Jorge Lopez traded to Twins for pitching prospects (edit)

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

12 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Buster loves the O’s

Nevermind looks like Buster is linking to another writer at ESPN. But I'm not surprised Buster is plugging this hot take article.

Edited August 2, 2022 by OsFanSinceThe80s
misread the post

[clapdiddy]

5 minutes ago, drdelaware said:

Buster is a douche.  No one knows how this trade will work out.  Just some writer who probably never played the game.

It wasn't Buster, but his link went to some guy named Bradford Doolittle.  First thing Bradford needs to do is fact-check as he labels Lopez a "LHP".

[interloper]

17 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDe89ckqPdM

Fast forward to 3:10 in the video to see the Povich highlights.

A lefty with #45. Visions of Bedard...

[e16bball]

6 minutes ago, drdelaware said:

Buster is a douche.  No one knows how this trade will work out.  Just some writer who probably never played the game.

Doolittle gave them an F for the Mancini trade as well. Said he didn’t care if Seth Johnson ended up winning a Cy Young, it would still be an F because the Orioles “owe” the fans a run at the 2022 Wild Card after being so bad for so long. 

I guess on some level, you can understand where he’s coming from, but…kinda looking for a little more professional analysis and a little less pearl-clutching histrionics from my baseball writers.

[GoldGlove21]

Pop and Bass just netted the Marlins Jordan Groshans.  Groshans is not having a good year, but still.  

[Baltimorecuse]

I didn't like the Mancini trade for personal reasons.  I really liked him.  However, it was the smart move.

Lopez did not fill me with confidence as a closer.  We got amazing mileage out of him.

Elias has proven he knows what he's doing.  I'm ready to keep the faith.

 

[GoldGlove21]

Just now, e16bball said:

Doolittle gave them an F for the Mancini trade as well. Said he didn’t care if Seth Johnson ended up winning a Cy Young, it would still be an F because the Orioles “owe” the fans a run at the 2022 Wild Card after being so bad for so long. 

I guess on some level, you can understand where he’s coming from, but…kinda looking for a little more professional analysis and a little less pearl-clutching histrionics from my baseball writers.

If Seth Johnson wins a Cy Young it will be one of the best trades ever. I think that statement alone makes his comment just biased. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

How do you define better?  I don’t think his ERA will be better but I also don’t think that means he will have pitched worse either.

I wrote an article 6-8 weeks about how I thought Lopez was going to regress.  My reasons were a K rate that was good but not great, walk rate too high and not missing enough bats.  I felt he would still be a very good reliever but not the 1ish ERA guy he was.

Since then, the K rate has risen and the BB rate has gotten better.  The missed bats number has gotten better but still isn’t ideal.

I think it’s pretty likely, barring any injuries, that he is a sub 3 ERA guy for the next few years.  By that definition, I don’t merely mean his ERA will definitely be under 3, after all, a reliever can have one or 2 bad outings and that effects his ERA in a big way.

But a K rate of 9.5-10.5, a walk rate under 3.5, high GB rate, low HR rate, etc…I think he stays very effective and if he can miss a few more bats, he has elite upside imo.

His FIP right now is 2.99.  That puts him into he area where I think he is.  His WPA is also very high.

I too think Lopez will continue to be good, but do you think Bautista will not be as good? We basically just replaced him with a guy who started last year in A-ball. That's kinda how relief pitchers happen sometimes. I also think Bradish could be an impact reliever, potentially closer. The book is not done on Baumann in the pen. What if Denoyer and Armbruester were moved solely to the pen where they can work on the their mid 90s fastballs and perhaps improve the consistency of their slider and change?

Heck, our entire bullpen have been DFA'd, released or traded and it's one of the best bullpen's in baseball this year. 

I don't think you get an impact prospect when you trade Lopez, no matter how good he's been since moving to relief. So if the Orioles end up getting a starter on a winning future team along with a good bullpen arm, that's well worth giving up a guy who we literally replaced with just as good an option.

