Top 10 is done..No Intl prospects

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not sure some people really know how much of a crap shoot this current system is over there. Players have to be recruited and agreements have to made at 14-years old, sometimes 15 years old for the top guys.

Do you realize how much projection it takes to know which one of these 14 and 15 years old will be able to handle professional level offspeed pitches or be have the aptitude to throw multiple quality pitches competitively?

Sure, there may be the few obvious guys, but a lot of those "obvious" guys have flamed out long before the majors. It's hard enough to know which 18-21 year olds will do well, which is why there are so many flame outs in the 1st round through the years, now drop another 4-7 years off that.

This place needs a draft like yesterday.

Saying all that, one of the two (Basallo) of the first big money players could be an impact guy at the major league level and I could have easily put him in the top 10 if I was going off more of a ceiling. 

But to show the inexact science, Hernandez, who has been a total flame out with the bat, was more highly thought of nationally and was even a top 50 international prospect by MLBpipeline.com. 

Meanwhile, in that same class (late signee) Bencosme has developed later and is now a Top-20 prospect in a pretty deep minor league system.

So if we start with the first class of high value signings (Basallo/Hernandez class) for the Orioles, which were made up of what would have been high school juniors in the states, they already have two of them in the top 20 and one could be an impact guy.

So yeah, I'm going to go out and say that it's way too early to give a grade to the International scouting but I think the early output is pretty decent. 

BTW, that doesn't even touch on guys like Braylin Tavera, Aron Estrada, and maybe even a Jean Mata who have potential and could be in the top 20 next year with good years in the FCL.

Jean Mata?   That sounds like a real longshot.  No offense.    I do think we had a very deep J2 class last year.   Strength in numbers.    In years past you might see 2-3 guys who were interesting and some of those didn't do well when going to the FCL from the DSL.   Junior Lara is a good example of that last year and a few years ago with Erison Placencia.

However, in last years class I can come up with about 7-10 guys who were 17 during the season and look promising and one guy I haven't even listed before, Edrie Campos, might be an additional player of interest.    You've got Mata, Tavera, and Raylin Ramos in the outfield.   Amparo, Arias, Estrada, Benavides, Velazquez, Cuevas, and Campos in the infield.

 

[Tony-OH]

23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Jean Mata?   That sounds like a real longshot.  No offense.    I do think we had a very deep J2 class last year.   Strength in numbers.    In years past you might see 2-3 guys who were interesting and some of those didn't do well when going to the FCL from the DSL.   Junior Lara is a good example of that last year and a few years ago with Erison Placencia.

However, in last years class I can come up with about 7-10 guys who were 17 during the season and look promising and one guy I haven't even listed before, Edrie Campos, might be an additional player of interest.    You've got Mata, Tavera, and Raylin Ramos in the outfield.   Amparo, Arias, Estrada, Benavides, Velazquez, Cuevas, and Campos in the infield.

 

You do know I talk to pretty high guys that are involved with these guys and not just looking at stats and making predictions? 

There are other talented guys down there for sure like most of the guys you mentioned, but there are reasons why I talk about the guys I do. 

Now guys will develop differently, and most of these guys are going to flame out, but when I mention a guy, I didn't just pull him out of hat.

You do a great job of tracking these guys, and I give you a lot of credit for your research, but give me a little credit when I mention something about a guy that I'm not winging it. 

Now, I caveat all of this with I haven't seen one of these guys besides a clip here or there. I do look at their stats like LD rates, swinging strike rates, K%, BB%, BABIP and their power output along with their actual stats as well.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You do know I talk to pretty high guys that are involved with these guys and not just looking at stats and making predictions? 

There are other talented guys down there for sure like most of the guys you mentioned, but there are reasons why I talk about the guys I do. 

Now guys will develop differently, and most of these guys are going to flame out, but when I mention a guy, I didn't just pull him out of hat.

You do a great job of tracking these guys, and I give you a lot of credit for your research, but give me a little credit when I mention something about a guy that I'm not winging it. 

Now, I caveat all of this with I haven't seen one of these guys besides a clip here or there. I do look at their stats like LD rates, swinging strike rates, K%, BB%, BABIP and their power output along with their actual stats as well.

Tony, I think you take my comments as a lack of respect for your knowledge and opinions.  That's not it.   It's just having a conversation.    Jean Mata could turn out to be very good.   Maybe something special.     Having said that, cracking the top 20 would take an awesome season in 2023 from Mata.   It's possible.   The one thing I see when looking at his stats (that's all I have to go on basically) is a total lack of power.   He might grow into power.   It's hard to see someone with his current profile making the jump into the top 20 by next season.

Going by stats, if I had to bet on someone it would be Ramos/Amparo/Arias/Benavides.   I admit it, that's going on pure stats although we've obviously seen that Amparo and Arias were 600K signings and had some buzz and Benavides was singled out by BA as someone who has talent and might be a sleeper from that J2 class.

