Two Hall of Famers in one draft?

[Three Run Homer]

The 1976 Tigers picked Alan Trammel in round two and Jack Morris in round five.  This is the only time in the draft era in which one team has picked two Hall of Famers in the same draft.

So far.

Just sayin'.  

[jabba72]

I'll wait until their both all stars first before thinking about the hall of fame. Good time to be an O's fan though.

[SteveA]

Jon Ogden and Ray Lewis.

[Remember The Alomar]

I love the sentiment behind this topic, but as a I joked in a recent game thread, I now need to start a "We Should Send Mountcastle to Be Tried and Sentenced at the Hague" thread to balance out OH's cosmic energy. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, Remember The Alomar said:

I love the sentiment behind this topic, but as a I joked in a recent game thread, I now need to start a "We Should Send Mountcastle to Be Tried and Sentenced at the Hague" thread to balance out OH's cosmic energy. 

All these positive threads on Orioles prospects and I'm nervous we're going to tempt the baseball gods into doing something harmful against the team.

I'm not used to an Orioles organization loaded with prospects from Rookie Ball all the way up to MLB. 

Edited September 1, 2022 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[joelala]

46 minutes ago, Remember The Alomar said:

I love the sentiment behind this topic, but as a I joked in a recent game thread, I now need to start a "We Should Send Mountcastle to Be Tried and Sentenced at the Hague" thread to balance out OH's cosmic energy. 

Hahahahahhahahahahaha we love our hyperbole

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

The 1976 Tigers picked Alan Trammel in round two and Jack Morris in round five.  This is the only time in the draft era in which one team has picked two Hall of Famers in the same draft.

So far.

Just sayin'.  

Talk about jumping the gun

[Hallas]

16 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Talk about jumping the gunnar

ftfy

[Moose Milligan]

6 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

All these positive threads on Orioles prospects and I'm nervous we're going to tempt the baseball gods into doing something harmful against the team.

 

Angelos has been owner for close to 30 years, I dunno what else could happen. 

[btdart20]

“Hold my beer.” - Joey Ortiz

[ChosenOne21]

Adley and Gunnar are a long way from the hall of fame. The odds of both of them making it are probably like 1%

[Jagwar]

3 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Adley and Gunnar are a long way from the hall of fame. The odds of both of them making it are probably like 1%

According to the Baseball Hall of Fame, there have been about 22,000 players who have played in MLB, and 268 have made it to the HOF (1.2%).  

If my math is correct, assuming either player making it to the HOF is an independent event, you multiply 1.2% x 1.2% to determine the chance that BOTH are hall of famers, which is 0.0144%. That's like 6900 to 1 odds. 

[Sports Guy]

And Jack Morris has no business being in the HOF.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And Jack Morris has no business being in the HOF.

#BetterThanBaines

[DrungoHazewood]

27 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Adley and Gunnar are a long way from the hall of fame. The odds of both of them making it are probably like 1%

What percentage of players in MLB history are Hall of Famers?  There are 268 players who've been inducted as players.  Probably a handful more who were really players but pre-1876, so let's just say 275.  Gunnar Hendeson was the 22,806th player in MLB history according to Baseball Reference.  That means 1% of MLB players get a plaque, give or take.

We know that Henderson (and Rutschman) are more highly regarded than an average MLB player, far more, really.  Those 22,806 includes Jeff Tackett, Ryan Flaherty, Caleb Joseph, David Newhan.  Players who had essentially 0% chance of going to the Hall when they were called up.  They were often just too old to have 10 productive years, and just not talented enough.

If you look at #1 overall picks there were 45 between 1965 and 2010.  ARod, Chipper, Griffey, Mauer, Baines... all either HOFers, soon to be, or would be if not for PEDs.  Bryce Harper is a probable HOFer.  Strasburg, Cole, Correa, Price... plausible.  So among #1 picks we're looking at let's say seven out of 45, or 16%.  

#2 there are three out of 45, or 7%.  But think about it... these draft comps aren't that gret because even top picks have to navigate the minors, and many don't get there with the fanfare of Gunnar or Adley. There have been five #2s through 2015 who never played in the majors.  Another 15 or so didn't really do anything in the majors. Pick a name... Tyler Houston.  #2 overall in '89, had a .686 OPS in the minors, didn't reach the majors until 1996, clearly not on Gunnar or Adley's level as a prospect.

What would probably be useful is to look at Baseball America top five overall prospects and see what level of success they had.  But I don't know of a simple way to do that.

They've been handing out Rookie of the Year awards since 1947, one for MLB the first two years, one for each league since so 134 total.  We don't have a great gauge on the careers of the recent ones, so lets knock off the last 14 and stop at 2015.  Roughly 25 of them are or will/should be HOFers, or 21%.  

So I haven't really quantified their odds, but it has to be much more than 1%.  Just not quite sure how much more.  I'd guess something like 10-20%.  If they have a solid first 2-3 years that will go up pretty rapidly.