Correa opts out…should the Os pursue him?

[oriole]

56 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Nobody really trades a #1 overall draft pick a few months after he's signed.  In fact, I'm pretty sure there's a rule you can't trade him for at least a year.

I wasn’t really suggesting it. It was a nod to the pointlessness of a Correa signing. We’ve got solid options in the now, near future, and far future. What’s needed now is starting pitching depth and maybe some upgrades at other positions that don’t have a lot of organizational depth like 1B/DH. My suggestion of trading Holliday was a subtle highlight of the ridiculousness of the notion. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I judge being a good teammate by what other players, the coaches, and the manager say about the player.   Most of the time that isn't public knowledge.   

Agreed.   You can observe interactions in the dugout sometimes and get impressions.  My assumption is that most players are good teammates.   I’d say there are four categories: leaders, good guys, guys who are okay but stick to themselves, and jerks.   I think the GMs generally know who’s in which category.   Fans don’t necessarily know. 

[jamalshw]

3 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

This is probably not the best idea for a guy whose skill set relies heavily on speed and who is going to turn 30 before the AS break in year one of eight. I'd much rather sign Correa to that deal and I have no interest in signing Correa.

Burnes is a legitimate ace who won't reach free agency until the 2024-2025 offseason so if Milwaukee decides to deal him, I would imagine they would be looking for young, elite talent with tons of team control remaining. I don't think guys like Santander, Mateo, Urias, and Hays would interest them all that much since they already have pretty comparable guys on their roster- Taylor, Renfroe, Adames, Luis Urias, etc. I previously used the SEA/CIN trade involving Luis Castillo in another thread to illustrate what a potential deal for Corbin Burnes might look like for the Orioles and will do so again here because all of the trade proposals I keep seeing for Burnes (not just yours) are drastic underestimations, IMO.

The Reds got 2 of the Mariners' top 5 prospects, Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo, both of whom are also top 50ish overall prospects, plus 2 more solid prospects, for 1.5 years of a lesser pitcher (Castillo 2020-2022: 3.49 ERA/130 ERA+, Burnes 2020-2022: 2.62 ERA/156 ERA+), so the Brewers would be well within their rights to seek a similar package for 2 full years of Burnes. The closest comps to Marte and Arroyo in the Orioles system (based on their placement on prospect lists) would be Holliday and Cowser, so that is probably a reasonably accurate starting point for a hypothetical Burnes trade, IMO.

A package comprised of useful but non-elite MLB guys like Santander, Mateo, Urias, and Hays and/or second and third tier prospects like Hall, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Rom, and Haskin simply isn't going to get it done because there will absolutely be other teams out there willing to pony up legitimately elite talent for a bonafide ace with multiple years of control remaining. 

This is where we disagree. 

I don't consider DL Hall a "second or third tier prospect". He's ranked No.30 in Fangraph's prospect list and similarly in others. Milwuakee needs offense and I do think someone like Santander would have some appeal. I could see the argument to need to add a bit more and include Cowser. 

Santander gives you a solid offensive piece which provides some pop that they dearly need. Cowser and Hall give you two top-50 prospects and adding in Westburg or Ortiz gives you another fringe top-100 prospect (depending on list). If they require Henderson or Rodriguez to do the deal, I move one and explore a lesser option, but I do think the aforementioned package would at least get you close IF the Brewers are willing to deal him. I understand your Castillo comp, but it's also a mid-season versus offseason trade.

I grant you such a trade isn't likely to happen, but I don't view it as outlandish.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Nobody really trades a #1 overall draft pick a few months after he's signed.  In fact, I'm pretty sure there's a rule you can't trade him for at least a year.

I think they got rid of that rule a few years ago.  Now you can trade them after the season in which they were drafted.  Zach Peek and Kyle Brnovich, for example, were drafted by the Angels in 2019 and traded to the Orioles that December in the Bundy deal.

Edited October 14, 2022 by Frobby

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think they got rid of that rule a few years ago.  Now you can trade them after the season in which they were drafted.  Zach Peek and Kyle Brnovich, for example, were drafted by the Angels in 2019 and traded to the Orioles that December in the Bundy deal.

[Just Regular]

11 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Right, the chart needs age and likelihood of getting anywhere close to 162 games.

Fair critique, though Correa is nearly 3-for-3 logging full seasons these last three years after starting his career 2-for-5.  The two week absence this year was after a couple hand HBP's, a bit more honorable than whatever that broken rib was back in the day.

If he had the ~10 extra B-Ref wins he might have had in the ~1.5 years he lost to injury, he'd be at 50 wins through Age 27 instead of 40.     Fangraphs has him down closer to 30 wins, only ~90th all-time.

