Marlins Open to Trading from Pitching Surplus

[Sports Guy]

Doesn’t make much sense for the Os to trade assets for an IFer.  They don’t need IFers.

 

[btdart20]

22 hours ago, Mavericksouth said:

Jazz would solve your second base issues (why you guys keep playing Odor I have no idea), and Pablo is our second best pitcher.

Heading into 2022, we did not have much 2B/SS depth in the upper levels of our system (especially MLB/AAA).  So Odor was brought in to buy time for those in lower to develop.  So don't confuse the fact that we have Odor playing 2B as a gap in our org for 2023.  Unproven prospects?  Yes.  But not without very promising options.  To your point though, many fans are confused as to why he's still the guy just looking at the stats.  At worst, he's brought a palpable clubhouse swagger.  Which the team badly needed.  But 2022 has shown huge leaps in quite a few 2B options on the brink.  Just need one to hit (but I suspect more than 1 will be an MLB player) in 2023.

 

19 hours ago, Mavericksouth said:

LOL.  I mean it's not terrible from the marlins perspective.  I'd prefer cowser and Westburg though.  I'd give Lopez and maybe a Braxton Garrett for that. Two mlb starting pitchers for two talented but unproven prospects at the big league level. Seems fair to me. 

Cowser is our top position prospect (excluding Gunnar at this point) who will be MLB ready in 2023.  As someone else mentioned, Cowser is an Elias pick.  His approach with the bat is similar to Gunnar.  Without quite power upside and less zone discipline, but he swings at pitches that he thinks he can hit hard (and watches pitches that he doubts he can make solid contact with).  From a portfolio perspective, I doubt the O's really consider trading Cowser until the 1 or 2 guys from next wave of OFers are closer to the MLB (guys like Fabian, Kjerstad, Beavers).  If he's traded now, I suspect Elias would be looking for a Perez/Meyer type arm (if that even tempts him considering TANSTAAPP).  I doubt he's traded for a 2-year arm.

 

17 hours ago, Mavericksouth said:

I meant 10 pitchers from the big leagues to rookie ball. I like Alcantara, Lopez ,Luzardo, Rogers, Eury Perez, Max Meyer, Dax Fulton, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and probably Sixto Sanchez (if he stops being lazy) more than Hall. I like Jake Eder too 

Alcantara, Lopez, Perez, Meyer, and Luzardo are clearly ahead of Hall.  Rogers is questionable at this point.  I don't know enough about Fulton, Garrett (though he looks solid), or Eder.  Hard pass on Sixto.  I suspect Cabrera is a best comp in that grouping (but he's more proven than Hall).  Luzardo (2 plus pitch mix) is a bit more proven, but Hall (4 plus pitch mix) has a higher upside potential. 

Even if Hall doesn't land as a TOR arm, he'll likely be a solid RP.  Hall's progress is completely around his command/control.  And the O's pitching develop can point to Felix Bautista as proof positive that those changes can be made.  Felix Bautista had a 5.1 BB/9 in the minors.  2.9 BB/9 in the majors.  Becoming Tanner Scott is Hall's floor, but Hall has more variety in his plus pitch options. 

Hall could be included in some type of package.  I doubt it, but it's possible and justifiable.  

 

15 hours ago, Mavericksouth said:

This trade would intrigue me. Just out of curiosity to all O fans, why are you so willing to move Mullins? I think he is a top 10 center fielder in the MLB. While I love Cowser and his potential, I'm not necessarily sure he projects as a long term center field prospect. His struggles at AAA also concern me a tad. One of the reasons, I asked for Cowser as opposed to Mullins in my hypothetical trade is that I figured you all would be more willing to part with what may be (Cowser) as opposed to a sure and proven thing (Mullins). 

Either way, if you all did Mullins, Westburg, and Ortiz for Lopez, Eder, and McCambley, we could do business together I think. 

 

Mullins is only an option based on return and what happens in FA.  Mullins for Lopez might get it done.  But CF is thin in the O's org and Elias values defense up the middle.  On top of that, I suspect Elias has more willingness to trade from the MLB roster vs. the MiLB depth in many (most?) instances. 

