Orioles interested in Syndergaard?

[dzorange]

1 hour ago, tabletop said:

Syndergaard is better than Gibson and also has more upside. They would fit nicely as 4/5 in the rotation but they cannot be the best 2 signed.

I don’t know if I agree that he’s better than Gibson and has more upside. Even so, I think it’s mostly debating semantics. Syndergaard would also come at the cost of an extra year or two.

[nvpacchi]

thing that terrifies me with Syndergaard is his time to the plate. He's notoriously slow and all these new rules to benefit baserunners will put him at more of a disadvantage.

 

still it seems like the Os are really going all in on a type: average to below average stuff with above average to plus command. 

all Noah, Gibson, Voth, Wells, and Kremer fit that bill - and the new Camden obviously benefits these types more than old Camden,  but I do wonder what pitch/ mix refinement the analytics guys see in Noah? maybe they're hopeful in year 2 after TJ he gets a velocity and stuff bump now that he's used to his new elbow

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, nvpacchi said:

thing that terrifies me with Syndergaard is his time to the plate. He's notoriously slow and all these new rules to benefit baserunners will put him at more of a disadvantage.

 

still it seems like the Os are really going all in on a type: average to below average stuff with above average to plus command. 

all Noah, Gibson, Voth, Wells, and Kremer fit that bill - and the new Camden obviously benefits these types more than old Camden,  but I do wonder what pitch/ mix refinement the analytics guys see in Noah? maybe they're hopeful in year 2 after TJ he gets a velocity and stuff bump now that he's used to his new elbow

Buck?

[nvpacchi]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Buck?

I appreciate the joke but it is a legit concern.

since 2019 Syndergaard leads the league inSBs against 56 with only 3 CS. thats in half the innings against #2 on the list Robbie Ray.

 

now he doesn't have the big K rate to negate RISP anymore

 

https://razzball.com/sp-sagnof/

[Can_of_corn]

41 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

I appreciate the joke but it is a legit concern.

since 2019 Syndergaard leads the league inSBs against 56 with only 3 CS. thats in half the innings against #2 on the list Robbie Ray.

 

now he doesn't have the big K rate to negate RISP anymore

 

https://razzball.com/sp-sagnof/

How many runs resulted?

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

How many runs resulted?

If all of the stolen bases occurred with zero outs (the worst case scenario), then probably 33-34 runs would have scored in the 330 or so innings Syndergaard pitched during that time frame. So about a run every ten innings pitched. That's actually higher than I expected, but the actual number of runs is probably a little lower than 33-34. 

[Number5]

15 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

thing that terrifies me with Syndergaard is his time to the plate. He's notoriously slow and all these new rules to benefit baserunners will put him at more of a disadvantage.

Seemed to be less of a problem after he got to PHI, with Realmuto catching.  5 SB, 2 CS.  Was 25 SB, 1 CS last year before he got to Philly.  Perhaps the catcher plays a big part in this?  If so, we have a good one.  Just sayin'.

[Sports Guy]

He can’t be the guy you are getting to “lead” the rotation. I think the Os saw what he wanted and decided to go to a guy like Gibson who can do a similar job for far less money.

[nvpacchi]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Seemed to be less of a problem after he got to PHI, with Realmuto catching.  5 SB, 2 CS.  Was 25 SB, 1 CS last year before he got to Philly.  Perhaps the catcher plays a big part in this?  If so, we have a good one.  Just sayin'.

JT Realmuto is definitely the gold standard right now.  led the league last year in CS% at 44%, had the best pop time (.11 s faster than Adley) and the 4th strongest arm.  But even before last year he was league average in CS% for 2 straight seasons - makes me think that steals are much more pitcher dependent, although the catcher can have some influence on the situation.

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

If all of the stolen bases occurred with zero outs (the worst case scenario), then probably 33-34 runs would have scored in the 330 or so innings Syndergaard pitched during that time frame. So about a run every ten innings pitched. That's actually higher than I expected, but the actual number of runs is probably a little lower than 33-34. 

