Rutschman vs Witt

[interloper]

I fully expect Adley to address his defensive issues and improve next year. For a sophomore season, he is remarkably consistent offensively compared to his good rookie year, minus some doubles. The lack of DRS is disappointing but not necessarily a crazy red flag or anything. We ran him into the ground the first 3 months of the season, too, when he was kind of the only good offensive player for awhile. 

[Jim'sKid26]

Just to put in another perspective:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bobby-witt-jr-may-be-2023s-best-kept-secret/

"It’s not just his offense that’s taken a step forward; so has his defense, which was one of the sticking points in his profile as a prospect. It wasn’t a sure thing whether he’d be at short instead of third base long term; RAA (-7), DRS (-18) and UZR (-7) all hated his glove work last year, and his defensive numbers at third only grading out as “mediocre” was another negative data point.... But he’s improved by double digits in all the defensive metrics this season while exclusively playing short ..."

 

@Sports Guy I think I agree with you.

Edited August 16, 2023 by Jim'sKid26

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I noticed the same thing. Makes you wonder with a lot of these "stats" what the underlying inputs are and where they come from. Garbage in, garbage out, as they say. Even in this day of AI, I can't imagine a computer accurately determining something as complex as hard from easy catcher chances. But if ia human codes each pitch, that introduces subjectivity. Certainly, I don't agree with a lot of the PB/WP calls made by the scorekeeper. I would imagine easy/medium/hard is even harder to determine. 

Here’s what Baseball Savant says:

“How this works: Every pitch is assigned a probability of being a passed ball or wild pitch based upon several inputs, most notably: pitch location, pitch speed, pitch movement, catcher location, and batter/pitcher handedness. Based on that knowledge, each pitch a catcher receives (or fails to) is credited or debited with the appropriate amount of difficulty. For example, if a catcher blocks a pitch that is a PB + WP 10% of the time, he will receive +0.10. If he blocks a pitch that is a PB + WP 90% of the time, he will receive +0.90.”

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-blocking?players=672386-2023-141&selected_idx=0

Seems like that has to be computer generated rather than judged by humans.  Still, they may have tweaked their criteria for labeling the difficulty.

[Frobby]

By the way, I’ve made three posts about Witt this year.

April 10: “Advantage Rutschman so far, and I strongly preferred him, but it will take several years to truly know who turned out better.  Witt is off to a slow start but 10 games won’t decide what kind of season or career he has.”

May 5: “I want to say that I’m really impressed by what I see in Bobby Witt.  You can just tell he’s a kid who’s going to mature into a really good player.  He’s got all the tools.”

June 9: “For the record, I have really been impressed with Bobby Witt when I’ve seen him. He’s only been worth 1.3 rWAR so far, but he has a lot of tools and I could see him exploding.”

Edited August 16, 2023 by Frobby

[backwardsk]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Here’s what Baseball Savant says:

“How this works: Every pitch is assigned a probability of being a passed ball or wild pitch based upon several inputs, most notably: pitch location, pitch speed, pitch movement, catcher location, and batter/pitcher handedness. Based on that knowledge, each pitch a catcher receives (or fails to) is credited or debited with the appropriate amount of difficulty. For example, if a catcher blocks a pitch that is a PB + WP 10% of the time, he will receive +0.10. If he blocks a pitch that is a PB + WP 90% of the time, he will receive +0.90.”

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-blocking?players=672386-2023-141&selected_idx=0

Seems like that has to be computer generated rather than judged by humans.  Still, they may have tweaked their criteria for labeling the difficulty.

So it doesn’t take into account the runners on base. Where in one instance you have fast runners who have excellent secondary leads and can advance on balls that don’t get far away. In another instance you have 2023 Miguel Cabrera on base and he’s not advancing unless the ball leaves the field. It doesn’t account for the hitter at the plate and the corresponding aggressiveness of the situation.

[Hallas]

2 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

So it doesn’t take into account the runners on base. Where in one instance you have fast runners who have excellent secondary leads and can advance on balls that don’t get far away. In another instance you have 2023 Miguel Cabrera on base and he’s not advancing unless the ball leaves the field. It doesn’t account for the hitter at the plate and the corresponding aggressiveness of the situation.

I dont think taking into account the runner is going to impact more than a couple WPs a year.  The number of unblocked/poorly blocked pitches that would be WPs for some runners but not others can't be very high.  Almost any ball to the backstop is a WP no matter who is on base.

[brucewayne]

Bobby Witt barely has a career OBP over .300

 

Stop this now. Stop. No debate. Rutschman is the better player. The fact that he plays the most important position on the field seals it even further. 