[ScGO's]

This is a really nice depth trade. Not sure if anyone has noticed that our milb pitching hasn't been too hot this year all the way through.

People may be poo-pooing Rojas and Nunez as "lottery tickets" but if you look at our FCL pitching numbers, they immediately become two of our top pitchers there, speaking statistically. Maybe these were guys that Elias and Perez tried to go after a few years back.

A first glance at Povich's numbers make him look like a poor man's DL Hall.  Seems to be rising on the Twins prospect lists. Nice to add a LHP to our current prospect crop of Hall and Rom.

Cano looks like he could immediately become Jorge Lopez. Hard thrower, good pedigree, just hasn't put it together at the big league level yet, but has proven all he had to at AAA.  I'm not going to hold his age against him.  He did really well in Cuba up until 2016, where he drops off the statistical map until he reappears in 2019 to throw 15 IP between Rookie and A ball. Then 2020 happened, and in 2021 he put up good numbers at AA/AAA. A lot of bullets left in his chamber even with him being 28. This year he has taken his licks at the MLB level, but Jorge took his licks for 4 years before putting it together. Could be an analytics driven move too. Watch him be another beast bullpen guy that Elias pulled out of nowhere.

 

[Brooks The Great]

1 minute ago, GoldGlove21 said:

Pop and Bass just netted the Marlins Jordan Groshans.  Groshans is not having a good year, but still.  

But still... what? Groshans' stock has been plummeting for 2 straight years. He has 1 home run in about .260 at bats this season. Flashes some plate disciple, but he's not a very appealing prospect at the moment.

If anything, it points to relievers not commanding much value. So it might actually justify the return Elias got a little more.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I too think Lopez will continue to be good, but do you think Bautista will not be as good? We basically just replaced him with a guy who started last year in A-ball. That's kinda how relief pitchers happen sometimes. I also think Bradish could be an impact reliever, potentially closer. The book is not done on Baumann in the pen. What if Denoyer and Armbruester were moved solely to the pen where they can work on the their mid 90s fastballs and perhaps improve the consistency of their slider and change?

Heck, our entire bullpen have been DFA'd, released or traded and it's one of the best bullpen's in baseball this year. 

I don't think you get an impact prospect when you trade Lopez, no matter how good he's been since moving to relief. So if the Orioles end up getting a starter on a winning future team along with a good bullpen arm, that's well worth giving up a guy who we literally replaced with just as good an option.

I don’t think Bautistas presence means you get rid of Lopez for too little.

[RarityFlaherty]

2 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Doolittle gave them an F for the Mancini trade as well. Said he didn’t care if Seth Johnson ended up winning a Cy Young, it would still be an F because the Orioles “owe” the fans a run at the 2022 Wild Card after being so bad for so long. 

I guess on some level, you can understand where he’s coming from, but…kinda looking for a little more professional analysis and a little less pearl-clutching histrionics from my baseball writers.

This guy sounds like an idiot. If we get a guy who ends up winning a Cy Young for a few months of Mancini, there’s no way it’s an F. Making decisions because you think you “owe” the fans something is just dumb. That’s why Elias is the GM for an actual baseball team and this guy is just a worthless sports writer who I now have zero respect for his opinion. 

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Doolittle gave them an F for the Mancini trade as well. Said he didn’t care if Seth Johnson ended up winning a Cy Young, it would still be an F because the Orioles “owe” the fans a run at the 2022 Wild Card after being so bad for so long. 

I guess on some level, you can understand where he’s coming from, but…kinda looking for a little more professional analysis and a little less pearl-clutching histrionics from my baseball writers.

Not bagging on anyone's opinion, but I have no idea who Doolittle is unless he talks to animals. 

Saying that, I'd have to 100% disagree with his statement. Elias is building a franchise that will compete year after year in the future. Trying to get some kind of wildcard this year is a bonus!

