Trade Bait 2023

[ScGO's]

For every year of the Elias Era, I've written up a yearly Trade Bait thread in the offseason. This year is unique that I think we could be buyers, but overall, I believe Elias is going to try to mimic the Rays and Indians a bit in where they are always trying to be competitive while balancing the payroll.  I think Elias will continue to trade MLB pieces if he believes they have reached a peak value in terms of talent/salary, especially if he has his pipeline providing MLB ready talent to immediately replace a player. Just because a player is on here, doesn't mean I believe he will or should be traded. I'm just trying to think in terms of Elias. I went with Hot/Mild/Low in terms of likelihood of being traded

Hot

Anthony Santander - He's 28, hit a career high in HR last season, and he's probably at peak value. With two years left of control and arbitration pushing the salary up, Elias might be looking to deal.  Santander's potential production and salary numbers will still be more affordable and as productive than many of the Free Agent OFs.  If he stays with the O's, I believe his value is best as a DH as the O's were below league avg in corner OF value overall. Santander is one of the more likely 40 man pieces to be traded before the season starts in my opinion

Mild

Cedric Mullins - The CF Market could be active, but the options in Free Agency aren't awfully deep. Mullins didn't nearly match his 2021 output last year, but a 3.8 WAR is still very good. His defensive metrics were still good, as were his SB numbers. The problem is, I feel our overall OF depth is not that great and that Mullins still has a lot of value to the O's even if his salary takes a jump this year. However, Elias may be forced to consider the option of trading Mullins if it can bring back pieces that he places more value on in the long run. I think Elias also knows how valuable Mullins is to the foundation of the current starting 9, especially without an immediate replacement.

Ramon Urias - 3.6 WAR this year is pretty solid. He's versatile, and I believe he's got 20 HR pop. I struggle with deciding if he's at peak value though. If its not now, it would probably be at the trade deadline this year. However, he's turning 29 this season and there's not a lot of room for error with judging his peak value at this point. The GG helps give him an extra boost in value heading into the offseason. I think he's traded to clear up the infield log jam that could be coming. If he stays, he will probably move to 2B where the O's were 2nd to last in the league in position value. If he can maintain his dWAR and improve upon his offensive production, he could have even more value heading into the trade deadline.

Jorge Mateo - 3.4 WAR is pretty solid considering the lack of offensive production. I feel like Elias isn't pushing this as Mateo does have value as the starting SS, or he could be the replacement we need at 2B if we bring in a better SS like Correa or move Gunnar to SS. Elias probably only considers this trade if he is approached by another team that wants him as a low cost, controllable option. I feel the return could actually be solid; but I wonder if Elias is gambling a bit since he has so many solid MIF prospects on the cusp but not quite ready. He will begin the season at only age 27, so if Mateo can put up GG defensive numbers again, get his OPS up over .700, and continue to be among the league leaders in SBs, his value could sky rocket leading to a deadline trade, or event one in next year's offseason.

Dillon Tate - Depending on how Elias adds to the Rotation, I could see Voth, Hall, and Wells all being additions to an already solid Bullpen. I think Tate is also approaching that peak value point as he will be 29 on May 1st, is coming off his best year, and he's entering into arbitration. He could be a very low cost add for a team needing a RH bullpen piece, especially if Elias thinks he can get something he likes in return or add Tate as part of a bigger trade. He could be an offseason trade or even a trade deadline deal.

Low

Austin Hays - I don't think Elias likes trading a player when he believes there is more peak value potential. If you look at Austin Hays' 2nd Half in 2021 and his 1st Half in 2022, he's an above average corner OF with 25 HRs and close to a .790 OPS. I feel Hays was injured in much of the 2nd half last season. Currently, I don't see a lot of value or other teams being interested unless they felt they could buy low. However, he's an OF which we need as the moment, but if he can get hot in the 1st Half, could be a trade candidate leading up to the trade deadline if Cowser is ready.

