Henderson, Hall, Westburg, and Stowers - Potential unintended consequence of the new service time rules?

[BohKnowsBmore]

As most here are aware, there were some changes made to the service time rules going into the season, specifically that top finishers in the RotY vote would be awarded a full year of service time. Teams with a top RotY finisher that was on the active roster to begin the season would receive draft pick compensation as an incentive. All together, the goal was to combat service time manipulation.

https://www.blessyouboys.com/2022/3/13/22972689/mlb-baseball-cba-tigers-rules-contracts-options-service-time-rookie-eligibility

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For one, the top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting in each league are automatically awarded a full year of service, regardless of how much they actually accrued that year. Secondly, teams that promote top prospects to their Opening Day rosters will be awarded draft pick compensation should that player finish in the top 3 of Rookie of the Year Voting and/or Top 5 in Cy Young/MVP Voting. The details on the exact compensation are not yet released but there will be at least some draft pick incentives to encourage teams to put forth their true best team on Opening Day.

For rookie eligible players that were not on the 2022 opening day roster such as Henderson, Hall, Westburg, and Stowers, there may now be an incentive to delay their call-up this year to preserve their rookie eligibility for 2023. Then, they could start on the 2023 opening day roster and be eligible for rookie postseason awards, leading to draft pick compensation and helping keep the talent "conveyor belt" going into the future.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/rules/rookie-eligibility

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A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons):

• 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.
• 45 total days on an active Major League roster during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List).

A player must have rookie eligibility to be considered for any MLB rookie awards -- such as the American League or National League Rookie of the Year Award -- or appear on any MLB Pipeline prospect lists.

 

Based on this, I now expect them to all be September-ish call-ups.

[spleen1015]

I believe it was posted before that a call up after August 23rd keeps their rookie status.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think Elias is holding back Hall, Westburg and Stowers over the chance they finish in the top 3 of RoY voting in 2023.

What kind of chance does that have of coming to pass?

I don't think you base your promotion schedule off of a 2.3% chance of something like that happening.

[BohKnowsBmore]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think Elias is holding back Hall, Westburg and Stowers over the chance they finish in the top 3 of RoY voting in 2023.

What kind of chance does that have of coming to pass?

I don't think you base your promotion schedule off of a 2.3% chance of something like that happening.

It is most certainly a countervailing incentive to accelerating it. 

Edited August 9, 2022 by BohKnowsBmore

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

It is most certainly a countervailing incentive to accelerating it. 

I think we've seen enough that I can, without undue fear of blowback, acknowledge that Elias, in general, has shown a reticence when it comes to promoting players to the ML team that predates this rule.

[nvpacchi]

It looks like to be awarded a full year of service time through the ROY voting, he also needs to be on ESPN, Baseball America, or MLB pipeline Top 100 prospect lists (at least two of the lists).

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/five-reasons-why-so-many-elite-prospects-made-opening-day-rosters/

To me, this seems like a foolish rule, and already would likely prevent Stowers from competing for an extra year in 2023.  It is also crazy to think that prospect gurus can have such a decided impact on the trajectory of a player's earning potential.  I doubt Sig and Elias do anything just because Kiley McDaniel and Jim Callis directionally agree with them.

 

EDIT: it looks like the Top 100 list rule is just for being on the opening day roster. It does make an interesting case study to see the value of an immediate draft pick versus the 7th year of service time for a player than may or may not pan out.  DL Hall seems like an obvious choice to start him in the MLB, Gunnar may be a more difficult decision.

Edited August 9, 2022 by nvpacchi

[joelala]

5 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

It looks like to be awarded a full year of service time through the ROY voting, he also needs to be on ESPN, Baseball America, or MLB pipeline Top 100 prospect lists (at least two of the lists).

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/five-reasons-why-so-many-elite-prospects-made-opening-day-rosters/

To me, this seems like a foolish rule, and already would likely prevent Stowers from competing for an extra year in 2023.  It is also crazy to think that prospect gurus can have such a decided impact on the trajectory of a player's earning potential.  I doubt Sig and Elias do anything just because Kiley McDaniel and Jim Callis directionally agree with them.

 

EDIT: it looks like the Top 100 list rule is just for being on the opening day roster. It does make an interesting case study to see the value of an immediate draft pick versus the 7th year of service time for a player than may or may not pan out.  DL Hall seems like an obvious choice to start him in the MLB, Gunnar may be a more difficult decision.

O wow I did not know about the top 100 list requisite. Yea, that seems like a wildly subjective caveat. I wonder which side fought for that. 

[Roll Tide]

44 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think Elias is holding back Hall, Westburg and Stowers over the chance they finish in the top 3 of RoY voting in 2023.