Mateo might be available.  Mountcastle, Urias, Vavra, Santander, and Hays definitely would be.  I doubt the O's trade Westburg and Ortiz this off season since both of them would be 2023 options.  That said, it could happen as I know nothing about Eder or McCambley but it seems like too much of a short-term hit.

 

14 hours ago, StillanOfan said:

I do think our two teams match up well with trading from surplus assets. Hope we can work something out this winter which helps both clubs.  I am however leery of trading for a pitcher with only two years of control (Pablo Lopez) and no experience in the AL East plus the inherent injury risk to pitchers, without a larger deal in place.  
 

IMO, the NL East is just as grueling...  NYM, Philly, and Atl are every bit as tough as NYY, Toronto, and Tampa.  But agree with concern around the length of team control.  That's why MIA would be shopping him now too though.

12 hours ago, Mavericksouth said:

Thanks for the welcome. As far your trade proposal,  Mullins and Norby for Pablo Lopez and Jake Eder or Dax Fulton (one of but not both) could possibly work. The issue is, while I like Norby, he is exclusively a second baseman. The marlins are deficienct at shortstop. Therefore, if you guys gave westburg instead, that would be more enticing. 

Speaking for me personally,  I like big trades. I'm not a one for one, or two for two type of trade guy. I like deals similar to the juan soto deal. Maximize your value by adding more to the pot. Hence, why I said I would go with Chisolm and Lopez and maybe a young pitching arm like Eder for a Cowser, Westburg, and Mateo/urias. You guys get an all star second baseman with years of control left to pair with Gunnar an arm now (Lopez) and for the future (Eder). Meanwhile, we get Mateo or Urias, who is slick defensively, especially Mateo; Cowser, who for the next few years at least, resolves our center field problems; and Westburg, who can hit the ball (something the marlins seem unable to do). 

 

As exciting as Jazz is, I doubt he fits the Elias mold.  Honestly wouldn't be shocked if Ortiz posts a better OPS over the next 3-5 years than Jazz.  Maybe not as many SBs or HRs, but definitely a better OBP.  

If the Marlins have no SS, does Mateo and Santander (or Mountcastle) land Lopez?  

 

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I doubt the O's trade Westburg and Ortiz this off season since both of them would be 2023 options.

To clarify this:  I doubt both will be traded.  I can see one of them included in a package.

[Aristotelian]

12 hours ago, Mavericksouth said:

If the deal is Jazz, Pablo, and Eder for Cowser, Westburg, and Mateo, do O fans go for that deal? As a Marlins fan, it seems fair. Probably a little  too fair. Our second best pitcher, a young lefty who is a top 10 prospect in our system, and our best everyday player and an all-star. I almost feel like we would be giving up too much in the deal.

No for me. I still don't see why we'd be interested in Jazz. Why not just keep Westburg? If Jazz is good and healthy, why are you trying to trade him? Maybe you are expecting us to buy into his .860 over a small sample. 

Keep in mind, we have a much simpler path to acquiring pitching, which is to use some of our $100M or so of payroll flexibility to buy it.  

In some ways we are a good match, because Marlins have strength in pitching and we have strength in position players, especially infield. However, in a way we aren't because we are both run by savvy GM's who covet young players. And while we got a lot closer to the playoffs than anyone expected, I don't think we were a serious WS contender and I think we are still focused on the long haul. 

Is there any deal we can offer for Pablo (forget about the other guys for now) that doesn't involve Cowser? 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

No for me. I still don't see why we'd be interested in Jazz. Why not just keep Westburg? If Jazz is good and healthy, why are you trying to trade him? Maybe you are expecting us to buy into his .860 over a small sample. 

Keep in mind, we have a much simpler path to acquiring pitching, which is to use some of our $100M or so of payroll flexibility to buy it.  

In some ways we are a good match, because Marlins have strength in pitching and we have strength in position players, especially infield. However, in a way we aren't because we are both run by savvy GM's who covet young players. And while we got a lot closer to the playoffs than anyone expected, I don't think we were a serious WS contender and I think we are still focused on the long haul. 

Is there any deal we can offer for Pablo (forget about the other guys for now) that doesn't involve Cowser? 

Mullins for Lopez+ is a deal that makes sense for both sides in terms of satisfying needs.

You can argue that hurts the Os more than helps them in 2023.  I don’t think I would make that argument but it’s a fair one to make.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mullins for Lopez+ is a deal that makes sense for both sides in terms of satisfying needs.