Ryan Mountcastle - As far as WAR, he's averaged about 1.0 WAR per season in his 3 years. As much as it seemed that Ryan had a down year, he was actually more valuable in terms of WAR this season than in 2021 when he hit 33 HRs. He's still affordable, but with a career high 1.3 WAR, Jose Abreu and his 4.2 WAR shows how big a jump we could take offensively with a top tier 1B; even a mid tier 1B like Josh Bell was 3.0 WAR last year. However, the depth in FA 1B dive bombs after that. I don't see Elias trading below peak, but perhaps Elias thinks this is Mountcastle's peak and he adds him to part of a bigger trade before the season starts. If he does begin the season at 1B, much like Hays, he could be moved if he can put together a decent 1st half, much like Mancini did.

Austin Voth - Also entering arbitration and turns 31 this season. I think we need him now for SP depth, and he could become a good BP piece if Elias acquires more SP. Voth could end up not only being pushed out of the rotation, but also expendable based on Bullpen depth. He might be a good target for a team looking for affordable back of the rotation options or a bullpen piece.

Prospect Pool

Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Sam Basallo, Coby Mayo, Cesar Prieto, Darrell Hernaiz, Frederick Bencosme

This is the 1st year of looking into potential trades where I feel our prospects are on the table for acquiring MLB ready talent. I don't see Elias trading Pitching or OF prospects as we need to build our depth there. However, Hall, Cowser, Kjerstad, and others could be possibilities.

[oriole]

I think it’d have to be a pretty overwhelming offer to get Mullins. There isn’t another lead off style plus defender center fielder on the roster. Maybe Cowser can replace him but that’s far from a guarantee right now. 
 

Hays and Mountcastle would be sell low candidates and for that reason, I think they stay. Mountcastle obviously hit into some bad luck last year and Hays showed signs of his potential but was probably playing through significant injury towards the end of the season. So both have a lot of unrealized upside that is probably more valuable if they were to stay rather than whatever you’d trade them for. Same idea goes for Mateo. Especially with the larger bases coming in 2023. Not to mention that Mateo seems like a good option to move to 2B since the shift is gone. The potential of his contributions outweigh what I think they could get for him in a trade. 

The two major league pieces that I could see being moved are Urias and, to a lesser extent, Santander. Urias had a decent year, improved his reputation (but maybe not his trade value so much) with the gold glove, and he has a lot of control left but he is very much redundant on a team with as many infield prospects as this team has. Santander had a very good year but Elias has publicly refuted interest in trading him. Of course, that could be a ploy to increase potential suitors offers if he is seen as less attainable. But he also has a point when he says having Santander in the middle of the lineup is a good thing for the Orioles. Even if Santander was the every day DH and sometimes played the OF when Rutschman is DH then he would be a really good player to have around. If you trade him, you’ve got to replace his contributions somehow and that means signing someone. So then you run into the quandary of whether you trade him to fill another need and then sign someone to replace him or do you just keep him and sign someone to do what you were trading him for. 
 

Also, I think we see at least one of our better, but not best, prospects moved this off season. Probably from the infield bunch. Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Mayo….one of these guys is my guess. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, ScGO's said:

For every year of the Elias Era, I've written up a yearly Trade Bait thread in the offseason. This year is unique that I think we could be buyers, but overall, I believe Elias is going to try to mimic the Rays and Indians a bit in where they are always trying to be competitive while balancing the payroll.  I think Elias will continue to trade MLB pieces if he believes they have reached a peak value in terms of talent/salary, especially if he has his pipeline providing MLB ready talent to immediately replace a player. Just because a player is on here, doesn't mean I believe he will or should be traded. I'm just trying to think in terms of Elias. I went with Hot/Mild/Low in terms of likelihood of being traded

Hot

Anthony Santander - He's 28, hit a career high in HR last season, and he's probably at peak value. With two years left of control and arbitration pushing the salary up, Elias might be looking to deal.  Santander's potential production and salary numbers will still be more affordable and as productive than many of the Free Agent OFs.  If he stays with the O's, I believe his value is best as a DH as the O's were below league avg in corner OF value overall. Santander is one of the more likely 40 man pieces to be traded before the season starts in my opinion

Mild

Cedric Mullins - The CF Market could be active, but the options in Free Agency aren't awfully deep. Mullins didn't nearly match his 2021 output last year, but a 3.8 WAR is still very good. His defensive metrics were still good, as were his SB numbers. The problem is, I feel our overall OF depth is not that great and that Mullins still has a lot of value to the O's even if his salary takes a jump this year. However, Elias may be forced to consider the option of trading Mullins if it can bring back pieces that he places more value on in the long run. I think Elias also knows how valuable Mullins is to the foundation of the current starting 9, especially without an immediate replacement.

