Guess who is second on the team in Baserunning Runs?

[Frobby]

I won’t keep you in suspense, it’s Adley.

Fangraphs:

Mateo 4.9

Rutschman 4.6

Mullins 3.1

BB-ref:

Mateo 5

Rutschman 3

McKenna 2

Mullins 2

He’s not a burner, but he’s got decent speed and he’s a smart, instinctive baserunner who knows when to take an extra base.   

[glenn__davis]

Oh what a shocker, a baseball skill that Adley is good at.  As I've said before, a lot of guys play baseball, but some are born to be baseball players. 

[OriolesMagic83]

I can't remember Adley making a bone headed play on the bases.  He might have made one.  Other players have made multiple baserunning blunders to cost the O's runs or kill a big inning.

[spiritof66]

He's on base a lot more than most of his teammates.

[rm5678]

10 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I can't remember Adley making a bone headed play on the bases.  He might have made one.  Other players have made multiple baserunning blunders to cost the O's runs or kill a big inning.

Yes, even Mullins made a baserunning blunder yesterday.

[DrungoHazewood]

22 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Other players have made multiple baserunning blunders to cost the O's runs or kill a big inning.

 

12 hours ago, rm5678 said:

Yes, even Mullins made a baserunning blunder yesterday.

Are they blunders, or did they just get thrown out?  The optimal amount of being thrown out on the bases is not zero.  If you're never thrown out it's because you're being so conservative that you're leaving runs on the table. For base stealing the break-even point is something like 75% in an average situation.  You can make similar calculations for baserunning, too.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

Are they blunders, or did they just get thrown out?  The optimal amount of being thrown out on the bases is not zero.  If you're never thrown out it's because you're being so conservative that you're leaving runs on the table. For base stealing the break-even point is something like 75% in an average situation.  You can make similar calculations for baserunning, too.

Logically, I’d think the risk/reward is about the same.  Obviously, it changes based on which base you’re taking, the number of outs, the score, and who’s coming up to bat afterwards.  

[Aristotelian]

Interesting. Is that stat adjusted for position? Eye test says he must be one of the fastest catchers in the league even if his speed isn't overall elite. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Interesting. Is that stat adjusted for position? Eye test says he must be one of the fastest catchers in the league even if his speed isn't overall elite. 

Statcast has that data.

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

He's on base a lot more than most of his teammates.

Speaking of that, I was noticing that Cedric Mullins has had 253 opportunities to steal a base, while Mateo has only had 118.   Imagine what Mateo’s SB total would look like if he actually got on base at a decent clip!

A stolen bases opportunity is any plate appearance where a runner is on first or second base and the base ahead of him is open.   So Mullins, as our usual leadoff hitter, has the advantage of (1) more PA and opportunities to get on base, (2) more situations where, when he’s on base, the base in front of him is open, and (3) more times when he’s on base and there’s nobody out, because he bats leadoff, so there will be more PA behind him while he’s on base compared to getting on with one or two outs.   So, Mullins’ advantage in SB opportunities isn’t just a function of being on base more often than Mateo, though certainly that’s a big part of it.  

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Speaking of that, I was noticing that Cedric Mullins has had 253 opportunities to steal a base, while Mateo has only had 118.   Imagine what Mateo’s SB total would look like if he actually got on base at a decent clip!

He's the new Vince Coleman.  Not really, but in 1986 Coleman hit .232 with a .581 OPS and stole 107 bases in 121 attempts.  He had 180 singles plus walks plus HBP and attempted 121 steals.  And he had 41 hits with men on base, and 22 with a guy on first.  Another 11 walks with guys on first or second. 

So he attempted a steal at least 121/147 times he had an opportunity, or >82% of the time. Unless they really change the pickoff rules that will never be approached again.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

He's the new Vince Coleman.  Not really, but in 1986 Coleman hit .232 with a .581 OPS and stole 107 bases in 121 attempts.  He had 180 singles plus walks plus HBP and attempted 121 steals.  And he had 41 hits with men on base, and 22 with a guy on first.  Another 11 walks with guys on first or second. 

So he attempted a steal at least 121/147 times he had an opportunity, or >82% of the time. Unless they really change the pickoff rules that will never be approached again.

BB-ref has him at 196 opportunities that year.  The way they do it, you can have more than one opportunity for each time you’re on base.  Still, 121/196 is a huge number, better than 60%.   He stole 3B 31 times that year.   One of his caught stealings was an attempted steal of home.

[Just Regular]

Batting mostly leadoff probably helps Mullins opportunity percentage skew higher than Mateo's.   20-25% of the time Mullins is guaranteed "no one will be in the way" if he gets to first.

And then the awful OBPs at the bottom of the O's lineup mean Mullins isn't often blocked even as the game goes along, something hopefully changing fast soon!

[Yossarian]

How many times does Mullins decide not to steal or is told not to steal with the heart of the order coming up? I would think that factors in.  They don't want to run into outs with the 2,3, 4 hitters coming up. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Yossarian said:

How many times does Mullins decide not to steal or is told not to steal with the heart of the order coming up? I would think that factors in.  They don't want to run into outs with the 2,3, 4 hitters coming up. 

Yes, I'd assume the analytics department has a lot of inputs on when it's smart to go and when it's not.