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, brucewayne said:

Bobby Witt barely has a career OBP over .300

 

Stop this now. Stop. No debate. Rutschman is the better player. The fact that he plays the most important position on the field seals it even further. 

As I’ve said before, we won’t know for several more years who turned out to be the better player.   

But the career OBP argument is a poor one.  First, OBP is not the sole barometer of who’s a good player.  Second, Witt’s OBP is much better this year than last year.  Third, his OBP is rocketing upwards these days, .371 since June 11.   Witt’s a young player, and he’s figuring things out.   Wouldn’t shock me if he finished the season with an OBP over .340.  (It also wouldn’t shock me if he finished below his current .317; baseball is a game of hot and cold.)

One thing is certain, both players are really good.  But only one of them plays on a really good team right now, so let’s enjoy that.  
 

[Orioles Jim]

 

Hrmmm, maybe we should change the name of this thread? 

[Frobby]

From David Laurila’s Sunday Fangraphs column:

Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. were the top picks in the 2019 draft. You can have either one going forward. Which are you taking?

I asked that question in a Twitter poll a few days ago, fully expecting a relatively close race. What I got instead was a landslide. Of the more than 1,400 votes cast, 89.2% went to the Kansas City Royals shortstop. The Baltimore Orioles catcher received a paltry 10.8%.

Witt is the younger of the two. He turns 24 later this week, while Rutschman celebrated his 26th birthday back in February. How much of a difference that made to voters is hard to say. Ditto the fact that Witt is off to a spectacular start this season. An early contender for AL MVP, the sweet-swinging infielder has a 159 wRC+ and 4.2 WAR — which isn’t to say that Rutschman hasn’t likewise been performing at a high level. Playing a position largely lacking star power, he has a 134 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR.

As for their respective careers to date, Rutschman has played in 326 games and has a 131 wRC+ and 13.3 WAR, while Witt has played in 372 games and has a 115 wRC+ and 12.4 WAR.

Does the better future for these young superstars truly belong to Witt? Only time will tell.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

From David Laurila’s Sunday Fangraphs column:

Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. were the top picks in the 2019 draft. You can have either one going forward. Which are you taking?

I asked that question in a Twitter poll a few days ago, fully expecting a relatively close race. What I got instead was a landslide. Of the more than 1,400 votes cast, 89.2% went to the Kansas City Royals shortstop. The Baltimore Orioles catcher received a paltry 10.8%.

Witt is the younger of the two. He turns 24 later this week, while Rutschman celebrated his 26th birthday back in February. How much of a difference that made to voters is hard to say. Ditto the fact that Witt is off to a spectacular start this season. An early contender for AL MVP, the sweet-swinging infielder has a 159 wRC+ and 4.2 WAR — which isn’t to say that Rutschman hasn’t likewise been performing at a high level. Playing a position largely lacking star power, he has a 134 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR.

As for their respective careers to date, Rutschman has played in 326 games and has a 131 wRC+ and 13.3 WAR, while Witt has played in 372 games and has a 115 wRC+ and 12.4 WAR.

Does the better future for these young superstars truly belong to Witt? Only time will tell.

Career numbers aren't relevant for who you would have rather drafted.  It's about what they do in the years of team control.

I think most of us feel that Witt will put up more career WAR than Adley, he debuted at a younger age and should age more gracefully.

[Sports Guy]

If the Os had taken Witt, Os fans would be saying they got the better player.

[Roy Firestone]

I wish Bobby Witt well(as long as he doesnt beat us).But Adley Rutsshman is a monster talent with gifts that most catchers in baseball don't have. He is a great hitter and getting better, he is a team leader, a pretty good defender, and by all accounts, a terrific human being with a strong, positive presence in the clubhouse. That he's an Oriole and will be for some time makes fans happy and proud. Thats the only thing I'll say. So, good luck Bobby Witt, but I'll take Adley every day, ANY day. What a gift that keeps on giving.

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Career numbers aren't relevant for who you would have rather drafted.  It's about what they do in the years of team control.

I think most of us feel that Witt will put up more career WAR than Adley, he debuted at a younger age and should age more gracefully.

The question wasn’t who would you rather have drafted, it’s who would you rather have going forward.   Similar question but not exactly the same.  In a vacuum the case for Witt is clear, but we’re not living in a vacuum.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If the Os had taken Witt, Os fans would be saying they got the better player.

I think at least some of us would be going Hey it's cool we have Gunnar and Witt both but geez, McCann starting 120 games at Catcher is kinda killing us.

 

And I'd be posting about the O's trading Heim away for nothing even more often than I already do.

Edited June 10 by Can_of_corn