Ramon Urias - 3.6 WAR this year is pretty solid. He's versatile, and I believe he's got 20 HR pop. I struggle with deciding if he's at peak value though. If its not now, it would probably be at the trade deadline this year. However, he's turning 29 this season and there's not a lot of room for error with judging his peak value at this point. The GG helps give him an extra boost in value heading into the offseason. I think he's traded to clear up the infield log jam that could be coming. If he stays, he will probably move to 2B where the O's were 2nd to last in the league in position value. If he can maintain his dWAR and improve upon his offensive production, he could have even more value heading into the trade deadline.

Jorge Mateo - 3.4 WAR is pretty solid considering the lack of offensive production. I feel like Elias isn't pushing this as Mateo does have value as the starting SS, or he could be the replacement we need at 2B if we bring in a better SS like Correa or move Gunnar to SS. Elias probably only considers this trade if he is approached by another team that wants him as a low cost, controllable option. I feel the return could actually be solid; but I wonder if Elias is gambling a bit since he has so many solid MIF prospects on the cusp but not quite ready. He will begin the season at only age 27, so if Mateo can put up GG defensive numbers again, get his OPS up over .700, and continue to be among the league leaders in SBs, his value could sky rocket leading to a deadline trade, or event one in next year's offseason.

Dillon Tate - Depending on how Elias adds to the Rotation, I could see Voth, Hall, and Wells all being additions to an already solid Bullpen. I think Tate is also approaching that peak value point as he will be 29 on May 1st, is coming off his best year, and he's entering into arbitration. He could be a very low cost add for a team needing a RH bullpen piece, especially if Elias thinks he can get something he likes in return or add Tate as part of a bigger trade. He could be an offseason trade or even a trade deadline deal.

Low

Austin Hays - I don't think Elias likes trading a player when he believes there is more peak value potential. If you look at Austin Hays' 2nd Half in 2021 and his 1st Half in 2022, he's an above average corner OF with 25 HRs and close to a .790 OPS. I feel Hays was injured in much of the 2nd half last season. Currently, I don't see a lot of value or other teams being interested unless they felt they could buy low. However, he's an OF which we need as the moment, but if he can get hot in the 1st Half, could be a trade candidate leading up to the trade deadline if Cowser is ready.

Ryan Mountcastle - As far as WAR, he's averaged about 1.0 WAR per season in his 3 years. As much as it seemed that Ryan had a down year, he was actually more valuable in terms of WAR this season than in 2021 when he hit 33 HRs. He's still affordable, but with a career high 1.3 WAR, Jose Abreu and his 4.2 WAR shows how big a jump we could take offensively with a top tier 1B; even a mid tier 1B like Josh Bell was 3.0 WAR last year. However, the depth in FA 1B dive bombs after that. I don't see Elias trading below peak, but perhaps Elias thinks this is Mountcastle's peak and he adds him to part of a bigger trade before the season starts. If he does begin the season at 1B, much like Hays, he could be moved if he can put together a decent 1st half, much like Mancini did.

Austin Voth - Also entering arbitration and turns 31 this season. I think we need him now for SP depth, and he could become a good BP piece if Elias acquires more SP. Voth could end up not only being pushed out of the rotation, but also expendable based on Bullpen depth. He might be a good target for a team looking for affordable back of the rotation options or a bullpen piece.

Prospect Pool

Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Sam Basallo, Coby Mayo, Cesar Prieto, Darrell Hernaiz, Frederick Bencosme

This is the 1st year of looking into potential trades where I feel our prospects are on the table for acquiring MLB ready talent. I don't see Elias trading Pitching or OF prospects as we need to build our depth there. However, Hall, Cowser, Kjerstad, and others could be possibilities.

I think Elias deals the low OBP guys if he gets a fair offer. Hays, Mountcastle, and Mateo are tops on my available for trade list. 

