Its Time

[wildcard]

I am not a big trade guy.  I like to see the O's development their players and keep them as much as possible but I look at where the O's are and its time.

Henderson and Westburg  are hitting well and will have close to 200 plate appearances at AAA at the deadline.  That gives the O's:

Infield - Mountcastle, Mateo, Urias, Henderson, Westburg and Vavra.   Yes, Odor is still here but if Henderson and Westburg are ready they have to play.

Outfield - Hays, Mullins, Santander, Stowers, McKenna.  With Cowser a few months away.

Even with the DH that is too many guys that need playing time.

The O's need starters.  So if Elias sees a controllable starter,  there may be a deal in there  somewhere.   Whether it happens at the deadline or the off season it looks like  it is bound to happen.

I see Henderson and Westburg readiness for the majors as the key to dealing.

[Aristotelian]

I do think we could start to think about moving expendable prospects (I'm thinking Vavra and Prieto) and/or guys like Mateo/Urias/Tate/Lopez from the MLB roster. Lots of ways to play it. But it doesn't have to be now, could also be in the offseason. 

[Moose Milligan]

If they're going to trade anyone and still attempt for an outside shot at a .500 season or a wild card berth, I wouldn't touch the bullpen.  It's the unit on this team that it's the biggest strength.  

 

[RVAOsFan]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

If they're going to trade anyone and still attempt for an outside shot at a .500 season or a wild card berth, I wouldn't touch the bullpen.  It's the unit on this team that it's the biggest strength.  

 

I agree with this statement with the exception of Lopez.  A lot of teams have significantly over paid for back end bullpen guys at the deadline in previous years.  If we can get a team to do that for Lopez then I say do it.  I think he is at peak value right now and only going to come down to earth.  I would prefer to see Bautista closing anyway.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I do think we could start to think about moving expendable prospects (I'm thinking Vavra and Prieto) and/or guys like Mateo/Urias/Tate/Lopez from the MLB roster. Lots of ways to play it. But it doesn't have to be now, could also be in the offseason. 

I don't know why you would trade from the pen.

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I agree with this statement with the exception of Lopez.  A lot of teams have significantly over paid for back end bullpen guys at the deadline in previous years.  If we can get a team to do that for Lopez then I say do it.  I think he is at peak value right now and only going to come down to earth.  I would prefer to see Bautista closing anyway.

We're in agreement here.  As much as I like him, I just think this is a one year wonder story.  While he's been very good, he's not bulletproof.  Bautista looks like the closer of the future, I agree.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

43 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

We're in agreement here.  As much as I like him, I just think this is a one year wonder story.  While he's been very good, he's not bulletproof.  Bautista looks like the closer of the future, I agree.

This is why I'm open to trading Lopez if Elias gets an offer of a couple legit young prospects. Even relievers who are having elite seasons tend to fade out rather quickly. Relief pitchers staying elite for a decade like Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman are few and far between.

If you get the opportunity to sell high on a reliever, it's a move you have to consider unless your team is all in on a World Series run. It's only a move you make if Elias gets overwhelmed by a trade offer for Lopez, and Elias should be listening to offers just in case. 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I don't know why you would trade from the pen.

Well, it's pretty simple why.

You could extract the most possible future value while losing the least possible future value.

[interloper]

I sure hope they have something up their sleeves with the trade deadline because it sure feels like they are waiting for it to pass before making much-needed changes to this roster. I have faith in Elias but I am getting impatient for sure. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I don't know why you would trade from the pen.

Just depends on the return. If they could help net us a controlled #1 or #2 starter I think it could be worth it. I would not trade all of those players but would be listening to offers.

[jamalshw]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

I sure hope they have something up their sleeves with the trade deadline because it sure feels like they are waiting for it to pass before making much-needed changes to this roster. I have faith in Elias but I am getting impatient for sure. 

I expect something to happen, but it's hard to predict what exactly. I hope that they acquire a controllable pitcher. With Wells' injury the rotation could use some help for this year (not that I expect us to go anywhere, but we don't need to tax the pen even more than we already are). That, however, feels a lot like the faint hope this offseason for a guy like Correa. It makes sense to do it, but I don't really think it'll happen ultimately. 

Instead, I expect a deal of Mancini and maybe Tate for a near-ready prospect or two. And I wouldn't be surprised by a trade of Lopez and/or Santander. I don't expect Mullins, Hays or anyone else mentioned would go anywhere. I also don't expect all four of Mancini, Santander, Tate and Lopez to be dealt, but I do think at least one is traded away. 

I don't think the .500 record and extra playoff team will convince Elias to change his plans for this season. I still think this is a growth/building for the future season and not one that the front office has any illusions of playoff baseball for even with where they are in the standings. That said, I do think the team may now have higher hopes for 2023 instead of 2024. 

In the end, I do think something will happen. I just don't know what or to what extent. The Royals' return for Benintendi does concern me a bit as I wasn't all that impressed (though it was a quantity over quality return).

[wildcard]

56 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, it's pretty simple why.

You could extract the most possible future value while losing the least possible future value.

Sometimes present value and value in the near future are more important than possible future value.

[Pickles]

43 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sometimes present value and value in the near future are more important than possible future value.

Sure.   I was just telling you why somebody would be open to trading from the pen.

[now]

On 7/28/2022 at 10:06 AM, wildcard said:

Sometimes present value and value in the near future are more important than possible future value.

Sure but the point remains: relievers are the riskiest bet going forward, and also the easiest to replace (at least, under the O's current talent/pitching gurus). 

[Three Run Homer]

Westburg, Henderson and Vavra are all ready for major league playing time.  If we want to deal from our position of strength, then the guys we should be shopping are Urias and Mateo.