BTW, I have mentioned Mata before because his 22 walks/24 strikeouts in 152 PA was one of the best combinations, if not the best, in the DSL teams.   That's certainly a good indicator.

Edited November 22, 2022 by RZNJ

[btownoriole]

19 hours ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Who’s the best player we’ve developed internationally? Johnathan Scoop? 

I gotta go with Dennis Martinez.  Of course the fact that he’s 67 years old doesn’t reflect well on our recent efforts.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Tony, I think you take my comments as a lack of respect for your knowledge and opinions.  That's not it.   It's just having a conversation.    Jean Mata could turn out to be very good.   Maybe something special.     Having said that, cracking the top 20 would take an awesome season in 2023 from Mata.   It's possible.   The one thing I see when looking at his stats (that's all I have to go on basically) is a total lack of power.   He might grow into power.   It's hard to see someone with his current profile making the jump into the top 20 by next season.

Going by stats, if I had to bet on someone it would be Ramos/Amparo/Arias/Benavides.   I admit it, that's going on pure stats although we've obviously seen that Amparo and Arias were 600K signings and had some buzz and Benavides was singled out by BA as someone who has talent and might be a sleeper from that J2 class.

BTW, I have mentioned Mata before because his 22 walks/24 strikeouts in 152 PA was one of the best combinations, if not the best, in the DSL teams.   That's certainly a good indicator.

Fair enough. Mata has a real good LD rate as well.

Honestly, your right about Mata. He's a little guy without a lot of power so it would be quite the feat for him.

 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

 

BTW, that doesn't even touch on guys like Braylin Tavera, Aron Estrada, and maybe even a Jean Mata who have potential and could be in the top 20 next year with good years in the FCL.

I’m interested to hear more about Estrada.  .368/.483/.566 will get my attention!   He’s listed at 5’8”, 142.   If so, that .198 ISO to go with high BA and OBP is pretty miraculous.  I saw he was floated for the no. 19/20 spot.   That’s probably ambitious, but I’m kind of hoping he makes the top 30 so we can get a full write-up on him.  

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’m interested to hear more about Estrada.  .368/.483/.566 will get my attention!   He’s listed at 5’8”, 142.   If so, that .198 ISO to go with high BA and OBP is pretty miraculous.  I saw he was floated for the no. 19/20 spot.   That’s probably ambitious, but I’m kind of hoping he makes the top 30 so we can get a full write-up on him.  

I'll post more on him soon, but he's a nice little all-around player who really outhit EVERYONE in the Orioles DSL team despite being a $175,000 signing. 

The only flags on him are his size, high GB rate and very high BABIP in the DSL.

[RZNJ]

Statistically speaking, have we ever had a better performing 17 year old in the DSL before than Aron Estrada?     I can't think of any.   Not that we've had many good 17 year olds in the DSL before.   Jon Schoop put up very mediocre .612 OPS as a 17 year old, which just goes to show that you never know.

[Tony-OH]

22 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Statistically speaking, have we ever had a better performing 17 year old in the DSL before than Aron Estrada?     I can't think of any.   Not that we've had many good 17 year olds in the DSL before.   Jon Schoop put up very mediocre .612 OPS as a 17 year old, which just goes to show that you never know.

His numbers are fantastic for sure. If they were attached to Braylin Tavera's body instead of his 5-8, 140 body, he'd be a top 20 guy already.

My other "concerns" are his high GB rate and high BABIP suggesting he got some hits due to shoddy defense. Also, he made a lot of errors at 2B and his defense was a question mark in his initial scouting report when he signed.

I also try to remember the Mishael Deson experience. 18-year old who put up these numbers in the FCL last year:

AVG    OBP    SLG    wOBA     wRC+
.369    .416    .515    .430        147

What I didn't notice that year was his .449 BABIP 

I got a little too interested him after hearing some good things said about him while in Florida, but then I saw in Delmarva and was like "Blah.. Slow bat, slow twitch guy who hits off his front foot. Long lanky guy who looks a little uncoordinated like he's still growing into his body."

Came back as a 19-year old and looked just as bad honestly. I'd take Stiven Acevedo over him anytime, Acevedo keeps disappointing above rookie ball.

Back to Estrada though. With the defensive concerns, size and high BABIP, I'm going to take a more cautious approach with him until I see him at at least Delmarva though if his bat is as advanced as it seems, he could get the Bencosme approach and move to Delmarva quicker than the others with more overall tools like Tavera and Amparo.

[RZNJ]

31 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

His numbers are fantastic for sure. If they were attached to Braylin Tavera's body instead of his 5-8, 140 body, he'd be a top 20 guy already.

My other "concerns" are his high GB rate and high BABIP suggesting he got some hits due to shoddy defense. Also, he made a lot of errors at 2B and his defense was a question mark in his initial scouting report when he signed.

