Trade Deadline Primer/Thread

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure.  He has incredible stuff..some of the best in the sport.  I also think you are wrong that people only want him because he was on Tampa.  Yes, we saw him more than if he was on Arizona but the stats are what they are.

Santander isn’t a guy that brings back much in trade.  Teams aren’t trading real prospects for him.  He’s very replaceable in our system.  If the Pads would make this move, you jump on it.  

Nah, I think the familiarity has a lot to do with this board's interest in Snell.  I hardly saw a mention of Luis Castillo on here in recent weeks.  

I agree that Santander isn't a guy that brings back much.  Solid player but there's nothing outstanding about him.  And yes, very replaceable.  

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Your commitment to being clueless is even more impressive.

The idea that you think Stowers plus Snell is worse than Santander is horrible.

Maybe you are also Wildcard and are obsessed with the recent sample size.

The thing about Elias/Hyde/Holt is they believe in their ability to identify and develop pitchers with no track record of success in the majors.   Voth, Watkins, Kremer, Tyler Wells, Bradish and even Lyles.   None of them are sure things.   

I seriously doubt they will commit to paying Snell 16M next season.  Instead they are more likely to find someone with good spin rates, put them through their analytics and coaching and see how successful they can be that way.   JMO

Edited August 1, 2022 by wildcard

[Pickles]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course it’s part of it.  You make room for him, room that I believe we have now but obviously the team doesn’t.

But fine, if you want to take him out.

Santander has a career fWAR of 2.7, with about half coming this year (and a lot of that the last month I bet).  Snell has a career WAR of 14.7.

We are a team loaded with OF prospects and basically nothing pitching.

Snell has high K rates, an FIP of under 4 for 4 of the last 5 years.  He misses bats at a high rate.

The issues for him are walk rate(was better in Tampa) and the lack of innings.  However, he’s not being paid that much money.  I agree about the injury issues (same issue for Santander) but you aren’t going to trade your best prospects for pitching and the team isn’t going to spend major dollars over the long term to bring in pitching.  Snell represents a high upside and Santander is an extremely minimal cost to acquire that upside.

He is a clear and obvious upgrade for our pitching staff and he’s a better player than Santander.  The only reason this can even be remotely discussed is because of the Padres money situation, something the Orioles don’t have an issue with.

You know K rates, and FIP, and all that, are all well and good, but there comes a time when you actually have to deliver on the field, and Snell's rarely done that.  Again, he's about to be 30 and he's had one season of his career worth more than 1.5 WAR.

I'm not convinced he's a better player than Santander going forward.  He certainly hasn't been this season.

We  need to look at getting some starting pitching.  Trading Santander could be part of that.  But the starting pitching we should be targeting should be cost-controlled and service-time controlled.  Neither of which describes Snell.

Even think what is the upside?  He pitches great for us next season, we make the playoffs, and he walks in FA?

Edited August 1, 2022 by Pickles

[Pickles]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Snell has 5 seasons worth of fWAR that are higher than Santander this year and he is .2 behind him this year despite playing a lot less.

I'm looking at BWAR.  You know the one that looks at actual results and not hypotheticals. 

[Pickles]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Nah, I think the familiarity has a lot to do with this board's interest in Snell.  I hardly saw a mention of Luis Castillo on here in recent weeks.  

I agree that Santander isn't a guy that brings back much.  Solid player but there's nothing outstanding about him.  And yes, very replaceable.  

I don't want to trade Santander now because I think he's more valuable next year.  In the same that Mullins is more valuable this year than last even though he played much better last season.  So I agree he isn't going to bring back some top 50 prospect.

And yes, he's replaceable.  Everybody is replaceable.  That's not a reason to trade anybody.

[waroriole]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Also - and I can't believe I'm actually saying this- I'd like to see what the Orioles could do with Snell from a coaching/analytics perspective.  

If he’s be willing to listen to the philosophy of “throw it over the plate and let your stuff play” he’d be awesome. Everything I’ve seen from him makes me think he’s not receptive to coaching. 

[Pickles]

24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Please remember to make it's own thread if a trade is actually made. Thanks.

This makes me think you've heard something.  

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Nah, I think the familiarity has a lot to do with this board's interest in Snell.  I hardly saw a mention of Luis Castillo on here in recent weeks.  

I agree that Santander isn't a guy that brings back much.  Solid player but there's nothing outstanding about him.  And yes, very replaceable.  

Well, I’m really the only one pushing for Snell.

[btdart20]

29 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I think it's the Rays thing and people actually know who he is.  If he pitched in Milwaukee people here would be a lot less aware of him.

