Hypothetical Henderson contract extension

[sevastras]

Franco got 12/$223mm at age 20 with less than a year service time. Would you offer that for Gunnar? Would he except that?  
Another would be Tatis 14/$340mm  at age 22. 
 

Gunnar is 21 and the top prospect in baseball but not as highly touted through the minors as the other two who were “phenoms”. 
 

My answer is I would be just fine with either contract. I don’t know what he would accept but I do believe he will prove to be every bit as good as Machado with less fan fare/hype coming into his rookie season next year. (Nationally) I had people come up to me in Home Depot in the Pacific Northwest talking to me about Mountcastle while he was in the minors for their dynasty leagues(I wear an Os hat). No one has said anything to me about Gunnar. 

[LookinUp]

The Tatis deal is bad. Something closer to Franco makes sense though.

[Frobby]

As good as Henderson looks, he’s not as highly regarded as Franco was when he signed his deal.  Franco received an 80 grade as a prospect by Fangraphs, even a higher grade than Rutschman or Vlad Jr. received.  He also put up 3.5 rWAR in 70 games as a 20-year old in the majors.   Therefore, I’d expect Henderson to be worth less than Franco.   

At the same time, Boras represents Henderson and he’s probably not signing a long term deal in any event.  
 

[sevastras]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The Tatis deal is bad. Something closer to Franco makes sense though.

Tatis is bad from self inflicted reasons. I would say that I fear less about Gunnar’s character than Tatis. Drugs wise, you never know who or why but I don’t see Gunnar doing stupid stuff like dirt bike accidents or blowing up like a pre Madonna in the dugout. Tatis still has time and ability to make his contract a deal. It isn’t like he is in his 30s and fell off a cliff physically. 

[sevastras]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As good as Henderson looks, he’s not as highly regarded as Franco was when he signed his deal.  Franco received an 80 grade as a prospect by Fangraphs, even a higher grade than Rutschman or Vlad Jr. received.  He also put up 3.5 rWAR in 70 games as a 20-year old in the majors.   Therefore, I’d expect Henderson to be worth less than Franco.   

At the same time, Boras represents Henderson and he’s probably not signing a long term deal in any event.  
 

I did address the not as highly regarded part in my initial post. Boras does push for free agency, but you are also talking about 6 years from now and a whole lot of what ifs. What if there aren’t billion dollar television deals? What if Canada invaded the US and makes the National past time curling?  

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

As good as Henderson looks, he’s not as highly regarded as Franco was when he signed his deal.  Franco received an 80 grade as a prospect by Fangraphs, even a higher grade than Rutschman or Vlad Jr. received.  He also put up 3.5 rWAR in 70 games as a 20-year old in the majors.   Therefore, I’d expect Henderson to be worth less than Franco.   

At the same time, Boras represents Henderson and he’s probably not signing a long term deal in any event.  
 

I think a 7-8 year deal is possible.  He’s not signing for much longer than that unless the money is astronomical.  But he can still be a FA before 30 and have a lot of security up until that point.

[foxfield]

I do not know.  It seems there is a dynamic with these kids where they really like each other.  If the Orioles were to approach them with the idea of locking up a core group of kids, maybe Henderson likes that.  Boras says no...but I think I would try.

[tntoriole]

9 hours ago, sevastras said:

I did address the not as highly regarded part in my initial post. Boras does push for free agency, but you are also talking about 6 years from now and a whole lot of what ifs. What if there aren’t billion dollar television deals? What if Canada invaded the US and makes the National past time curling?  

Canada is too smart for wanting  to try to govern this bunch down here.  
Boras is 70 something.. he may retire before it gets there hopefully lol 

[jabba72]

Yeah I wouldnt want to do the Tatis one. Franco looks good however. Once Gunnar has a 6+ WAR season he could be hard to negotiate with.

[Sports Guy]

He has 6 years of control left. 
 

The first 3 years, he will make roughly 2.25M.

The record for first year arb is 11.5M for Bellinger.  He broke Bryant’s record of 10.85.  Bellinger won MVP the year before he was arb eligible for the first time.

It looks like Betts has the record for final year at 27M.

Soto got 17M in his second year (he was super 2) in an agreed upon deal.

Ohtani just got 30M or else he probably breaks the Betts record.

All of this is a long winded way of saying the best case for Henderson in his arb years is probably something in the area of 60-65M, which would put his FA years starting at 35ishM a year.

If you signed him for 2 extra FA years, you are looking at 8 year deal for somewhere in the 130-140M range.

But that’s absolutely best case.  More likely, you give him 40-45M in the arb years, perhaps 3-4 million in the pre arb years and then 28-35M in the first 2 FA years.  So basically 6/45-50 and then an additional 2/60ish.

So, basically what Acuna got..8/100..maybe a little more.

Something along those lines.

[RZNJ]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think a 7-8 year deal is possible.  He’s not signing for much longer than that unless the money is astronomical.  But he can still be a FA before 30 and have a lot of security up until that point.

Is it worth locking a player up for 7 years when you have 6 full years of service time left?    The team assumes all of the risk to gain one year of control.   If Henderson has a career altering injury or just starts to suck in year 3 of the contract, you've got a bad contract.   I'm sure there's a point where the long contract makes sense but I don't think 7 is the number.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Is it worth locking a player up for 7 years when you have 6 full years of service time left?    The team assumes all of the risk to gain one year of control.   If Henderson has a career altering injury or just starts to suck in year 3 of the contract, you've got a bad contract.   I'm sure there's a point where the long contract makes sense but I don't think 7 is the number.

Well this is where the discussion really starts imo.

I would even go further.  Is it worth locking him up for 8 years?  All you get is 2 FA years out of it.  You are committing 100M to a guy just to guarantee you get him for 2 years longer than what is guaranteed to you.

This is why these deals are worth it only to a certain extent.  
 

There is a sentiment amongst the fan base that you have to sign Gunnar and Adley.   I think what is always forgotten in these discussions (maybe not on this site but by fans in general) is that you have the player cheap for 6 years already. They don’t start to get difference making money until their 5th season and even that is relative chump change.  So, why do it?

I would give him the 8 year deal with the hopes that you get him cheaper in years 4-8.  That’s the only way I’m doing it. Now, we of course won’t know if it’s cheaper because you Can’t see in the future but it’s a calculated risk that I would take.

I also have no issue with them waiting on it.  
 

I do think this is something that the fan base blows completely out of proportion.  Even the media is fawning all over the Braves but the Braves would have this core for 6 or so years anyway. It’s just an extra year or 2 that you gain.  It’s not that much.

[sportsfan8703]

Would ownership be willing to commit almost a half billion to Gunnar and Adley?  I just don’t think so in their current situation. 

[Aristotelian]

Tatis had I believe 1.5 seasons of elite production established when he signed his extension. Franco would be better comp although I think his minors resume is more consistent. Gunnar achieved #1 status but really shot up the rankings after an .826 OPS at lower levels in '21. 

[sevastras]

I would say 10 years would be my starting point for year wise.