2022 #5 Prospect Coby Mayo - 3B

[Jim'sKid26]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He probably would be coming into next year's draft as a top draft pick. He would be an easy 1st rounder with his skill set with comparisons to Kris Bryant and Troy Glaus.

Troy Glaus is an intriguing comp. 12 year career where he generated 34.3 fWar. He had 2- 40+ HR seasons, 3- 30+ HR seasons and 3 seasons where he hit > 20 HRs.

Best season was his age 23 season when he his 47 HRs and drove in 120 for the Angels in 2000. He hit .284/.404/.604. He was never known as a great 3B but held his own there early in his career. 

If Mayo does that, the O's look very smart. 

[LookinUp]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

The terms ceiling and floor always seem misleading to me.  Pretty much every player has a floor of not making the majors, or being a zero impact player, until they’re in the majors and they don’t.   Mark Reynolds is probably a higher than median outcome for Mayo, even though that might be seen as disappointing by some.  

If you measure by HRs, true. By WAR, maybe not.

According to this article, the average WAR of a 50 FV prospect is only 3.1. This is a bit dated though, and I didn't read it closely to know if they compute this for you/old, at certain levels, etc.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

[Frobby]

17 hours ago, LookinUp said:

If you measure by HRs, true. By WAR, maybe not.

According to this article, the average WAR of a 50 FV prospect is only 3.1. This is a bit dated though, and I didn't read it closely to know if they compute this for you/old, at certain levels, etc.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

I’m definitely not measuring just by homers.  I’m looking at overall value.  Mayo could turn out to be much better, but he also could turn out to be significantly worse.

[Frobby]

So @Tony-OH, are you going to paste the Mayo and Westburg profiles into the OPs eventually, since the links still aren’t up?  Or did they eat your content entirely?   I’m anxious to read about these two.  

[Tony-OH]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So @Tony-OH, are you going to paste the Mayo and Westburg profiles into the OPs eventually, since the links still aren’t up?  Or did they eat your content entirely?   I’m anxious to read about these two.  

I'm hoping to have access to them soon so I don't have to recreate the wheel. I'm still writing others (now offline to ensure this doesn't happen again) so I really rather not have to rewrite those two.

[Tony-OH]

Finally got access, profile is up!

[seak05]

On 11/16/2022 at 11:14 PM, Tony-OH said:

I didn't notice that, but unless something is pretty obvious or I see the same thing over and over, I may not notice that. 

This was from an article noting that Mayo is exceptionally good at hitting the high fastball. The opening part of the section notes that he is one of the bet hitters in the minors with high fastballs, and has many laudatory things to say https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/11/9/the-best-fastball-hitters-in-the-minors

However, Coby Mayo is not without his flaws. His lower half is somewhat stiff, and the flat attack angles still lead to some trouble connecting with pitches down in the zone. He has below-average wOBAcons and contact rates against fastballs down in the zone. He also is particularly poor against pitches with at well below-average vertical movement (14”). He has just a .338 xwOBAcon as he has proven incapable of pulling the ball in the air, when the pitch is moving against his bat path. 

 

These problems extend beyond just the low fastball. Mayo also has problems with doing damage on breaking balls, because he can not hit the pitches down in the zone. He posted just a 50.3% contact rate against breakers in the lower third, and a .252 xwOBAcon. Mayo capitalizes on hanging pitches, but as he climbs the ladder, breaking ball stuff, command, and usage is all going to uptick and this problem could be his undoing. To be fair to Mayo, he has below-average chase rates against breaking balls. The four-seam hitting carries the profile, and might make Mayo better suited for a somewhat situational role. He can start most games, but it’s probably best to sit him against pitchers who spam the breaking ball or have a very steep VAA on their fastball. 

[RZNJ]

The poor contact against pitches down in the zone is certainly a concern.  It sounds like he might need to make some pretty significant swing changes.   It is certainly something to keep an eye on next year when we watch him.   

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Finally got access, profile is up!

