A look back at the 2021-22 Free Agent Starters

[Frobby]

Last winter, there were 59 FA pitchers classified as starters on MLB.com.  12 of them signed multi-year deals; 24 signed one-year deals; 23 either signed minor league deals, went overseas, or didn’t play.

The 12 pitchers who signed multi-year deals produced 20.5 rWAR at a cost of about $220 mm for 2022.   Guys who did well or at least respectably included Rodon (5.4 rWAR), Scherzer (5.3), Gausman (3.0), Cobb (2.6), Stroman (2.5), Ray (2.1) and Jon Gray (1.4).  Of the 12, only three (Ray, Rodon and Gausman) threw enough innings to qualify.  Pitchers who were more or less disasters were Wood (0.3 rWAR), Rodriguez (0.1), Matz (-0.4), DeSclafini (-0.8) and Kikuchi (-1.0).  

The 24 who signed one-year deals produced 40.7 rWAR at a cost of $177 mm.  Pitchers who did well or respectably included Verlander (5.9 rWAR), Martin Perez (5.0), Tyler Anderson (4.3), Kershaw (3.8), Quintana (3.5), Cueto (3.5), Wacha (3.3), Greinke (2.5), Smyly (1.9), Syndergaard (1.8), Junis (1.7) and Lyles (1.0).  The pitchers who threw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title were Verlander, Anderson, Perez, Quintana, Kluber and Lyles; Cueto just missed at 158 IP.  The guys who were pretty much disasters were Paxton (DNP for $10 mm), Bundy (-0.3), Richards (-0.4), and Pineda (-0.6).  The others were very mediocre and/or hurt a good bit, but more or less earned their relatively low salaries.   

None of the MiL deals yielded any useful results for starting pitchers, though Matt Moore had a very nice year (2.4 rWAR) as a reliever and Wily Peralta (0.7) also was pretty good in that role.  

In the category of “who was better than Jordan Lyles and cost $11 mm or less,” you have Perez (5.0 rWAR for only $4 mm), Anderson (4.3/$8 mm), Quintana (3.5/$2 mm), Smyly (1.9/$4.25 mm), Junis (1.7/$1.75 mm), Wacha (3.3/$7 mm) and Cueto (3.5/$4.5 mm).   Needless to say, all of those pitchers are available again this winter.   Anyone on that list you’d prefer to sign over Lyles?  I have a feeling that at least a couple of them won’t be available for 1/$11 mm or under this time around.  


 

[Aristotelian]

Problem is, any of the 1 year guys who outperformed Lyles for cheaper last year are now going to be quite a bit more. I would think Perez and Anderson should get at least Declafini's 3/$36M. Looking at who is available now, I can't say there's anyone I like better than Lyles who will also be cheaper than 1/$10M

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Problem is, any of the 1 year guys who outperformed Lyles for cheaper last year are now going to be quite a bit more. I would think Perez and Anderson should get at least Declafini's 3/$36M. Looking at who is available now, I can't say there's anyone I like better than Lyles who will also be cheaper than 1/$10M

I would think that the O's will go more than 10m or 11m per year for the right starter.

[Aristotelian]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I would think that the O's will go more than 10m or 11m per year for the right starter.

I am suggesting they should probably do both. A certain poster has argued against Lyles on the grounds that it is easy to find someone as good as Lyles for cheaper.

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I am suggesting they should probably do both.

I don’t think settling for a Lyles type by himself is an option. We need at least one pitcher who is highly likely to be significantly better than Lyles.   Beyond that one, you can argue about whether we need yet another starter and how high to aim in the market.

I think the OP shows that (1) it’s possible to spend a good bit on a multi-year contract and still come up with a turkey, and (2) it’s possible to spend a modest amount on a one-year deal and come out way ahead.   I was surprised to see the WAR/$ ratio skewed so far in favor of the one-year deals.  I’m not sure if I’d find the same thing if I did the same analysis for several seasons, or whether last offseason/the 2022 season was a one-off in that regard.  

[Aristotelian]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think settling for a Lyles type by himself is an option. We need at least one pitcher who is highly likely to be significantly better than Lyles.   Beyond that one, you can argue about whether we need yet another starter and how high to aim in the market.

I think the OP shows that (1) it’s possible to spend a good bit on a multi-year contract and still come up with a turkey, and (2) it’s possible to spend a modest amount on a one-year deal and come out way ahead.   I was surprised to see the WAR/$ ratio skewed so far in favor of the one-year deals.  I’m not sure if I’d find the same thing if I did the same analysis for several seasons, or whether last offseason/the 2022 season was a one-off in that regard.  

It's not surprising to me that there have been some good values and some busts in across the tiers. There is a lot of volatility and risk in baseball. I agree, if we retain Lyles my assumption is we would still be in the market for more. If we cut bait on Lyles, I hope that means the O's have positive info on Means' likelihood of coming back. One argument for letting Lyles go is that we should be able to find someone like.him at the trade deadline for cheap. 