Besides, take away the human aspect of everyone rightfully loving Mancini, he's a DH with a .750 OPS who has hit 10 home runs this year. Now they traded their closer but have Bautista waiting to take his spot. Vavra will now get regular PAs vs righties and they can take a look at Diaz vs lefties (I'd still prefer Stowers in the OF and Vavra at 2B replacing Odor, but that's another thread).

I don't really see the team that much worse than it was for this year and now we have deeper pitching in the minors.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, GoldGlove21 said:

If Seth Johnson wins a Cy Young it will be one of the best trades ever. I think that statement alone makes his comment just biased. 

I didn't want to see Mancini go, but the Orioles got a good return for a DH/1B who is a decent hitter that becomes a free agent in two months. 

The days of trading Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell are over in MLB unless your team gets lucky in a trade. 

Edited August 2, 2022 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[terpfan101]

Not a terrible trade at first appearance, hopefully one of these guys becomes a #3/4 starter in which case this trade is an easy win. I just would have preferred quality over quantity. I certainly don't have the eye to judge these players but in looking at the Twins top prospects list, would have rather had 2-3 total players headlined by a guy like Steve Hajjar, Matt Canterino, or Marco Raya.

I suppose they weren't offering that but seems like so many of the O's trades since the Syd Thrift demolition in 2000 have been a great player for 4-5 guys and with biggest exception the Bedard trade (Jones and Tillman, not to mention a useful Sherrill) and Mike Bordick trade (Melvin Mora), most of the others have failed to produce anyone of significant value. This exercise was quite fun!

• Mike Bordick to the Mets. Received Pat Gorman, Leslie Brea, Mike Kinkade and Melvin Mora. (1 of 4)
• Harold Baines and Charles Johnson to the Chicago White Sox. Received Miguel Felix (minors), Juan Figueroa (minors), Jason Lakman (minors) and Brook Fordyce. (0 of 4)
• B.J. Surhoff and Gabe Molina to the Atlanta Braves. Received Trent Hubbard, Fernando Lunar and Luis Rivera. (0 of 3)
• Sidney Ponson to the San Francisco Giants. Received Ryan Hannaman (minors), Kurt Ainsworth and Damian Moss. (0 of 3)
• Miguel Tejada to the Houston Astros. Received Matt Albers, Mike Costanzo, Troy Patton, Dennis Sarfate and Luke Scott. (1.5 of 5 - Patton as .5 and Scott as 1)
• Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners. Received Tony Butler (minors), Adam Jones, Kam Mickolio, George Sherrill and Chris Tillman. (2.5 of 5)
• Ramon Hernandez and cash to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Brandon Waring (minors), Ryan Freel and Justin Turner. (0 of 3 - of note Turner became good after us)
• Manny Machado to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Yusniel Diaz (minors), Rylan Bannon, Dean Kremer, Zach Pop and Breyvic Valera. (Jury is still out here...maybe .5 of 5 for Kremer)
• Zack Britton to the New York Yankees. Received Cody Carroll, Josh Rogers and Dillon Tate. (1 of 3)
• Kevin Gausman and Darren O'Day to the Atlanta Braves. Received Brett Cumberland (minors), JC Encarnación (minors), Evan Phillips, Bruce Zimmermann and international bonus slot money. (0 of 4 right now with maybe Zimm as a possible hit)
• Jonathan Schoop to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Jean Carmona (minors), Luis Ortiz and Jonathan Villar. (1 of 3 for Villar)
• Dylan Bundy to the Los Angeles Angels. Received Kyle Brnovich (minors), Zach Peek (minors), Kyle Bradish and Isaac Mattson. (.5 of 4 at the moment for Bradish)

So in 22 years all of the trades of 1 or 2 O's in exchange for 3 or more players, I'd say 8 of 46 players received have been a success for the O's and 4 of 8 of those have come in two trades by MacPhail. I wonder how many of those were by design to get quantity or could we have had 1 higher rated player which may have hit.