Thanks Tony, really good write-up!  I’m excited to see what Mayo will do in 2023.  I like the fact that the O’s have been aggressive with him.  I agree we never can expect a Gunnar-like jump from anyone, but we don’t need that level of jump anyway.  Think more along the lines of Westburg, who went from .752 in 30 games in 2021 to .817 this year and then .869 at Norfolk.  If Mayo did that at age 21, he’d be a top 20ish prospect at year-end.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, seak05 said:

This was from an article noting that Mayo is exceptionally good at hitting the high fastball. The opening part of the section notes that he is one of the bet hitters in the minors with high fastballs, and has many laudatory things to say https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/11/9/the-best-fastball-hitters-in-the-minors

However, Coby Mayo is not without his flaws. His lower half is somewhat stiff, and the flat attack angles still lead to some trouble connecting with pitches down in the zone. He has below-average wOBAcons and contact rates against fastballs down in the zone. He also is particularly poor against pitches with at well below-average vertical movement (14”). He has just a .338 xwOBAcon as he has proven incapable of pulling the ball in the air, when the pitch is moving against his bat path. 

 

These problems extend beyond just the low fastball. Mayo also has problems with doing damage on breaking balls, because he can not hit the pitches down in the zone. He posted just a 50.3% contact rate against breakers in the lower third, and a .252 xwOBAcon. Mayo capitalizes on hanging pitches, but as he climbs the ladder, breaking ball stuff, command, and usage is all going to uptick and this problem could be his undoing. To be fair to Mayo, he has below-average chase rates against breaking balls. The four-seam hitting carries the profile, and might make Mayo better suited for a somewhat situational role. He can start most games, but it’s probably best to sit him against pitchers who spam the breaking ball or have a very steep VAA on their fastball. 

Damn, I'd love to know where they get that information?

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, seak05 said:

This was from an article noting that Mayo is exceptionally good at hitting the high fastball. The opening part of the section notes that he is one of the bet hitters in the minors with high fastballs, and has many laudatory things to say https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/11/9/the-best-fastball-hitters-in-the-minors

However, Coby Mayo is not without his flaws. His lower half is somewhat stiff, and the flat attack angles still lead to some trouble connecting with pitches down in the zone. He has below-average wOBAcons and contact rates against fastballs down in the zone. He also is particularly poor against pitches with at well below-average vertical movement (14”). He has just a .338 xwOBAcon as he has proven incapable of pulling the ball in the air, when the pitch is moving against his bat path. 

 

These problems extend beyond just the low fastball. Mayo also has problems with doing damage on breaking balls, because he can not hit the pitches down in the zone. He posted just a 50.3% contact rate against breakers in the lower third, and a .252 xwOBAcon. Mayo capitalizes on hanging pitches, but as he climbs the ladder, breaking ball stuff, command, and usage is all going to uptick and this problem could be his undoing. To be fair to Mayo, he has below-average chase rates against breaking balls. The four-seam hitting carries the profile, and might make Mayo better suited for a somewhat situational role. He can start most games, but it’s probably best to sit him against pitchers who spam the breaking ball or have a very steep VAA on their fastball. 

Of course you forgot to show how good a high fastball hitter he is according to the article. 

"

COBY MAYO
Key Stats: 86.1% Contact, 68.2% ZSwing, 22.3% Chase, .451 xwOBAcon

Coby Mayo was the Orioles 4th round pick in the truncated 2020 draft. Just two and a half seasons later, Mayo is a consensus top 100 talent, and looks like he will be a core piece for the Orioles moving forwards. His success is in large part due to his outstanding ability to hit the high heat. 

Coby Mayo is good against all fastballs, but what makes him stand out from the pack is how good he is against the high fastball. Mayo has a 91.8% contact rate against fastballs in the top third of the strike zone. That is in the 99th percentile of all players at any level. Mayo isn’t just making contact at the top of the zone, however, he’s also hitting the ball hard. In the top third of the zone, Mayo has a 41.2% Hard-Hit Rate. There is no other player with a contact rate over 90%, and a hard-hit rate that high.

