Mateo's Bottom of the Eighth (Infield in 2023 talk)

[DrungoHazewood]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Yes. Height matters simply because it lets the 1B reach more baseballs. You'd generally prefer a 6'3" guy as long as he's not a stiff.

I've mentioned this before, but I still have no real evidence that a tall first baseman is better than a short one with more range.  How many throws does Ryan Mountcastle catch in a given year that would get by Steve Pearce?

[LookinUp]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I've mentioned this before, but I still have no real evidence that a tall first baseman is better than a short one with more range.  How many throws does Ryan Mountcastle catch in a given year that would get by Steve Pearce?

I have no idea what the data says, particularly in the majors, but in younger leagues the difference is substantial. 

The longer person can not only stay on the bag for balls left, right and high, but he can also theoretically stretch farther and require fewer scoops. 

Like I said, I have no idea what the data says, but I don't think it's a coincidence that many 1Bs are taller.

[Hallas]

On 9/21/2022 at 9:26 AM, Sports Guy said:

Urias is top 5 amongst third baseman in OAA.  Mateo is 7th.  Both have an OAA of 8.

So, why is it that we need to replace Urias but we keep Mateo?  I trust Urias more long term.  He has shown to be a better hitter throughout his pro career and isn’t as much of a free swinger.

Well, there's positional value, and the fact that Henderson probably isn't replacing Mateo's defense, but has a decent chance of replacing Urias' defense.  The big question mark is whether Urias is still a plus defender at 2B.  Probably?  But the error bars here are probably kind of high.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I've mentioned this before, but I still have no real evidence that a tall first baseman is better than a short one with more range.  How many throws does Ryan Mountcastle catch in a given year that would get by Steve Pearce?

All things being equal the taller guy is better but if you add in the caveat that shorter guy has "more range" then sure, that's a no brainer for me.    It's hard to even remember one throw that Mountcastle had to jump for his year at 1B.   Almost never happens.   Sure, it's helps on stretches as well but that's not really Mountcastle's thing either.

[Pickles]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I will be interested to see, because shortstops are going to be positioned in a way that we are nearly 100% certain will result in fewer defensive chances. Mateo now plays almost where a standard 2B would stand against LHH, and most of his advantage is against LHH.  Next year he'll be forced to play 10, 15, 20 feet or more towards third. So will every other SS, but still.

So will every other SS.  That's the point.  Mateo has elite range.  He's going to get to a lot more balls than the other guys because they're all going to be restricted.  If all the statistics show they should be 15 feet to the right, and they're all going to line up at the same spot, the guy with the most range is going to be able to cover more of those 15+ feet and make more plays.  If they can all position themselves optimally, the guy's range has value, but not nearly as much.

This is my prediction.  I can't prove it, but I think this will be shown to be true.

Edit: Here's the video.

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Pickles

[orioles22]

On 9/21/2022 at 12:22 PM, Tony-OH said:

Mateo is quite the dilemma, but in a good way. His defense is most of his value but when you consider he's playing a GG level SS, that's significant value to any team. His ability to be a disrupter on the base paths and occasional gap pop gives him some additional value despite obvious short comings with getting on base regularly. 

I think Mateo needs another year to cement his value and I think that's what the Orioles will do next year. He will play SS, Henderson will go to 3rd. 2nd base should be a battle between Urias, Westburg and Ortiz with Westburg being the most likely candidate to win the job. Urias could move back to utility and Ortiz gets extra AAA at bats to prove he wasn't just on a heater in the second half of the year.

 

Well said, except I think his defense should make it a fairly easy decision at such a crucial position. It feels a little like we're talking about trading Belanger in 1968. I know the game is different now, but that kind of defense isn't as easily replaced as some seem to believe.

[Pickles]

So as I typed the last response, Mateo made another beautiful play in the top of the 7th against the Astros.  And again, Palmer said it's basically impossible to play shortstop better than Mateo is currently, and again made reference to Aparicio, Belanger, and Ripken.

Oh, and for anybody wondering why having a tall/long first basemen matters, go look at the stretch Mountcastle made on the play and tell me if a 5'10" guy makes that play.

[RZNJ]

48 minutes ago, Pickles said:

So as I typed the last response, Mateo made another beautiful play in the top of the 7th against the Astros.  And again, Palmer said it's basically impossible to play shortstop better than Mateo is currently, and again made reference to Aparicio, Belanger, and Ripken.

Oh, and for anybody wondering why having a tall/long first basemen matters, go look at the stretch Mountcastle made on the play and tell me if a 5'10" guy makes that play.

A 5'10 1B doesn't make that play but I'd still take a slick fielding 5'10 guy if we had one.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

So as I typed the last response, Mateo made another beautiful play in the top of the 7th against the Astros.  And again, Palmer said it's basically impossible to play shortstop better than Mateo is currently, and again made reference to Aparicio, Belanger, and Ripken.