Thanks for doing the math on this one.

Maybe start with an assumption that if he pitches 150 innings, it would result in 10-12 more runs purely from the SB (using your assumption that its a bit less than a run every ten innings)?  That'd be a 0.6 bump to the ERA which is a pretty big bump, but of course if we compare it to the average pitcher permitting SBs, it probably only bumps the ERA maybe .3 or .4 over the average pitcher at holding on runners.

 

But in a new environment with more reason to be daring on the bases, perhaps this number gets amplified among the worst of the worst pitchers at holding runners on.  This will be an interesting season to see if pitchers get exploited or not.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

If all of the stolen bases occurred with zero outs (the worst case scenario), then probably 33-34 runs would have scored in the 330 or so innings Syndergaard pitched during that time frame. So about a run every ten innings pitched. That's actually higher than I expected, but the actual number of runs is probably a little lower than 33-34. 

Not sure where this math came from.  The average number of runs scored with a runner on 1st and nobody out is 0.94.   The average with a runner and second and nobody out is 1.17.   So, the stolen base is worth 0.23 runs.   56 stolen bases = about 13 runs.  And you are right that the run value of a SB declines if there are one out (0.16) or two outs (0.12).   So, in reality it’s less than 13 runs.  And since those are already baked into his ERA, I don’t see it as a concern that is separate from just analyzing how many runs he allows.  

[Ohfan67]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not sure where this math came from.  The average number of runs scored with a runner on 1st and nobody out is 0.94.   The average with a runner and second and nobody out is 1.17.   So, the stolen base is worth 0.23 runs.   56 stolen bases = about 13 runs.  And you are right that the run value of a SB declines if there are one out (0.16) or two outs (0.12).   So, in reality it’s less than 13 runs.  And since those are already baked into his ERA, I don’t see it as a concern that is separate from just analyzing how many runs he allows.  

I found analyses online stating that a runner on second with zero outs scores about 61% of the time. That’s where I got the numbers. 

[Frobby]

Just now, Ohfan67 said:

I found analyses online stating that a runner on second with zero outs scores about 61% of the time. That’s where I got the numbers. 

But you’d still need to know how often a runner scored from first with nobody out to know the “extra” runs attributed to the steal of 2B.

[Ohfan67]

24 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not sure where this math came from.  The average number of runs scored with a runner on 1st and nobody out is 0.94.   The average with a runner and second and nobody out is 1.17.   So, the stolen base is worth 0.23 runs.   56 stolen bases = about 13 runs.  And you are right that the run value of a SB declines if there are one out (0.16) or two outs (0.12).   So, in reality it’s less than 13 runs.  And since those are already baked into his ERA, I don’t see it as a concern that is separate from just analyzing how many runs he allows.  

I don’t think your math adds up when trying to estimate how many steals of second (which is another assumption I made…some of the steals were probably of third base) would result in a run. I was specifically replying to CoC’s question as to how many runs would result from a stolen base. 
 

That said, our estimates are both super back-of-the-envelope. A look at the game logs would provide a more definitive answer for sure. 
 

I also note that I’m not concerned about it. I was just responding to CoC’s question. 

[Ohfan67]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But you’d still need to know how often a runner scored from first with nobody out to know the “extra” runs attributed to the steal of 2B.

Good point. 

[Ohfan67]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not sure where this math came from.  The average number of runs scored with a runner on 1st and nobody out is 0.94.   The average with a runner and second and nobody out is 1.17.   So, the stolen base is worth 0.23 runs.   56 stolen bases = about 13 runs.  And you are right that the run value of a SB declines if there are one out (0.16) or two outs (0.12).   So, in reality it’s less than 13 runs.  And since those are already baked into his ERA, I don’t see it as a concern that is separate from just analyzing how many runs he allows.  

I think your estimate has to be closer to reality than mine. I was shocked by the number I came up with because I get into a few OH disagreements with other posters every few years when I try to highlight how relatively unimportant stolen bases are. Fun, but not very important when it comes to scoring runs and winning games.