Most players who kill the high fastball do so because of a flat VBA and flat attack angle. This leads to them hitting a lot of ground balls, and failing to tap into their raw power in games due to the swing plane. Mayo does not follow that trend. He has a steep VBA with a flatter attack angle, and still has above-average flyballs rates — even in the top third. Why? It has a lot to do with his shoulder strength as he has no trouble with keeping his upper body intact while lifting the shoulder to get to the high pitch consistently. He also has fantastic barrel accuracy which plays a key role in making sure Mayo is not getting on top of pitches from the start, 

Coby Mayo is a monster against vertical movement, for similar reasons. Against pitches with plus vertical movement (18”), Mayo is unstoppable with a .573 xwOBAcon and an 83% contact rate. He is also unchallenged by flat approach angles as he has an 85.7% contact rate with a .435 xwOBAcon against pitches with a VAA flatter than the MLB average four-seam. Coby Mayo’s quick hands and direct bat path, also make velocity easy for Mayo to beat. He has a .473 xwOBAcon and an 85.3% Hard-Hit rate against fastballs at 95+. Everything you look for in the modern four-seam fastball, Mayo obliterates. "

[seak05]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Of course you forgot to show how good a high fastball hitter he is according to the article. 

"

COBY MAYO
Key Stats: 86.1% Contact, 68.2% ZSwing, 22.3% Chase, .451 xwOBAcon

Coby Mayo was the Orioles 4th round pick in the truncated 2020 draft. Just two and a half seasons later, Mayo is a consensus top 100 talent, and looks like he will be a core piece for the Orioles moving forwards. His success is in large part due to his outstanding ability to hit the high heat. 

Coby Mayo is good against all fastballs, but what makes him stand out from the pack is how good he is against the high fastball. Mayo has a 91.8% contact rate against fastballs in the top third of the strike zone. That is in the 99th percentile of all players at any level. Mayo isn’t just making contact at the top of the zone, however, he’s also hitting the ball hard. In the top third of the zone, Mayo has a 41.2% Hard-Hit Rate. There is no other player with a contact rate over 90%, and a hard-hit rate that high.

Most players who kill the high fastball do so because of a flat VBA and flat attack angle. This leads to them hitting a lot of ground balls, and failing to tap into their raw power in games due to the swing plane. Mayo does not follow that trend. He has a steep VBA with a flatter attack angle, and still has above-average flyballs rates — even in the top third. Why? It has a lot to do with his shoulder strength as he has no trouble with keeping his upper body intact while lifting the shoulder to get to the high pitch consistently. He also has fantastic barrel accuracy which plays a key role in making sure Mayo is not getting on top of pitches from the start, 

Coby Mayo is a monster against vertical movement, for similar reasons. Against pitches with plus vertical movement (18”), Mayo is unstoppable with a .573 xwOBAcon and an 83% contact rate. He is also unchallenged by flat approach angles as he has an 85.7% contact rate with a .435 xwOBAcon against pitches with a VAA flatter than the MLB average four-seam. Coby Mayo’s quick hands and direct bat path, also make velocity easy for Mayo to beat. He has a .473 xwOBAcon and an 85.3% Hard-Hit rate against fastballs at 95+. Everything you look for in the modern four-seam fastball, Mayo obliterates. "

I didn't forget, I was trying not to quote the whole write-up though, and so I quoted the part that I was specifically asking about, which was the weakness against low pitches/stiffness. I am not a scout, and so I was curious if you had seen the same thing as the author, or not. 

I literally put at the top that the article was in reference to how great he was at hitting the high fastball

[Tony-OH]

7 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I didn't forget, I was trying not to quote the whole write-up though, and so I quoted the part that I was specifically asking about, which was the weakness against low pitches/stiffness. I am not a scout, and so I was curious if you had seen the same thing as the author, or not. 

I literally put at the top that the article was in reference to how great he was at hitting the high fastball

You're right, and thanks for posting that. I wish I had that data because that's not stuff you can really see unless you watch every at bat looking for that stuff.

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Damn, I'd love to know where they get that information?

Most of that can be obtained from blast sensors & hit trax or rapsodo.  Not sure how they are privy to that info.  Most kids now going through PG are hooked to sensors and k vests as well as most off-site training facilities.  Wonder if some of those places sell their data?  

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Most of that can be obtained from blast sensors & hit trax or rapsodo.  Not sure how they are privy to that info.  Most kids now going through PG are hooked to sensors and k vests as well as most off-site training facilities.  Wonder if some of those places sell their data?  

The know where the data comes from. I'm wondering how this guy got ah old it because it's supposed to not be released yet. It pisses me off that this data is not available to the public for minor leaguers.