O's Fans Held Hostage - Day 18

[Sports Guy]

You're looking at this in the wrong way. None of our big 3 are "likely" relievers. So, we have that. All of our SP prospects on the other side of them may not pan out as ML-level starters and thus end up as relievers. This is the case with almost all MiL SP prospects.

But out of that number of SP prospects, there is a very strong chance that we'll find one or two ML starters.

That's how you project. While their baseline might be relief pitcher, they all may end up being starting pitchers. That's why you stockpile pitching prospects.

It's very very hard to stockpile pitchers who are guaranteed to be ML starting pitchers.

Especially when you look for the wrong thing in pitchers.

It all just goes back to my point...We don't have enough talent or depth, period. Whether that depth is in pitching or positional talent.

Now, I agree that the pitching depth is good but I don't think it is as good as we all think do to the idea that there is so many arms that are likely going to the pen.

It is why you see all the publications say we are great in the top 4 but very mediocre after that.

[Fairfax Bird]

I'll debate that one with you. He paid 5.5M for Freel. And is allowing 500k for the two minor leaguers. Freel is worth maybe half that. I really don't think he got a decent return. What he got was rid of Ramon who was probably going to play better in his contract year.

I expect Andy to do better in trading Ramon. I am kind of disappointed on that one.

Based on scouts' opinions of Hernandez I don't think he could have done better.

[Sports Guy]

Looks like Roch was reading this thread this afternoon.

http://masnsports.com/2008/12/defining-vacation.html

You certainly can't bash the man for taking a vacation...The hours these guys put in are incredible.

[ChaosLex]

Apologist!

I couldn't leave you on ignore for long, Jim.

[wildcard]

I think teams are between a rock and a hard place on where salaries will set with the 2nd tier players and below. Teams are worried about what the recession will do to attendance and at the same time if there's a big drop in salaries they have to worry about the union charging collusion. I think Jon Garland will be an example of where the second tier players benchmark in at.I can see hm taking a $2 million a year hit over normal circumstances.I don't think the O's will be all that affected by this because they are value shopping anyway.I'd be surprised if they spend more than $5 million a year on anybody.

I'm think $3m. However I think it might help the O's because they will get more for their 3m.

[Lucky Jim]

Especially when you look for the wrong thing in pitchers.

It all just goes back to my point...We don't have enough talent or depth, period. Whether that depth is in pitching or positional talent.

Now, I agree that the pitching depth is good but I don't think it is as good as we all think do to the idea that there is so many arms that are likely going to the pen.

It is why you see all the publications say we are great in the top 4 but very mediocre after that

I don't think you'll find that any major league scouting service or whatever thinks we're lacking depth at SP. We're very mediocre after the first 4 in part because we have no positional prospect depth.

We've done a very good job building pitching depth. I'd be interested in what an objective audit of our system would say.

I know Sickels thinks we should be pleased. Like to see what other sites say.

[The Rick]

Looks like Roch was reading this thread this afternoon.

http://masnsports.com/2008/12/defining-vacation.html

This is why I said this thread was embarrassing.

[Sports Guy]

I don't think you'll find that any major league scouting service or whatever thinks we're lacking depth at SP. We're very mediocre after the first 4 in part because we have no positional prospect depth.

We've done a very good job building pitching depth. I'd be interested in what an objective audit of our system would say.

I know Sickels thinks we should be pleased. Like to see what other sites say.

You know who are the important players in this organization?

Patton, Olson and Spoone.

Those are the only other 3 guys, assuming health, that I feel can be starting pitchers in the majors...Erbe has a chance but I think it is still too early to tell with him.

But those 3 guys are HUGE for the long term of this team.

[Sports Guy]

This is why I said this thread was embarrassing.

Bigbird didn't mention the vacation.

[Lucky Jim]

Especially when you look for the wrong thing in pitchers.

It all just goes back to my point...We don't have enough talent or depth, period. Whether that depth is in pitching or positional talent.

