Hypothetical Henderson contract extension

[OriolesMagic83]

On 10/15/2022 at 11:11 AM, Sports Guy said:

Well this is where the discussion really starts imo.

I would even go further.  Is it worth locking him up for 8 years?  All you get is 2 FA years out of it.  You are committing 100M to a guy just to guarantee you get him for 2 years longer than what is guaranteed to you.

This is why these deals are worth it only to a certain extent.  
 

There is a sentiment amongst the fan base that you have to sign Gunnar and Adley.   I think what is always forgotten in these discussions (maybe not on this site but by fans in general) is that you have the player cheap for 6 years already. They don’t start to get difference making money until their 5th season and even that is relative chump change.  So, why do it?

I would give him the 8 year deal with the hopes that you get him cheaper in years 4-8.  That’s the only way I’m doing it. Now, we of course won’t know if it’s cheaper because you Can’t see in the future but it’s a calculated risk that I would take.

I also have no issue with them waiting on it.  
 

I do think this is something that the fan base blows completely out of proportion.  Even the media is fawning all over the Braves but the Braves would have this core for 6 or so years anyway. It’s just an extra year or 2 that you gain.  It’s not that much.

I would much rather sign a player to an extension that includes his peak than sign free agents from other teams that have probably already played a large part of their peak or even played all their peak years.  Long term free agents are very risky and much more expensive.  This is were the O's should spend their money, not free agents, except a starter or two.

[Sports Guy]

6 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would much rather sign a player to an extension that includes his peak than sign free agents from other teams that have probably already played a large part of their peak or even played all their peak years.  Long term free agents are very risky and much more expensive.  This is were the O's should spend their money, not free agents, except a starter or two.

People keep saying this but it’s just not an accurate statement.  The Orioles spending money on Henderson and Adley has zero to do with spending other money.

If they signed these guys to long term deals tomorrow, the first several years wouldn’t cost much at all.  It isn’t until you get into the arb years where you see the contracts rise.

The Orioles can easily spend big money over the next few years and give these guys the deals they want.  
 

And they will have Henderson through most of his prime years whether they sign him or not.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

People keep saying this but it’s just not an accurate statement.  The Orioles spending money on Henderson and Adley has zero to do with spending other money.

If they signed these guys to long term deals tomorrow, the first several years wouldn’t cost much at all.  It isn’t until you get into the arb years where you see the contracts rise.

The Orioles can easily spend big money over the next few years and give these guys the deals they want.  
 

And they will have Henderson through most of his prime years whether they sign him or not.

In a case like Henderson, who only turned 21 in June, he’s likely to have more prime years in his FA years than most players.  But we don’t really know what his prime looks like yet.   He doesn’t have enough of a big league track record to have much idea whether he’ll top out as a 4ish WAR player or a 7 WAR player in his prime.  

[Moose Milligan]

On 10/14/2022 at 11:43 PM, Frobby said:

 

At the same time, Boras represents Henderson and he’s probably not signing a long term deal in any event.  
 

I didn't realize Henderson was represented by Boras.  

Let's see how far the "yes sir, yes ma'am, aw shucks" thing goes for him amongst Orioles fans while Boras is doing his bidding for him.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In a case like Henderson, who only turned 21 in June, he’s likely to have more prime years in his FA years than most players.  But we don’t really know what his prime looks like yet.   He doesn’t have enough of a big league track record to have much idea whether he’ll top out as a 4ish WAR player or a 7 WAR player in his prime.  

That’s why I said MOST of us prime years will be here whether we extend him or not.

[LookinUp]

This is a great discussion. If I’m the O’s, I want him locked up long term for many reasons. I do understand how these deals turn into 13-year deals instead of 7-8 year deals. This won’t be easy to do.