What kind of chance does that have of coming to pass?

I don't think you base your promotion schedule off of a 2.3% chance of something like that happening.

Me neither …. He’s taking the safe year preservation route. He’s basically said Odor and Phillips are going no where. Hell, Hyde couldn’t even keep Odor on the bench for a whole game. McKenna is playing well and contributing despite being used sporadically. Hall is not forcing his way on the roster. Even Vavra is having trouble getting in the lineup. Elias is now saying Mateo is part of the long term plan. Nevin could be sent down but is really getting a chance to play? I don’t think so and what are they going to do bring them up to sit on the bench? Like it or not Odor and Urias who is producing aren’t going to the bench or being DFA’d
 

Those guys may get a call up when the roster expands to 28 (3 players). But it wouldn’t surprise me if they went with extra relief pitchers.

It may not be popular with fans but those guys are going to be disappointed.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Roll Tide

[nvpacchi]

1 minute ago, joelala said:

O wow I did not know about the top 100 list requisite. Yea, that seems like a wildly subjective caveat. I wonder which side fought for that. 

But I think that is for any player, not just guys who finish in the top of ROY voting.

But it also seems strange, if it doesn't have a ROY stipulation.... Elias if he really wanted to could go crazy and have Westburg, Hall, Henderson, AND Cowser to have 4 comp picks? That seems like far too many, but also maybe an unintended consequence of the rule where a club has a glut of great prospects all graduating at the same time.

[geschinger]

48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think Elias is holding back Hall, Westburg and Stowers over the chance they finish in the top 3 of RoY voting in 2023.

What kind of chance does that have of coming to pass?

I don't think you base your promotion schedule off of a 2.3% chance of something like that happening.

It makes less sense for Hall, Westburg and Stowers.  But for someone like Gunnar and if he wasn't hurt maybe Grayson as well the calculus is completely different.  Unless of course they think they are overrated and not nearly as good as the rest of the industry thinks they are vs the other potential rookies.  Instead of earning a pick the odds are what I think is going to happen with Adley - no pick *and* no extra year of control.

I look at the Mariners and see a legitimate shot that they don't just get the one pick for RoY but that JRod has a legitimate shot to earn them another pick in 2023 and then another in 2024 if he continues to improve.   Adley could have been in the same place had he not gotten hurt.

Edited August 9, 2022 by geschinger

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, geschinger said:

It makes less sense for Hall, Westburg and Stowers.  But for someone like Gunnar and if he wasn't hurt maybe Grayson as well the calculus is completely different.  Unless of course they think they are overrated and not nearly as good as the rest of the industry thinks they are vs the other potential rookies.  Instead of earning a pick the odds are what I think is going to happen with Adley - no pick *and* no extra year of control.

I look at the Mariners and see a legitimate shot that they don't just get the one pick for RoY but that JRod has a legitimate shot to earn them another pick in 2023 and then another in 2024 if he continues to improve.   Adley could have been in the same place had he not gotten hurt.

If Adley had been promoted late last season it wouldn't be an issue.

 

I've been wondering about the Adley situation.

Anyone know exactly how all of this goes together?  Could the O's have put him on the 40 and 25 man rosters and then put him on the IL so he would have still qualified for the draft pick compensation? 

 

[geschinger]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If Adley had been promoted late last season it wouldn't be an issue.

 

I've been wondering about the Adley situation.

Anyone know exactly how all of this goes together?  Could the O's have put him on the 40 and 25 man rosters and then put him on the IL so he would have still qualified for the draft pick compensation? 

 

Yep, but the rule didn't exist then so that wasn't part of the equation.  

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

Yep, but the rule didn't exist then so that wasn't part of the equation.  

 

Shouldn't have needed to be a part of the equation.

[geschinger]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Shouldn't have needed to be a part of the equation.

Ideally no, but the rule changes were made because the logic of making decisions to maximize control for a player of his caliber made it the rational choice.  The new rules change that calculus.  I would have loved to have seen Adley up last year but I cannot blame Elias for being rational in his decision making.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, geschinger said:

Ideally no, but the rule changes were made because the logic of making decisions to maximize control for a player of his caliber made it the rational choice.  The new rules change that calculus.  I would have loved to have seen Adley up last year but I cannot blame Elias for being rational in his decision making.

I blame Angelos.  The team is winning this year by accident, not because they were expecting it.

If he had gone to Elias and said, starting in 2022, we are opening the checkbook and trying to win, I think Adley is up in 2021.  But since they were still good with not winning, they valued the service time higher.

Just don’t tell me that they did because Adley wasn’t ready.  That’s bs.