[Jammer7]

This discussion led me to look at Lyles Fangraphs numbers. The one thing that struck me as interesting was that they valued his 2022 performance at $11.5 million. I am not well-versed on these kinds of numbers. Perhaps @Frobby or someone else can shed some light on the valuation by FanGraphs?

Edited October 30, 2022 by Jammer7

[now]

Similarly, isn't there some thumbnail calculation to show tiers by rotation order--whether by ERA+, salary, WAR or other measures? By gut reckoning I would peg Lyles as a dependable 4/5 and plan accordingly.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

This discussion led me to look at Lyles Fangraphs numbers. The one thing that struck me as interesting was that they valued his 2022 performance at $11.5 million. I am not well-versed on these kinds of numbers. Perhaps @Frobby or someone else can shed some light on the valuation by FanGraphs?

It’s just a dollar translation of fWAR.  Each year they calculate how many fWAR the FA class was worth the year before, and the total amount paid per year to that class, to derive a $/WAR ratio.  After many years of increase, it’s settled in at about $8 mm/WAR over the last 6-7 years or so.  So, 1.4 fWAR translates to about $11.5 mm.  

[foxfield]

This is excellent info Frobby. Thanks 

[Jammer7]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s just a dollar translation of fWAR.  Each year they calculate how many fWAR the FA class was worth the year before, and the total amount paid per year to that class, to derive a $/WAR ratio.  After many years of increase, it’s settled in at about $8 mm/WAR over the last 6-7 years or so.  So, 1.4 fWAR translates to about $11.5 mm.  

Thank you for the explanation. Interesting.

His option is for $11 million for 2023. That would seem reasonable, maybe a little high. Do we go with Lyles, knowing what we should get from him? Or go with another one year option that is more of an unknown? I can see going with him as a 4-5 starter. I would like to see Degrom or Verlander, while I worry Rodon is the kind of potential bust with injuries you wrote about. 

[wildcard]

I don't think its the dollar value that will drive who Elias has on the pitching staff next year.  Well, not the only thing.   I think Elias would like to have one of the top 3 rotations in the AL.   Last season he was 10th with the O's starters have a 4.35 ERA.

The Astros  starters were one at 2.95 ERA,  Tampa second at 3.45,  and the Yankees third at 3.51.   So the goal is to be as good as the Yankees were.

Kremer, Bradish, Voth, Grayson and Means all have a chance to help that happen if we consider Bradish 2nd half.   Lyles at  a 4.45 ERA without much of a chance of improving doesn't help achieve that goal.  That is why I think Elias brings in someone he thinks is better.

Wells at 4.25  and Watkins at 4.17 as starters are  guys that fill in in case of injury.  Hall has to prove he can pass one of the starters with what he does at as a starter at AAA before he joins the rotation.

I think Elias is building a 2023 playoff team and Lyles does not really fit.   JMO

Edited October 31, 2022 by wildcard

[Camden Yards]

Folks worry about Rodon’s injury history but give a pass to DeGrom who is a bigger injury risk. Rodon has started 55 games the past two years vs DeGrom’s 26 starts. I am going with Rodon. Probably can get Rodon and a good hitter (Maybe Rizzo) for the cost of DeGrom. Or get Rodon and Clevinger. 
What contracts will DeGrom, Rodon, Clevinger, and Rizzo get?

We want to win a World Series- Lyles is good for a rebuilding team. That was great for the past. Don’t waste money on 

 

Rodon, Kremer, GROD, Bradish, and a battle for the 5th spot. 

Wells, Voth, and Hall battle for a starting job but can be pushed to the pen. Would give us lots of depth if we add two SPs. Who knows what Kremer and Bradish will do next year. 
Bullpen- Bautista, Tate, Perez, Baker, Wells, Hall, Voth, Akin, Baumann, etc.

Add Rodon, Clevinger (or trade for SP), Rizzo, and backup catcher. That gives us a great shot to fight for the division.

 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Remember, Lyles only costs 10 million more. We are paying him 1 million regardless. Pick up his option. There is no competition for him and he's a serviceable starter. Then...go for a better one. I think people are worried that if we get Lyles, we don't get anyone else. They shouldn't be exclusive to each other.

[Camden Yards]

25 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Remember, Lyles only costs 10 million more. We are paying him 1 million regardless. Pick up his option. There is no competition for him and he's a serviceable starter. Then...go for a better one. I think people are worried that if we get Lyles, we don't get anyone else. They shouldn't be exclusive to each other.

The Orioles will not make a deep playoff run with a bunch of Lyles in the rotation. He is a mediocre pitcher at best. We have a bunch of those. Hopefully GROD turns into a TOR pitcher but it will take some time. Let’s use the 10 million toward a stud pitcher.