You can argue that hurts the Os more than helps them in 2023.  I don’t think I would make that argument but it’s a fair one to make.

I'm open to trading Mullins but ideally I'd like to come out better than "even at best" for '23. With Hays underperforming and Stowers looking like a DH, it seems any trade of Mullins is going to hurt us in outfield as much as it helps our rotation. With our depth I would try to build a deal around prospects other than Cowser.

[RarityFlaherty]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mullins for Lopez+ is a deal that makes sense for both sides in terms of satisfying needs.

You can argue that hurts the Os more than helps them in 2023.  I don’t think I would make that argument but it’s a fair one to make.

If we traded Mullins, who would you put in center? And who would be our lead off hitter? The scouting reports on Cowser seem to think he might not stick at center, or at least the he will not be nearly as good defensively as Mullins. I think the downgrade in defense would be the biggest reason I’d want to keep Mullins. 

[MarCakes21]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

If the Marlins have no SS, does Mateo and Santander (or Mountcastle) land Lopez?  

 

Hope this doesn't get lost.  I think this is the foundation of a deal.  Trading Mateo + Santander/Mountcastle/Hays seems to make more sense than not given replacement parts internally and FA players available.  So what does Mateo + one of those guys net from Miami.  Lopez plus?

[Mavericksouth]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

Heading into 2022, we did not have much 2B/SS depth in the upper levels of our system (especially MLB/AAA).  So Odor was brought in to buy time for those in lower to develop.  So don't confuse the fact that we have Odor playing 2B as a gap in our org for 2023.  Unproven prospects?  Yes.  But not without very promising options.  To your point though, many fans are confused as to why he's still the guy just looking at the stats.  At worst, he's brought a palpable clubhouse swagger.  Which the team badly needed.  But 2022 has shown huge leaps in quite a few 2B options on the brink.  Just need one to hit (but I suspect more than 1 will be an MLB player) in 2023.

 

Cowser is our top position prospect (excluding Gunnar at this point) who will be MLB ready in 2023.  As someone else mentioned, Cowser is an Elias pick.  His approach with the bat is similar to Gunnar.  Without quite power upside and less zone discipline, but he swings at pitches that he thinks he can hit hard (and watches pitches that he doubts he can make solid contact with).  From a portfolio perspective, I doubt the O's really consider trading Cowser until the 1 or 2 guys from next wave of OFers are closer to the MLB (guys like Fabian, Kjerstad, Beavers).  If he's traded now, I suspect Elias would be looking for a Perez/Meyer type arm (if that even tempts him considering TANSTAAPP).  I doubt he's traded for a 2-year arm.

 

Alcantara, Lopez, Perez, Meyer, and Luzardo are clearly ahead of Hall.  Rogers is questionable at this point.  I don't know enough about Fulton, Garrett (though he looks solid), or Eder.  Hard pass on Sixto.  I suspect Cabrera is a best comp in that grouping (but he's more proven than Hall).  Luzardo (2 plus pitch mix) is a bit more proven, but Hall (4 plus pitch mix) has a higher upside potential. 

Even if Hall doesn't land as a TOR arm, he'll likely be a solid RP.  Hall's progress is completely around his command/control.  And the O's pitching develop can point to Felix Bautista as proof positive that those changes can be made.  Felix Bautista had a 5.1 BB/9 in the minors.  2.9 BB/9 in the majors.  Becoming Tanner Scott is Hall's floor, but Hall has more variety in his plus pitch options. 

Hall could be included in some type of package.  I doubt it, but it's possible and justifiable.  

 

Mullins is only an option based on return and what happens in FA.  Mullins for Lopez might get it done.  But CF is thin in the O's org and Elias values defense up the middle.  On top of that, I suspect Elias has more willingness to trade from the MLB roster vs. the MiLB depth in many (most?) instances. 

Mateo might be available.  Mountcastle, Urias, Vavra, Santander, and Hays definitely would be.  I doubt the O's trade Westburg and Ortiz this off season since both of them would be 2023 options.  That said, it could happen as I know nothing about Eder or McCambley but it seems like too much of a short-term hit.