Oh, and for anybody wondering why having a tall/long first basemen matters, go look at the stretch Mountcastle made on the play and tell me if a 5'10" guy makes that play.

Palmer is great but he likes to embellish the accomplishments of Os players at times.

Mateo is playing high level defense but there are 6 or 7 SS this season with a better OAA.

[emmett16]

Mateo just keeps doing it.  He was high in my list of possible trade pieces, but the game changing D is really appealing to hold on to.  If he hit a tick better it’s incredibly tempting to stick Gunnar at 3b, Ortiz/Westburg at 2b and  Urias as utility IF.  That’s an elite Infield defense.  If Mateo ratchets up the offense a notch or two, that’s an Elite IF that can pick it and that has a lot of pop.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, orioles22 said:

Well said, except I think his defense should make it a fairly easy decision at such a crucial position. It feels a little like we're talking about trading Belanger in 1968. I know the game is different now, but that kind of defense isn't as easily replaced as some seem to believe.

Let’s say Mateo is Belanger and Henderson is Ripken.  Which one would you play?   Henderson, obviously.   Of course the defense would be downgraded, but the offensive upgrade would make up for it easily.  

But that’s not really the question.  Henderson’s going to play either SS or 3B.   Mateo is either going to play SS or be traded, IMO.   
 

[Sydnor]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Let’s say Mateo is Belanger and Henderson is Ripken.  Which one would you play?   Henderson, obviously.   Of course the defense would be downgraded, but the offensive upgrade would make up for it easily.  

But that’s not really the question.  Henderson’s going to play either SS or 3B.   Mateo is either going to play SS or be traded, IMO.   
 

Apologies if this has been posted, but a few weeks ago, Rosenthal wrote an article where he discussed the Orioles plan for the off-season. He wrote that “at the moment” the Orioles plan was to have Mateo start at SS:

The market is deep in shortstops, and likely will include one Elias drafted for the Astros, Carlos Correa. But at the moment, the Orioles expect Jorge Mateo, a top defender, to return as their primary player at the position. At second base, the top free-agent choice would appear to be Adam Frazier, who has been a disappointment with the Mariners. So, perhaps the answer is a trade, or to spend in other areas while awaiting the arrival of Jordan Westburg, the 30th overall pick in the 2020 draft.

Obviously plans “at the moment” can change.

He also suggested that the Orioles are aware of their need for a “professional hitter,” particularly if they trade Santander:

The Orioles’ wish list includes a top-of-the-rotation starter, a quality backup for Rutschman and an infielder, probably at second base if Henderson takes over third. Their lineup could use another professional hitter, a veteran similar to the player right fielder Anthony Santanderhas become. That need will become even more acute if the Orioles trade Santander, who is earning $3.15 million with two years of arbitration remaining.

https://theathletic.com/3575558/2022/09/08/orioles-rutschman-twins-correa-free-agency/?source=user_shared_article

 

[terpoh]

21 hours ago, Pickles said:

I'm defining elite as a global top 20 prospect.  There was just a study cited in a thread around here recently that found elite prospects, as such defined, busted about half the time, and that "non-elite" prospects, guys ranked 20-100, which as you point out is still a good prospect, busted 70% of the time.

I know we all like a lot of our prospects.  But the fact is, the majority of them aren't going to work out.  It's why I'm in no hurry to jettison young cheap and productive major leaguers, players who have led to us winning this year, and just handing jobs to prospects because the prospects are "better."

Show me.

That makes sense. I doubt either of those guys ever make it to top 20 status. Westburg should certainly move up from where hes at in the post season and potentially 2023 pre season rankings but I would see him topping out around maybe 50 in some of the lists. 

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, Pickles said:

Oh, and for anybody wondering why having a tall/long first basemen matters, go look at the stretch Mountcastle made on the play and tell me if a 5'10" guy makes that play.

No doubt that's easier for a taller first baseman.  But I would love to have data on how often that happens and how often a smaller, quicker guy gets to a ball 30' off the bag that the taller, slower guy doesn't.

We know that third baseman can have a difference of 100 or more chances a year between them. Brooks once fielded 560 balls in a season, Mark Reynolds in the mid 300s. First basemen are basically third basemen without the throwing requirement and perhaps fewer chances because there are fewer LHH.  I think there's a good chance range is more important than reach.

[terpoh]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

No doubt that's easier for a taller first baseman.  But I would love to have data on how often that happens and how often a smaller, quicker guy gets to a ball 30' off the bag that the taller, slower guy doesn't.

We know that third baseman can have a difference of 100 or more chances a year between them. Brooks once fielded 560 balls in a season, Mark Reynolds in the mid 300s. First basemen are basically third basemen without the throwing requirement and perhaps fewer chances because there are fewer LHH.  I think there's a good chance range is more important than reach.

Thats a crazy stat wow. How much of that do you believe is attributed to differences in pitching/style of play/era vs Brooks just getting to 200 more baseballs?