2022 #5 Prospect Coby Mayo - 3B

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

That's my big question about Mayo too.  Arm strength is there.  But how did everything else progress?

I don't think you can totally discount him play at 3B in the major leagues. He's not awful there, especially for a big guy he moves ok, but those feet still don't move great and while he can throw accurately and strong on the run, he's a step slow coming in and I don't that will improve. 

[Aglets]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Does he realistically project to 3B at this stage?

He started about 100 games across various levels in 2022.   Ending up at AA.   Out of those 100 starts only 2 of them were NOT at 3B or DH.   So if he isn't a 3B they aren't apparently in a hurry to try him anywhere else.

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't think you can totally discount him play at 3B in the major leagues. He's not awful there, especially for a big guy he moves ok, but those feet still don't move great and while he can throw accurately and strong on the run, he's a step slow coming in and I don't that will improve. 

His frame reminds me of a young Jim Thome.  And I don't see how that body type can move at 3B.  

[RZNJ]

Gunnar Henderson is the clue that fits a lot of pieces together for next year and beyond, IMO.   Where Henderson plays this year likely plays into the futures of Mayo, Ortiz, Norby, and Wstburg but Ortiz and Mayo more than the others.  If Gunnar plays 3rd, there’s no doubt there’s a position change or trade in Mayo’s future.  At the same time, if Henderson plays SS, which most seem to have discounted at this point, I think it’s a clue that they are still high on Mayo’s future at 3B.   I would love to know how Elias envisions the pieces fitting together over the next 2 years.

[btdart20]

4 minutes ago, Aglets said:

He started about 100 games across various levels in 2022.   Ending up at AA.   Out of those 100 starts only 2 of them were NOT at 3B or DH.   So if he isn't a 3B they aren't apparently in a hurry to try him anywhere else.

That kind of speaks to my concerns about not trying any of our hitting prospects at 1B...  Elias/crew seem to prioritize maximizing value by not creating any doubt on whether players will stick or not.  So we're left with Gunnar playing 2B and whatnot in a firedrill.

[MCO'sFan]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Mayo probably ends up at 1B if he stays in this organization, but he could be a key part of a deal as well.

Is there any sense of how he is viewed by other organizations? He is not a consensus Top 100 guy. Tony clearly like him but do other orgs see him that way or not. I wonder if the O's would be trading low right now.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

That kind of speaks to my concerns about not trying any of our hitting prospects at 1B...  Elias/crew seem to prioritize maximizing value by not creating any doubt on whether players will stick or not.  So we're left with Gunnar playing 2B and whatnot in a firedrill.

You lost me.  A lot of people, including Tony, have complained about the Orioles prospects playing too many positions instead of concentrating on just one.  Gunnar played 3rd and SS.  Mayo, pretty much, only 3B.   Are you saying he should be getting more reps at 1B?

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You lost me.  A lot of people, including Tony, have complained about the Orioles prospects playing too many positions instead of concentrating on just one.  Gunnar played 3rd and SS.  Mayo, pretty much, only 3B.   Are you saying he should be getting more reps at 1B?

It's a loosely held thought of mine...

I don't mind playing multiple positions for the type of player.  Guys like Gunnar, Westburg, Ortiz...  they are athletic and that flexibility is intentional and developmental.  Playing multiple positions adds value and team flexibility. 

I'm saying if they have concerns about a guy sticking at a position, then there's a case to be made for finding a new home.   We have zero 1B prospects and a ton of hitting depth at other positions (usually at different levels in the org).  And yet we don't give the guys with some fielding question marks (thinking Norby, Mayo) or positions of extreme depth (like a Westburg, Stowers, Kjerstad) any type of game reps at a position of need.  Then we tried to cram a Gunnar at 2B (a position of need at the MLB level) because we're trying to replace an empty bat in Baltimore (and yes I recognize that I said he's athletic and can play anywhere, but "Surprise, you're starting your MLB career at a position you've never played in your life" isn't the right way to do anything).  

It seems to be a maximizing value type of decision.  3B is more important/difficult defensively to play.  A power hitting 3B is more valuable than that same hitter at 1B.  Having a 3B split his time to play some 1B (especially if there are already industry concerns about him sticking at 3B) will underscore the concern and devalue the prospect by the position they play.  That's the concern from a player/org/market value perspective.  If a team isn't sure if Westburg can stick at SS, then playing him at 1B really hinders his trade value.  Maybe even having a non-1B playing 1B would add "errors not saved" to other prospects.  

But there has to come a time where the roster construction/projections have to consider "who fits where" and try to see if they can play those positions.  I'm not saying now is the time to see what Mayo has at 1B.  But I'd rather not see the fire drill of trying Gunnar at 2B happen when say Mountcastle goes down with a hammy.  And I'm not even saying Mayo needs to move like Mountcastle did back in the day.  He might be a legitimate 3B.  It just feels like 1B is a position that we've neglected on the altar of maximizing market value.

[emmett16]

I’ve got a feeling Mayo gets traded this off-season.  

[Frobby]

I do think Mayo moves off 3B eventually. I went to a game this year and saw him completely matador a ball in a way you never see from a really good defender.  I also heard an interview of Bowie’s radio announcer, Adam Pohl, in which Pohl said Mayo would probably be moved off 3B eventually.  Pohl isn’t a negative guy, so if he’s saying that, I tend to believe him.  The arm is great so maybe he ends up in RF, but his size may dictate 1B even though that’s a waste of his arm.  

[Sports Guy]

I’m perfectly fine with Mayo at 4 even if you told me today that he’s a first baseman.  

If he can be a high OPS, big power first baseman (and likely good defense), he can still be a 5+ WAR guy.

[owknows]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I’m perfectly fine with Mayo at 4 even if you told me today that he’s a first baseman.  

If he can be a high OPS, big power first baseman (and likely good defense), he can still be a 5+ WAR guy.

That's pretty much my take too.

 

[Brooks The Great]

I heard from a reliable source (and I had two different reliable sources tell me that Jackson Holliday was the #1 pick well before the pick was announced) that Mayo dealt with a nagging injury towards the middle of the season. Which makes sense, because he started out the season pretty hot, sat out for a few weeks, and then came back and wasn't the same.

Mayo didn't play any games from July 2nd through July 28th. He hit 14 of his 19 home runs before July 2nd. I personally think the injury affected him and accounted for some (or most) of the regression in his K's and OPS this season.

He's so young and has so much power, and he has a great swing. I'm super high on Mayo. I think how he starts out next season will tell us a lot. The possibility of an infield of Mayo, Westburg, Ortiz/Holliday, and Gunnar in a couple years with Mayo at 1B is mouth-watering.

Edited November 17, 2022 by Brooks The Great

[forphase1]

8 hours ago, bpilktree said:

His numbers were probably not as good as some people would have hoped but him being about 4 years younger then the league average is a huge contributing factor in him still being so high imo.  

That's a great point,  and one I probably wasn't giving enough credit.

[seak05]

6 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

That really plays into it pretty high. I'm not sure some people realize how impressive it is to be at the levels he was at at his age. In each level, his wRC+, which adjusts for leagues was over the league average while being well below the average age for the level.

He also has some of the best exit velocities in the system. He's a big boy who is going to fill out and I think you are going to see his power explode next year and the year after.

I honestly could have put him at #4.

I read some stuff recently that he really struggles with balls lower in the zone. Is that something you’ve seen? Or is it a case of a national person not really seeing him