 

IMO, the NL East is just as grueling...  NYM, Philly, and Atl are every bit as tough as NYY, Toronto, and Tampa.  But agree with concern around the length of team control.  That's why MIA would be shopping him now too though.

As exciting as Jazz is, I doubt he fits the Elias mold.  Honestly wouldn't be shocked if Ortiz posts a better OPS over the next 3-5 years than Jazz.  Maybe not as many SBs or HRs, but definitely a better OBP.  

If the Marlins have no SS, does Mateo and Santander (or Mountcastle) land Lopez?  

 

Santander is probably a non starter because we already have power bat corner outfielders with limited defensive skills (soler and garcia). Our biggest needs are centerfielder and shortstop. Mateo would be a nice start but we definitely need more. Probably Mateo, Westburg, and a Beavers? Or..Mullins and Westburg.

[Mavericksouth]

12 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

If we traded Mullins, who would you put in center? And who would be our lead off hitter? The scouting reports on Cowser seem to think he might not stick at center, or at least the he will not be nearly as good defensively as Mullins. I think the downgrade in defense would be the biggest reason I’d want to keep Mullins. 

That was my thought too as an outsider. I asked why everyone was so willing to move Mullins when I don't think you have great CF depth behind him. That said, if you all were to do Mullins and Westburg for Lopez and Rojas, we could do the deal, imo.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

If we traded Mullins, who would you put in center? And who would be our lead off hitter? The scouting reports on Cowser seem to think he might not stick at center, or at least the he will not be nearly as good defensively as Mullins. I think the downgrade in defense would be the biggest reason I’d want to keep Mullins. 

You have lots of options.  You could go the "Mateo route" in 2023...IE, hope for some offense and get great defense and go with a platoon of McKenna and Phillips (zero defensive drop off and perhaps an upgrade).  You could sign a guy like Keirmaier.  

As for the leadoff position, I am not that worried about that. If the Os play their cards right and upgrade the offense and bring up more guys, leadoff will take care of itself. The early leader IMO is Cowser.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Mavericksouth said:

That was my thought too as an outsider. I asked why everyone was so willing to move Mullins when I don't think you have great CF depth behind him. That said, if you all were to do Mullins and Westburg for Lopez and Rojas, we could do the deal, imo.

You have to get this idea out of your head that we need or want an IFer.  Neither is true.

And that deal is a huge win for the Marlins.

You may see Lopez for Mullins straight up but Mullins has had a higher WAR and has an extra year of team control.  He should have more value.

Edited September 19, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Mavericksouth]

51 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

No for me. I still don't see why we'd be interested in Jazz. Why not just keep Westburg? If Jazz is good and healthy, why are you trying to trade him? Maybe you are expecting us to buy into his .860 over a small sample. 

Keep in mind, we have a much simpler path to acquiring pitching, which is to use some of our $100M or so of payroll flexibility to buy it.  

In some ways we are a good match, because Marlins have strength in pitching and we have strength in position players, especially infield. However, in a way we aren't because we are both run by savvy GM's who covet young players. And while we got a lot closer to the playoffs than anyone expected, I don't think we were a serious WS contender and I think we are still focused on the long haul. 

Is there any deal we can offer for Pablo (forget about the other guys for now) that doesn't involve Cowser? 

Mullins and Westburg probably gets it done.

[RarityFlaherty]

6 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:

Hope this doesn't get lost.  I think this is the foundation of a deal.  Trading Mateo + Santander/Mountcastle/Hays seems to make more sense than not given replacement parts internally and FA players available.  So what does Mateo + one of those guys net from Miami.  Lopez plus?

From the way they’ve been playing, it feels like Mountcastle and Hays probably aren’t worth all that much in a trade, but it would help the offense to replace one of them with a more patient hitter. I’d love to see what we could get for either of them. 

I would think Mateo + Santander would get us Lopez plus, but I’m not sure I’d want to do that without knowing we have a bat we can add to the lineup to make up for losing Santander. 

[nvpacchi]

Even in a 'down' year Mullins has been a top 20 outfielder by fWAR this year, it puzzles me why some are so quick to include him in hypothetical trades.

Wouldn't the Marlins be better served to dip into our prospect pool?  Mullins may be 29-30 by the next time the Marlins competitive window comes around, unless there's a realistic expectation to compete next year, which they're may be.