Elias makes it easy to go Glass Half Full on his guys.    We'll see how it plays out, but my feeling is he was just waiting for Trea Turner's contract to expire.    Curious to see how the ultimate sifter Andrew Friedman comes at the SS market this year.     Jorge Mateo-Joey Ortiz collateral damage ain't nuthin' if any chance for another plausible MVP candidate on the team.

[DrungoHazewood]

On 10/14/2022 at 12:34 PM, Frobby said:

What I want for the Orioles is players who... think Baltimore is the greatest city in the universe.   

I like Baltimore, it has a lot of positives despite some really bad press. But if there's a free agent who wants to come to the Orioles because they think it's the greatest city in the universe they'd better be doing some serious pre-contract evaluations of the guy to make sure he's not non compos mentis.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

On 10/14/2022 at 2:49 PM, jamalshw said:

This is where we disagree. 

I don't consider DL Hall a "second or third tier prospect". He's ranked No.30 in Fangraph's prospect list and similarly in others. Milwuakee needs offense and I do think someone like Santander would have some appeal. I could see the argument to need to add a bit more and include Cowser. 

Santander gives you a solid offensive piece which provides some pop that they dearly need. Cowser and Hall give you two top-50 prospects and adding in Westburg or Ortiz gives you another fringe top-100 prospect (depending on list). If they require Henderson or Rodriguez to do the deal, I move one and explore a lesser option, but I do think the aforementioned package would at least get you close IF the Brewers are willing to deal him. I understand your Castillo comp, but it's also a mid-season versus offseason trade.

I grant you such a trade isn't likely to happen, but I don't view it as outlandish.  

I think some of the shine is off of Hall after his uninspiring 2022 season. The stuff is still tantalizing but the results remain mediocre due to his lack of control and there hasn't been much sign of progress, which has caused the "future reliever" murmurs to grow even louder than they already were. Fangraphs may still be bullish on him but he has slipped a bit elsewhere, like MLB Pipeline, which has him at #87 in their updated rankings. If I was a GM with a bonafide ace with multiple years of control to deal, I would definitely be aiming much higher than a 24 year old who was drafted 6 years ago and just posted a 4.70 ERA with 49 walks in 76 innings at AAA as the headlining prospect of my return.

As for the Brewers wanting Santander, I guess it's possible, but the point of dealing Burnes or Woodruff would largely be to reduce their payroll, which is currently saddled with an absolutely massive arbitration class, while also cashing in big on a valuable asset that they probably can't afford to retain long-term. Both guys are Arb2 and probably going to be due ~$11 million for next year, while Santander is projected for over $7 million in arbitration, so that would only leave their net savings at around $4 million or less. Maybe ~$4 million in additional payroll space + Santander's bat + a reduced prospect haul is acceptable to them, but maybe it isn't. I really don't know.

[Just Regular]

18 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

As for the Brewers wanting Santander, I guess it's possible, but the point of dealing Burnes or Woodruff would largely be to reduce their payroll, which is currently saddled with an absolutely massive arbitration class, while also cashing in big on a valuable asset that they probably can't afford to retain long-term.

Brewers Fanfest should be a hoot this year if Stearns really does go through with one of those after the Hader move (in many fans estimation, at least) dented their '22 playoff chances.

Noticed last night TBS looks like they've hired Correa as a full-time pre/post game analyst for the ALCS.    He seems to be as fluent in the modern state of play as you might guess someone who has been training in the Luhnow-Stearns-Elias mold more than a decade would be.     

[DrinkinWithFermi]

8 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Brewers Fanfest should be a hoot this year if Stearns really does go through with one of those after the Hader move (in many fans estimation, at least) dented their '22 playoff chances.

Noticed last night TBS looks like they've hired Correa as a full-time pre/post game analyst for the ALCS.    He seems to be as fluent in the modern state of play as you might guess someone who has been training in the Luhnow-Stearns-Elias mold more than a decade would be.     

I'm sure they'd much rather unload the 6 years, $156 million owed to Yelich through age 36 than one of the 1 year, $11ish million contracts owed to each of Burnes and Woodruff next year, but people in Hell want ice water, so...

That is interesting about Correa though, I did not know that. I don't go out of my way to watch TBS's playoffs coverage because I can't stand listening to Ron Darling. He's awful lol.

[LookinUp]

This makes me want Correa more, and Mountcastle/Hays less.

 

 

[NCRaven]

Except that Correa isn't playing 1B or LF.

[Just Regular]

AAA media fun....here's Luhnow weeks before Correa's MLB debut.     Hopefully Jackson Holliday gets Elias to about here circa Memorial Day 2024.     Jordan Lyles even gets a mention at the end.

 

[Roll Tide]

DISCLOSURE ******* Take this with a huge grain of salt******

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[Roll Tide]

Same as above … Perhaps Boras wasn’t puffing