[wildcard]

I think who Elias signs in FA will affect who he trades.   There are enough 2nd tier starters on the FA market that Elias should be able to sign one.    Abreu would help at DH/1B but it appears there are several contending teams that would sign him that the O's are probably not at the top on his list.   I am not sure there is anyone else of the FA market that helps the offense over Westburg or Stowers being given those at bats.

The backup catcher may require a trade.  But a minor one.  Maybe Prieto  or similar.

I think the O's will be in a better position to trade at the deadline  guys like Santander and maybe Urias possibly for prospects like Elias did for Mancini and Lopez.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I think who Elias signs in FA will affect who he trades.   There are enough 2nd tier starters on the FA market that Elias should be able to sign one.    Abreu would help at DH/1B but it appears there are several contending teams that would sign him that the O's are probably not at the top on his list.   I am not sure there is anyone else of the FA market that helps the offense over Westburg or Stowers being given those at bats.

The backup catcher may require a trade.  But a minor one.  Maybe Prieto  or similar.

I think the O's will be in a better position to trade at the deadline  guys like Santander and maybe Urias possibly for prospects like Elias did for Mancini and Lopez.

So stand pat and plug in more prospects. I hate your plan and I’m glad that’s not what Elias is saying.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

So stand pat and plug in more prospects. I hate your plan and I’m glad that’s not what Elias is saying.

It sounds like a great way to waste a year of Adley and Gunnar while keeping profits high.

[oriole]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It sounds like a great way to waste a year of Adley and Gunnar while keeping profits high.

Shhhh John might be perusing the boards. Don’t want to give him any ideas 

Edited November 26, 2022 by oriole

[ScGO's]

On 11/26/2022 at 11:13 AM, ScGO's said:

For every year of the Elias Era, I've written up a yearly Trade Bait thread in the offseason. This year is unique that I think we could be buyers, but overall, I believe Elias is going to try to mimic the Rays and Indians a bit in where they are always trying to be competitive while balancing the payroll.  I think Elias will continue to trade MLB pieces if he believes they have reached a peak value in terms of talent/salary, especially if he has his pipeline providing MLB ready talent to immediately replace a player. Just because a player is on here, doesn't mean I believe he will or should be traded. I'm just trying to think in terms of Elias. I went with Hot/Mild/Low in terms of likelihood of being traded

Hot

Anthony Santander - He's 28, hit a career high in HR last season, and he's probably at peak value. With two years left of control and arbitration pushing the salary up, Elias might be looking to deal.  Santander's potential production and salary numbers will still be more affordable and as productive than many of the Free Agent OFs.  If he stays with the O's, I believe his value is best as a DH as the O's were below league avg in corner OF value overall. Santander is one of the more likely 40 man pieces to be traded before the season starts in my opinion

Mild

Cedric Mullins - The CF Market could be active, but the options in Free Agency aren't awfully deep. Mullins didn't nearly match his 2021 output last year, but a 3.8 WAR is still very good. His defensive metrics were still good, as were his SB numbers. The problem is, I feel our overall OF depth is not that great and that Mullins still has a lot of value to the O's even if his salary takes a jump this year. However, Elias may be forced to consider the option of trading Mullins if it can bring back pieces that he places more value on in the long run. I think Elias also knows how valuable Mullins is to the foundation of the current starting 9, especially without an immediate replacement.

Ramon Urias - 3.6 WAR this year is pretty solid. He's versatile, and I believe he's got 20 HR pop. I struggle with deciding if he's at peak value though. If its not now, it would probably be at the trade deadline this year. However, he's turning 29 this season and there's not a lot of room for error with judging his peak value at this point. The GG helps give him an extra boost in value heading into the offseason. I think he's traded to clear up the infield log jam that could be coming. If he stays, he will probably move to 2B where the O's were 2nd to last in the league in position value. If he can maintain his dWAR and improve upon his offensive production, he could have even more value heading into the trade deadline.

