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Tuesday, July 26: Orioles vs Rays


SteveA

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    • Why does everybody want to jump and label a kid so fast? What is this, his 2nd major-league season? Yes, certainly they shouldn't go into next year thinking he's a lock for 30+ starts and 180-200 innings but we can't say he's already reached his peak either. 
    • And their defense is very good. To put things in perspective, the Tigers collective dWAR is +0.5. The Orioles is -2.8. Minnesota -4.1, Yankees -0.3, Houston -0.1, Seattle +2.0, Royals at +2.5. The Royals really standout as most of that value is driven by Fermin (catcher) and Witt.  But I think my point is that the Tigers have excellent pitching (starting pitching and bullpen) as well as excellent defense. And they're not putrid with the bats.  I would say the one saving grace about the Tigers is they don't run much. 
    • We could have easily swept Detroit in Baltimore, the lineup we have now is not the lineup they faced. It doesn't matter who the opponent is, just win.
    • Both of them are important to consider here. They could have a mediocre offense every single game of the season, but if the pitching is elite (and it is!), it'll carry them.  We have 6 games against the Tigers this year. And yes, most of them were without the cadre of regulars. But here are the offensive numbers against them: .211/.282/.392 - .674 OPS They scored 20 runs in 6 games against them. Barely scraping 3 R/G. And a good portion of them coming in *1* game.  Out of the WC potentials the O's could face, here are their R/G: Royals: 29 in 6 games = 4.8 R/G Twins: 22 in 3 = 7.3 R/G Mariners: 27 in 6 = 4.5 R/G Tigers: 20 in 6 = 3.3 R/G Out of all the playoff teams, the best RA/G are the Mariners (3.75), Guardians (3.85), and Tigers (4.96). For the playoffs, you want to look at who you're facing on the bump. Which team scares you the most? Because if you can't hit against the team, it doesn't matter what the opposing offense is.  Also you'll want to consider the best fielding teams, too.   Seems to me you'd want to face the team you matchup best against *and* who has the worst defense and worst pitching, because presumably your 3 starters (Burnes, Eflin, Kremer) should be able to hold teams in check. 
    • I'd prefer Detroit - they've been so hot for so long they should be due to cool off. KC has been just the opposite. 
    • I'd say the Royals...pitch around Witt and Salvy Perez who seems to have had our number in recent years.  The rest of their lineup isn't too imposing. Wacha  -a guy I wanted this offseason and was laughed at for wanting him- has a 2.64 ERA over his last 15 starts.  He's the soft-tossing type that gives our lineup fits and, IIRC, he was great against us earlier this year.  Lugo has had a great year, so has Ragans.  Their starters are good. But they're 3-7 over their last 10 while the Tigers are 8-2.  A lot of the postseason, IMO, is catching teams at the right/wrong time.  This could all change by next week but the Tigers are hot, the Royals are not... Then again, I said I wanted to face Texas in the first round last year and look what happened.  So who knows.  
    • Would much rather face KC and to me it’s not close.    game 1 agains Skubal is an L. They’ve proven they can beat us with a bullpen game, a bullpen only behind CLE as best in the AL.
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