Now, I agree that the pitching depth is good but I don't think it is as good as we all think do to the idea that there is so many arms that are likely going to the pen.

It is why you see all the publications say we are great in the top 4 but very mediocre after that.

Outlook: Semi-positive as a long-term play. The Orioles have such an impressive collection of young pitching talent that one has to believe that some real improvements will be coming in the next few years. Wieters will be a massive piece in the run-scoring puzzle, but a man alone can't turn around an offense. Oh yeah, they're in the American League East, and that's its own kind of nightmare.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8185

Kevin Goldstein of BP on our outlook. From October 2008.

[Lucky Jim]

You know who are the important players in this organization?

Patton, Olson and Spoone.

Those are the only other 3 guys, assuming health, that I feel can be starting pitchers in the majors...Erbe has a chance but I think it is still too early to tell with him.

But those 3 guys are HUGE for the long term of this team.

I think those three are huge. I agree. I think Erbe is on track, for now. I also really like the Bundy and Drake selections. And, as I said, for different reasons, it's great to have Berken and DHernandez in the system.

I honestly think that there are only a handful of teams with better MiL pitching depth than us (A's, Texas?). Our problems are exacerbated by the lack of ML-level or ML-ready pitching talent. But that just means we need to move forward in the next draft (or in any Roberts trade).

[RShack]

For years I have seen the same people on this site praise our GMs when they were here...People would compare them to the previous regime and praise them for improving things and not make mistakes.

For years the same people have talked about how we are getting closer yet at the end of every year, our window to contend is pushed back another year or 2.

Its the same thing every year and every year...

Yep, it's the same thing, year after year.

Year after year, you preach "buy low and sell high"... yet whenever push comes to shove, you recommend doing just the *opposite*, just so you can see some Action, Action, Action.

• Like when you wanted to give Boras a blank check for Wieters... just to "get it done"... and the O's got him for way less than your "buy high" recommendation.
• Like when you wanted to move Bedard for 2 players less than what we got... just to "get it done"... and then, when the O's did better than you recommended, you invent some Phantom Mystery Deal that the O's supposedly missed out on, to justify your own "sell low" recommendation.

So, yeah, it's always the same: you preach one thing, but then when faced with Actual Decisions, you fold like a tent and want to "buy high and sell low", just to get Action, Action, Action.

The war on England is going slow? No big victory headlines lately? That's pathetic! We *need* Action Headlines! And we need 'em now!

So, let's quit standing around. Plan, shlman! Let's just *do* something! I know: Let's invade Russia!

;-)

SG, you're really good at dreaming up trade ideas. No doubt about that. It's a talent, and I don't have it.

But your judgment is compromised by your impatient nature and your belief that every O's GM is dumber than you.

If you had some insight into those things, you'd be way more effective as a pretend-GM. (Really, you would. No kidding.)

ps: This doesn't mean that I think you're supposed to agree with me about particulars. I don't think that.

[ChaosLex]

You know who are the important players in this organization?

Patton, Olson and Spoone.

Those are the only other 3 guys, assuming health, that I feel can be starting pitchers in the majors...Erbe has a chance but I think it is still too early to tell with him.

But those 3 guys are HUGE for the long term of this team.

Especially Spoone.

A rotation of...

Spoone

Matusz

Tillman

Arrieta

Guthrie

... would match up with anything the Rays, Skanks or Sux could throw at us, IMO.

Of course, there's two big IF's in that scenario.

1. Spoone's health

&

2. Whether or not all three of Matusz/Tillman/Arrieta pan out.

[Sports Guy]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8185

Kevin Goldstein of BP on our outlook. From October 2008.

But after our big 3, it is a bunch of good arms but not starting pitchers in all likelihood...It is why I have said that I have no worries about the future of the bullpen.

It is also probably why they drafted Matusz.

[ChaosLex]

[*] Like when you wanted to give Boras a blank check for Wieters... just to "get it done"... and the O's got him for way less than your "buy high" recommendation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't we give Wieters the 2nd highest signing bonus in MLB history?