Jorge Mateo - 3.4 WAR is pretty solid considering the lack of offensive production. I feel like Elias isn't pushing this as Mateo does have value as the starting SS, or he could be the replacement we need at 2B if we bring in a better SS like Correa or move Gunnar to SS. Elias probably only considers this trade if he is approached by another team that wants him as a low cost, controllable option. I feel the return could actually be solid; but I wonder if Elias is gambling a bit since he has so many solid MIF prospects on the cusp but not quite ready. He will begin the season at only age 27, so if Mateo can put up GG defensive numbers again, get his OPS up over .700, and continue to be among the league leaders in SBs, his value could sky rocket leading to a deadline trade, or event one in next year's offseason.

Dillon Tate - Depending on how Elias adds to the Rotation, I could see Voth, Hall, and Wells all being additions to an already solid Bullpen. I think Tate is also approaching that peak value point as he will be 29 on May 1st, is coming off his best year, and he's entering into arbitration. He could be a very low cost add for a team needing a RH bullpen piece, especially if Elias thinks he can get something he likes in return or add Tate as part of a bigger trade. He could be an offseason trade or even a trade deadline deal.

Low

Austin Hays - I don't think Elias likes trading a player when he believes there is more peak value potential. If you look at Austin Hays' 2nd Half in 2021 and his 1st Half in 2022, he's an above average corner OF with 25 HRs and close to a .790 OPS. I feel Hays was injured in much of the 2nd half last season. Currently, I don't see a lot of value or other teams being interested unless they felt they could buy low. However, he's an OF which we need as the moment, but if he can get hot in the 1st Half, could be a trade candidate leading up to the trade deadline if Cowser is ready.

Ryan Mountcastle - As far as WAR, he's averaged about 1.0 WAR per season in his 3 years. As much as it seemed that Ryan had a down year, he was actually more valuable in terms of WAR this season than in 2021 when he hit 33 HRs. He's still affordable, but with a career high 1.3 WAR, Jose Abreu and his 4.2 WAR shows how big a jump we could take offensively with a top tier 1B; even a mid tier 1B like Josh Bell was 3.0 WAR last year. However, the depth in FA 1B dive bombs after that. I don't see Elias trading below peak, but perhaps Elias thinks this is Mountcastle's peak and he adds him to part of a bigger trade before the season starts. If he does begin the season at 1B, much like Hays, he could be moved if he can put together a decent 1st half, much like Mancini did.

Austin Voth - Also entering arbitration and turns 31 this season. I think we need him now for SP depth, and he could become a good BP piece if Elias acquires more SP. Voth could end up not only being pushed out of the rotation, but also expendable based on Bullpen depth. He might be a good target for a team looking for affordable back of the rotation options or a bullpen piece.

Prospect Pool

Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg, Sam Basallo, Coby Mayo, Cesar Prieto, Darrell Hernaiz, Frederick Bencosme

This is the 1st year of looking into potential trades where I feel our prospects are on the table for acquiring MLB ready talent. I don't see Elias trading Pitching or OF prospects as we need to build our depth there. However, Hall, Cowser, Kjerstad, and others could be possibilities.

This was the first year where I thought most of our Trade Bait would be our prospect depth

However, as we get closer to the mid season; it'll be interesting to see if Elias tries to move veterans as part of a package in order to acquire pitching, create room for our surging prospects, and/or even reload a bit by picking up some controllable prospects

Its safe to assume that he will not be trading any of our pitchers whether on the big club or not. I also think that Cedric Mullins has to stay on the roster as he is solidifying himself as a top 5 CF; however they may revisit trading him this offseason if they don't extend him. I also wonder if Santander and Hays remain with the team until atleast this offseason.  It would be difficult to remove any of the starting OFs right now with the way they are playing

Our Veteran Trade Pool is probably as follows:

Ramon Urias: Versatility and consistency over the last couple years; just needs to stay healthy. The GG is consistently over OPS+ of 100 too. He is controllable and his versatility could keep him in Baltimore, especially if he is playing all 4 IF positions now

Jorge Mateo: Someone is going to have to overvalue his speed and defense while we find a SS option that puts out more offensive punch

Ryan Mountcastle: He would probably be an add on in a bigger trade, but with OHearn, Santander, and Urias getting 1B reps, he might be on the way out if they don't option him