He's not a bad pitcher.; he's clearly talented. He's probably a bad target though, considering his current team is going all in to win, and want to dump at the same time.  They clearly don't think he's doing much to help them win.

He's expensive.  He's hurt all the time.  And his last four seasons, and really his entire career with one exception, has been fairly pedestrian.

If he was passing through waivers, maybe- MAYBE- you could convince me to take on his salary.

But giving up a cost-controlled and solid young major leaguer like Santander, no.  That's insanity.

Any bump he's had from pitching well in AL East has worn off through the injury stigma right?  Throw out everything prior to 2019 (2018 being his CY year).

2019 - 23 starts (i.e. he did miss time for injury but still started 2/3 of the year).  Posted a 103 ERA+.  

2020 - 11 starts (for context Lyles had 12 starts ).  127 ERA+  

2021 - 27 starts (missed what 7 starts assuming 34 is average).  Posted a 92 ERA+  

2022 - 12 starts (missed a few early this season).  Posting an 86 ERA+.  

 

To get SSS - Since the start of July he's posted a 2.81 ERA with a 3.28 FIP.  And that includes his worst outing of the year in Colorado's light air.  In other words, he's still got the TOR hope.

If we're hoping to make any type of run in the playoffs, we have to match up with whomever in the playoffs game for game.  We need a hope of a TOR.  No one on the current active staff has the hope of upside that Snell does.  Plus, that hope carries into next year.  It's the type of risk I'm game for at this point.  The financial flexibility and minor league depth still allows for a narrowed focus of spending in the off season (namely SP).

To summarize:  Sure, Snell is flawed.  But it's not like we're trading away a crop of top prospects either (like getting Castillo or Montas). 

Not trading anyone is fine.  But (IMHO) it's just angling toward not making a playoff push.  In the playoffs, we would need a TOR.  Snell is not currently considered a TOR arm.  But July shows he still has it in there.  Maybe it lowers the chance of making the playoffs (adding injury and rookie risk), but if Snell continues his July success, then he's a TOR arm that can match zeroes with the studs in the playoffs.

[Moose Milligan]

15 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I don't want to trade Santander now because I think he's more valuable next year.  In the same that Mullins is more valuable this year than last even though he played much better last season.  So I agree he isn't going to bring back some top 50 prospect.

And yes, he's replaceable.  Everybody is replaceable.  That's not a reason to trade anybody.

How's Santander going to be more valuable next year?  And how is Mullins more valuable this year than last year when he's not nearly as good?  

How is the fact that players are replaceable not a reason to trade them?  I have so many questions here.

[Sports Guy]

17 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I don't want to trade Santander now because I think he's more valuable next year.  In the same that Mullins is more valuable this year than last even though he played much better last season.  So I agree he isn't going to bring back some top 50 prospect.

And yes, he's replaceable.  Everybody is replaceable.  That's not a reason to trade anybody.

Your overrating of Santander is quite entertaining.  
 

 

Edited August 1, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Moose Milligan]

23 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You know K rates, and FIP, and all that, are all well and good, but there comes a time when you actually have to deliver on the field, and Snell's rarely done that.  Again, he's about to be 30 and he's had one season of his career worth more than 1.5 WAR.

I'm not convinced he's a better player than Santander going forward.  He certainly hasn't been this season.

We  need to look at getting some starting pitching.  Trading Santander could be part of that.  But the starting pitching we should be targeting should be cost-controlled and service-time controlled.  Neither of which describes Snell.

Even think what is the upside?  He pitches great for us next season, we make the playoffs, and he walks in FA?

How can you say K rates are all well and good but then there needs to be a time to deliver on the field?  Isn't a high k rate delivering on the field?

[Pickles]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

How can you say K rates are all well and good but then there needs to be a time to deliver on the field?  Isn't a high k rate delivering on the field?

You know what I mean.  Saying he strikes out a bunch of guys (in the 5 innings he pitches a month) is kinda missing the big part of the picture there, which is the 5 innings a month.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

You know what I mean.  Saying he strikes out a bunch of guys (in the 5 innings he pitches a month) is kinda missing the big part of the picture there, which is the 5 innings a month.

He's at 61 innings this year, I think that's more than 5 innings a month.

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

How can you say K rates are all well and good but then there needs to be a time to deliver on the field?  Isn't a high k rate delivering on the field?

He is a guy saying no to Snell partly because of durability and yet he thinks Santander is someone to hang onto even though he has as bad, if not worse, durability issues.  I don’t think logic is part of this.  
 

He likes AS.  Ok.   But rationally, no GM(if budget wasn’t easy), would turn down AS for Snell if they had our prospects and long term outlook between the OF and pitching.

Edited August 1, 2022 by Sports Guy