.  So you can’t focus too much on one guy.  

Good point- I think we got snakebit planning to take Nick Bitsko that way....

[Just Regular]

31 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

Good point- I think we got snakebit planning to take Nick Bitsko that way....

I guess that makes Jordan Westburg the player sucking the venom out of the wound.

Bitsko beat Westburg by 700k on bonus (helped by a higher draft slot than if he'd made it to us), so flip a coin and throw back one of Mayo or Baumler.

Bitsko may have been the Plan A before backups.    Still murky two years out, but from here year 3-4 is probably gonna be Tampa nursing that shoulder back from its surgery.    17 year olds might be able to throw 100, but maybe they shouldn't...

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

17 year olds might be able to throw 100, but maybe they shouldn't...

I am always leery of guys like him. IIRC, he had a large velo bump shortly before the draft. The whole “throw as hard as you can” on every pitch though for HS kids is a terrible idea, IMO, for their long term career. I mean, he got life-changing bonus $$, but he may never be right again. 

[jrobb21613]

Man Johnson has a beautiful swing!  

 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

I am always leery of guys like him. IIRC, he had a large velo bump shortly before the draft. The whole “throw as hard as you can” on every pitch though for HS kids is a terrible idea, IMO, for their long term career. I mean, he got life-changing bonus $$, but he may never be right again. 

Grayson had a big velo bump his senior year. 

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Grayson had a big velo bump his senior year. 

So did Hobgood.

And Coffey.

[Paul in Virginia]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So did Hobgood.

And Coffey.

 

[Jammer7]

3 hours ago, baltfan said:

Grayson had a big velo bump his senior year. 

I saw Grayson in his HS senior summer. I believe he was 91-93, maybe touched 94. He was a bit of a soft body. His bump was a few (2-3) MPH, but the secondaries and body shape took big jumps. The mechanics were more repeatable. He wasn’t throwing 100 until last year.

I may be wrong, but I think Bitsko jumped about 8-10 mph. It’s really about the effort in the delivery. Grayson shoves 100 now and it’s easy.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

Man Johnson has a beautiful swing!  

 

It’s kind of hypnotic, isn’t it?   Didn’t look like he had a SS arm, but we knew that.  

[now]

19 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

Man Johnson has a beautiful swing!  

 

Not sure about that sky-high launch angle though. Looks like he's overcompensating for the Kjerstad GB trend...

[LookinUp]

19 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

Man Johnson has a beautiful swing!  

 

Is it? Genuinely asking for any swing experts out there.

I see a kid with an extra hitch in his load, which you can see by his raising of the back elbow. Makes me think he crushes BP and lower level pitching but maybe can't catch up to high velo.

That's my view of things, but an actual hitting instructor might not think it's a problem at all.

[NCRaven]

Every hitter has a timing mechanism of one kind or another.  If scouts are giving Johnson a 70-80 grade on the hit tool, at least they don't thinks it's a major problem.

[Just Regular]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34206868/2022-mlb-draft-rankings-30-kiley-mcdaniel-top-300-prospects

Kiley grinding out the content as the excitement leverage for draftniks just about at its peak.    He has Jacob Berry out of Top 2 tiers, batched with Gavin Cross and the other challengers to Lee-Parada for top NCAA guy.     Tier 1 all preps, and he was emphatic in the intro this is simply his list of how good he thinks everyone is without respect to whether it is an appropriately priced Lamborghini, or a steal on a Mercedes-Benz.

Sure I'll be exhausted by the time we get real life outcomes late next Sunday night.    1-1 will be around dinner time.