Holliday at 1 overall

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sick of this narrative already.

The O's picked a player 1-2 in 2020 that immediately missed a season and a half and no one blamed Elias for the injury.

This is insulting.  

Players get hurt and it's a shame.

I must be missing what’s bothering you.  He’s saying that some people will criticize Elias no matter what he does, and if he’d picked Jones, some people would be saying he should have known Jones had a shoulder problem.  Which of course would be ridiculous, but there were posters who questioned why Elias didn’t know about Kjerstad’s myocarditis, as I’m sure you recall.  So that’s his point.  What’s the narrative you are sick of?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I must be missing what’s bothering you.  He’s saying that some people will criticize Elias no matter what he does, and if he’d picked Jones, some people would be saying he should have known Jones had a shoulder problem.  Which of course would be ridiculous, but there were posters who questioned why Elias didn’t know about Kjerstad’s myocarditis, as I’m sure you recall.  So that’s his point.  What’s the narrative you are sick of?

I've seen multiple posts about how folks would blame Elias for Jones' injury and it's nonsense since we as a fan base just went through something very similar and no one here reacted in the manner that folks are proclaiming.

 

No need to use a kid getting hurt as an excuse to score an internet point against the Gm.

Folks can give.the Elias critics some smidgen of credit.

 

 

 

[yark14]

5 hours ago, tinman said:

Not knocking this kid, but can somebody explain to me why he was drafted 1 overall? With Adley it was an obvious pick. He was a college player. Exceptional plate discipline. Above average MLB hitter and above average MLB defensive catcher. A rare find.

 

Holliday is a high school Shortstop. But does he really have MLB caliber SS talent? Does he really have the tools to be an above average defensive SS at the MLB level? His arm isn't that great according to the scouting reports. Does he have the quickness and athletic ability to truly play SS? Most top high schoolers start at SS, but then have to move to 3B because they can't cut it as a pro level SS. Hell, many of them even have to move off 3B because they can't cut the mustard at 3B either. End up moving to corner outfield or 1B once they make it to AA. An above league average defensive shortstop is one hell of a find at the MLB level. I don't know, from reading the scouting reports it sounds as though he won't be a plus MLB defender at SS or he will have to move off SS. What about his hitting. We will see. He's not projected to be a big power hitter. 

 

Wishing him all the luck as an O's fan, but these high school kids are risky picks.

 

 

Curious, who would you have picked instead?

Every single draft analyst worth anything said it was a coin flip between Holliday, Jones, and Termarr.  All high school bats.
 

[sevastras]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Sounds like a vacation near the Grand Tetons.   Which I’d love to do sometime.  

I live an hour south and have a friend with a cabin(not rustic) at the base. Spent the weekend up there this past.  Welcome any time.   I would seriously put you up and take you around. Probably would want to hit Yellowstone too being that close. 

[Moose Milligan]

You guys disappoint me. You do realize there was nothing you could say to get the OP to change his mind, right?

Although I did get to see CoC downvote a weird take and be uppity about it, that doesn’t happen often. Worth the price of admission. 

[sevastras]

27 minutes ago, yark14 said:

Curious, who would you have picked instead?

Every single draft analyst worth anything said it was a coin flip between Holliday, Jones, and Termarr.  All high school bats.
 

Judging from the post, they have no idea or clue who may have been a better pick. Typical casual fan. 
on another note, people mentioning he looks like a child or hasn’t reached puberty.  I have said in the past a million times, when you draft or sign a young kid, you want them to still look like a young kid. If they look like a 35 year old man at 16, they have no where to go physically and you may have missed their physical peak. 

[Sports Guy]

If only we had discussed this topic on this site before….

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, sevastras said:

I live an hour south and have a friend with a cabin(not rustic) at the base. Spent the weekend up there this past.  Welcome any time.   I would seriously put you up and take you around. Probably would want to hit Yellowstone too being that close. 

I may take you up on that!   I’ve been to each park twice, but not in 30 years.   Would love to go back.

[joelala]

This is a weird thread. 

[RZNJ]

Please give the Elias critics a smidgen of credit before this thread goes totally off the rails.

[foxfield]

15 hours ago, tinman said:

Not knocking this kid, but can somebody explain to me why he was drafted 1 overall? With Adley it was an obvious pick. He was a college player. Exceptional plate discipline. Above average MLB hitter and above average MLB defensive catcher. A rare find.

 

Holliday is a high school Shortstop. But does he really have MLB caliber SS talent? Does he really have the tools to be an above average defensive SS at the MLB level? His arm isn't that great according to the scouting reports. Does he have the quickness and athletic ability to truly play SS? Most top high schoolers start at SS, but then have to move to 3B because they can't cut it as a pro level SS. Hell, many of them even have to move off 3B because they can't cut the mustard at 3B either. End up moving to corner outfield or 1B once they make it to AA. An above league average defensive shortstop is one hell of a find at the MLB level. I don't know, from reading the scouting reports it sounds as though he won't be a plus MLB defender at SS or he will have to move off SS. What about his hitting. We will see. He's not projected to be a big power hitter. 

 

Wishing him all the luck as an O's fan, but these high school kids are risky picks.

 

 

Ok tinman....I will give it an honest shot.  I think the idea that there was not an overwhelming absolute #1 pick like the Adley pick is fair.  However, with the Orioles clearly in the running for the #1 pick the players at the top were widely discussed for over a year.  

For example last year at this time, the consensus #1 was Elijah Green, who is also a draftee out of High School.  Last year we checked the standings daily to see if we could beat out Arizona for Green.  

Green was joined in the fish bowl by Druw Jones who rose and replaced Green as the top pick this spring only to be joined by Termarr Johnson and later by our own Jackson Holliday as HS players in the mix as being contenders for the #1 overall pick.  There were college players in the mix if for no other reason than the fact that Elias has shown a bit of a preference for established college bats so names like Brooks Lee and even Jacob Berry got discussed.

Another important factor is that the top end college pitching was largely pushed out of top contention due to injuries or medical questions.  Most folks saw no pitcher being taken in the top 10 in this years draft, but Kumar Rocker of course went #3 to Texas after not getting a contract from the Mets after last years draft.

There were many discussions here and elsewhere.  Should the Orioles leverage $ and go underslot?  Should they take the best player on their list?  Should they go HS? Or college?  

There is always, always risks with any pick.  There are never sure things.  And HS players carry arguably more risk because there is more development , physical and emotional that needs to occur.  But this year, it looked very much like a year for the Orioles to take either:

Druw Jones or Holliday.  Both kids of MLB fathers.  Both kids with impressive projections to play key defensive positions (CF, SS).  Jones potentially has a higher ceiling if his projections max out, perhaps Holliday has a higher floor but maxing out his projections would be impressive too.

It appears, based on contracts that Baltimore took the player they thought the highest of out of the entire draft.  Yes, he could still bust.  That is the game.

I don't know if that helps.  It is very brief synopsis of some very elaborate opinions shared on this topic extensively here, but other places as well, over the last 16+ months.

And just out of curiosity.  Is it just the fact that Holliday is a HS kid?  The fact that he appears to be 12?  Or was there someone that you personally hoped the Orioles would surprise with?  Rocker perhaps?

Anyway thanks for posting.

Edited July 28, 2022 by foxfield