Adam Frazier: Currently he's a 1.0 WAR 2B/OF. Not a ton of value, but could be a throw in to a bigger trade; I have a feeling he stays with the team all year as a Veteran presence even if he is bumped out of the starting line up

Austin Hays: Risky to trade as he's a big part of our offense, but this might also be his sell high moment. Elias is going to have to feel really good about his young OFs coming up and probably betting on Hicks staying productive

Anthony Santander: Much like Hays, risky to trade now as he's a big consistent part of our line up. Again, we could be in sell high mode for Santander, but if he starts getting reps at 1B/DH, he may be more valuable in that role to us than RF

Aaron Hicks: If the OF continues to get crowded with young talent and Hicks stays hot, this could be a cheap option for a team needing an OF

Position Prospects Pool: Norby, Westburg, Ortiz, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo, Prieto, Basallo, Beavers, Fabian, Haskins, Bencosme, Wagner

I think Elias ends up making deals for pitching that include a veteran and a couple prospects

[sportsfan8703]

I just don’t see us trading anyone from the MLB roster. Ortiz is getting a shot and not doing much offensively. No excuses. In sports, you have to make the best of your playing time. Stowers didn’t and neither is Ortiz. I’m all for trying the same thing with Westburg and Cowser. This idea that we can just trade away vets that have gotten us this far is a little cray. It’s not a video game. 

[ChuckS]

14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just don’t see us trading anyone from the MLB roster. Ortiz is getting a shot and not doing much offensively. No excuses. In sports, you have to make the best of your playing time. Stowers didn’t and neither is Ortiz. I’m all for trying the same thing with Westburg and Cowser. This idea that we can just trade away vets that have gotten us this far is a little cray. It’s not a video game. 

COMPLETELY disagree

[interloper]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just don’t see us trading anyone from the MLB roster. Ortiz is getting a shot and not doing much offensively. No excuses. In sports, you have to make the best of your playing time. Stowers didn’t and neither is Ortiz. I’m all for trying the same thing with Westburg and Cowser. This idea that we can just trade away vets that have gotten us this far is a little cray. It’s not a video game. 

Ortiz is getting a shot? He's got 32 ABs scattered across 3 different call-ups. So that's not even a sample of 32 ABs, it's like a sample of 3 tinier samples. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just don’t see us trading anyone from the MLB roster. Ortiz is getting a shot and not doing much offensively. No excuses. In sports, you have to make the best of your playing time. Stowers didn’t and neither is Ortiz. I’m all for trying the same thing with Westburg and Cowser. This idea that we can just trade away vets that have gotten us this far is a little cray. It’s not a video game. 

How important to our success have been Mateo, Urias, and Mountcastle? I would have no problem trading any of them for Jorge Lopez type of return. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

What are the chances of Cowser or Westburg getting packaged as a centerpiece in a trade to land an above average starting pitcher? With the depth of infield talent it wouldn't be shocking to see Elias trade an infielder to land a TOR starting pitcher.

I'd prefer to keep both players, but you have to trade talent to get back talent in return. That isn't happening with the likes of Mateo or Mountcastle, and I don't see Urias being as valued as Westburg by potential trade partners.

[HelenaEngineer]

20 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just don’t see us trading anyone from the MLB roster. Ortiz is getting a shot and not doing much offensively. No excuses. In sports, you have to make the best of your playing time. Stowers didn’t and neither is Ortiz. I’m all for trying the same thing with Westburg and Cowser. This idea that we can just trade away vets that have gotten us this far is a little cray. It’s not a video game. 

You think Ortiz having 33 PAs across 14 games spread over 3 months is "getting a shot"? Really?  And you are in favor of doing the same thing with Westburg and Cowser? I'll take a hard pass and leave them in Norfolk until the Orioles are actually going to give them a real shot, which is something I would like to see, although I don't see any reason why you give Westburg a real shot before you give one to Ortiz.

[sportsfan8703]

I like Ortiz, so I don’t want to trash him. I actually like rooting for all the players on our team, and not just the home grown ones. 
 

It’s only 30 PA, but the 9 SO 0BB is concerning. 
 

I just don’t think for this year that he gives us a better chance to win over Mateo, Urias, and Frazier. But it’s a 162 game season, Ortiz will get chances.