I also try to remember the Mishael Deson experience. 18-year old who put up these numbers in the FCL last year:

AVG    OBP    SLG    wOBA     wRC+
.369    .416    .515    .430        147

What I didn't notice that year was his .449 BABIP 

I got a little too interested him after hearing some good things said about him while in Florida, but then I saw in Delmarva and was like "Blah.. Slow bat, slow twitch guy who hits off his front foot. Long lanky guy who looks a little uncoordinated like he's still growing into his body."

Came back as a 19-year old and looked just as bad honestly. I'd take Stiven Acevedo over him anytime, Acevedo keeps disappointing above rookie ball.

Back to Estrada though. With the defensive concerns, size and high BABIP, I'm going to take a more cautious approach with him until I see him at at least Delmarva though if his bat is as advanced as it seems, he could get the Bencosme approach and move to Delmarva quicker than the others with more overall tools like Tavera and Amparo.

FWIW, Hernaiz said the other night, when asked if anyone on the Delmarva team stood out to him, singled out Deson as a player who showed a lot of talent, but was unable to find himself or put it together in games.  He kind of hinted that he might get in better shape and needed a consistent approach at the plate.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

His numbers are fantastic for sure. If they were attached to Braylin Tavera's body instead of his 5-8, 140 body, he'd be a top 20 guy already.

My other "concerns" are his high GB rate and high BABIP suggesting he got some hits due to shoddy defense. Also, he made a lot of errors at 2B and his defense was a question mark in his initial scouting report when he signed.

I also try to remember the Mishael Deson experience. 18-year old who put up these numbers in the FCL last year:

AVG    OBP    SLG    wOBA     wRC+
.369    .416    .515    .430        147

What I didn't notice that year was his .449 BABIP 

I got a little too interested him after hearing some good things said about him while in Florida, but then I saw in Delmarva and was like "Blah.. Slow bat, slow twitch guy who hits off his front foot. Long lanky guy who looks a little uncoordinated like he's still growing into his body."

Came back as a 19-year old and looked just as bad honestly. I'd take Stiven Acevedo over him anytime, Acevedo keeps disappointing above rookie ball.

Back to Estrada though. With the defensive concerns, size and high BABIP, I'm going to take a more cautious approach with him until I see him at at least Delmarva though if his bat is as advanced as it seems, he could get the Bencosme approach and move to Delmarva quicker than the others with more overall tools like Tavera and Amparo.

Thanks, Tony, very helpful.  It seems that while stat lines always can be misleading, that’s especially true in the DSL/FCL.   Hopefully in this case there’s some substance to them!

[Hallas]

If Basallo's 50 overall future grade is his consensus grade then he would have been a top-10 prospect in most farm systems.  Fangraphs has 109 prospects with a 50 future grade or higher.  Even if you think they are stingy there wouldn't be more than 150 or so 50 grade prospects in the league, and 300 spots on top-10 lists.  I don't think we should think less of our international efforts because our domestic prospects have all wildly overperformed.

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Hallas said:

If Basallo's 50 overall future grade is his consensus grade then he would have been a top-10 prospect in most farm systems.  Fangraphs has 109 prospects with a 50 future grade or higher.  Even if you think they are stingy there wouldn't be more than 150 or so 50 grade prospects in the league, and 300 spots on top-10 lists.  I don't think we should think less of our international efforts because our domestic prospects have all wildly overperformed.

Basallo would be in my top 10.  But the point still remains the same.  He’s the only guy who is even close to being worth a mention. The Intl FAs haven’t produced much so far.

Of course, this is why I don’t care about them spending 7 figures and burning a lot of their pool on one player.  
 

With that said, obviously the guys who are getting the bigger bonuses are being viewed as the higher upside guys and so far, the Os seem to be striking out in that regards.

 

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Basallo would be in my top 10.  But the point still remains the same.  He’s the only guy who is even close to being worth a mention. The Intl FAs haven’t produced much so far.

Of course, this is why I don’t care about them spending 7 figures and burning a lot of their pool on one player.  
 

With that said, obviously the guys who are getting the bigger bonuses are being viewed as the higher upside guys and so far, the Os seem to be striking out in that regards.

 

It’s just way too early to say how they’re doing.  The January 2022 class was really the first one where I consider the O’s to have been on a somewhat even playing field with the teams that have been in their market for a longer time in a serious way.   In all probability, nobody from that class will even be in full season ball until 2024.   Who knows what we’ll think about those players then?

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

It’s just way too early to say how they’re doing.  The January 2022 class was really the first one where I consider the O’s to have been on a somewhat even playing field with the teams that have been in their market for a longer time in a serious way.   In all probability, nobody from that class will even be in full season ball until 2024.   Who knows what we’ll think about those players then?

It appears they struck out one high bonus player (Maikol Hernandez 1.3M).    Unless you want to consider Luis Gonzalez at 450K a high bonus player.   They've only signed 3 players over 1M and that includes Basallo, Hernanez, and Tavera.   The next two highest bonuses were to Amparo 650K and Arias 600K.