Does a moo bat in the middle of the order and a top of rotation ace legitimately make us World Series contenders?

[eddie83]

19 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Were the Phillies a World Series contender this year?

My guess is this is how Elias views it. In that there is a clear advantage to division winner but once you are in you have a shot.  
 

We know that the Phillies, Mets and Braves all can’t win the NL East. All that money spent. They can all make the postseason but 2 would have to be WC’s. Then it comes down to a 3 game series. 
 

Elias does not think the Orioles are at their peak and is not willing to make splash moves yet. He will look bad if the arm he adds pitches poorly and that could be the difference in getting in or not. 
 

If the Orioles win 88 games and are the 6 seed say playing the Guardians and the Mets win 99 games and are playing the 95 win Phillies you could argue the Orioles are on equal ground. Of course then the conversation flips to how good/availability of the SP. Key of course is whether you make it or not.  

[sportsfan8703]

We’re adding Grayson. He’s a TOR SP. Means is a #3 when healthy. He’ll be back at some point. Hall has TOR potential. Bradish sure looked TOR against HOU at the end of the year in two starts. 
 

I like our rotation. I think we just need to add one more depth SP option. A Lyles reunion for 1yr 5 mil makes sense. That pushes Voth and Wells to the pen, and helps our MR options. 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We’re adding Grayson. He’s a TOR SP. Means is a #3 when healthy. He’ll be back at some point. Hall has TOR potential. Bradish sure looked TOR against HOU at the end of the year in two starts. 
 

I like our rotation. I think we just need to add one more depth SP option. A Lyles reunion for 1yr 5 mil makes sense. That pushes Voth and Wells to the pen, and helps our MR options. 

That is all possible but assumes a lot as well. Why I keep hammering home the idea of having Grod available in playoffs. 

[sportsfan8703]

47 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

That is all possible but assumes a lot as well. Why I keep hammering home the idea of having Grod available in playoffs. 

I just don’t get it. We developed players to get us here, now we can no longer rely on player development?  Unless our whole rotation is on multi year contracts, then I guess they’re unproven. Meanwhile, let’s trade away a proven AS/GG CF for Pablo Lopez?  I don’t get it. 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just don’t get it. We developed players to get us here, now we can no longer rely on player development?  Unless our whole rotation is on multi year contracts, then I guess they’re unproven. Meanwhile, let’s trade away a proven AS/GG CF for Pablo Lopez?  I don’t get it. 

Compare Bradish, Wells and Kremer to the other AL contenders. 
 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We’re adding Grayson. He’s a TOR SP.

So much is riding on that for this team.   I’d love for that to be true, and I it’s realistic to hope for that to be true.  But you never know until it happens.  The road is littered with guys who were considered to be the top pitching prospect at one time, but either they never reached ace status or their ascent took much longer than hoped.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We’re adding Grayson. He’s a TOR SP. Means is a #3 when healthy.

GrayRod has never faced a Major League hitter and probably will be capped at 130 or so innings, and Means is coming back from major surgery. Counting on them to carry the rotation at any point in 2023 is risky at best.

[btdart20]

My thoughts:

Making the playoffs is a marathon.  Going deep in the playoffs is a sprint.  Just like running, that's two different "skill sets" to win each type of race.

Making the playoffs has a ton of factors.  Depth is as big an issue as top talent.  Tons of ways to build a playoff caliber roster.  While going deep in the playoff leans toward top talent being healthy and on their game.  

MOO - I don't think a MOO is required to make the playoffs or to make a run in the playoffs.  But I think the term MOO is a bit subjective and many of us still have the Sosa/Canseco/Mountcastle mold of a MOO.  Judge batted leadoff quite a bit, and I think most of us would say he's a MOO not a table-setter.  But yes, high OPS hitters always help, but history has various ways to score runs.  I think of the Tampa's offense currently.  They have high OPS, but it's OBP heavy vs. SLG.  Studies have shown the offenses that stack OBP tend to outscore those who have high SLG (with the same OPS).  

To be a playoff contender, a TOR SP isn't a requirement.  In the regular season, a handful of #3 SPs can post a winning % at the team level.  STL, BAL, and MIN didn't have a 3 fWAR SP on their staffs.  SEA, TB, TEX, and NYY didn't have a 4 fWAR SP on their staffs (though a few had SPs who didn't have full season IP totals).  Each grouping were playoff contenders not based on their TOR.  There were teams who had 5.5+ fWAR SPs who missed the playoffs as well - LAA, SFG, and MIA.  #1 SPs can only pitch 32ish times out of 161 games.  

To be a WS contender, TOR pitching talent makes a difference.  In general, the best pitchers will beat the best hitters.  There are a ton of off days.  The level of hitters tend to be higher/more concentrated.  The level of opposing pitching tends to be higher.  Less talented teams simply don't make the playoffs as frequently.  Many hitters (good and bad) post their stats against bad pitchers and notice a big drop off against good/great pitchers.  (Fangraphs had an article on that recently, but I can't find it now.  They even looked at it from the opposite side of what hitters experienced the smallest drop against top pitchers - Jose Abreu was good at it.)  

I guess I'd frame it in a pithy way like:  Offense and defense are team build heavy.  But pitchers gonna pitch.  Sure, there's a pitching/defense connection (like GB pitchers and building a team for the OF dimensions...).  A deeper team of talent makes the playoff.  But the sprint at the end is weighted toward the top talent SPs.  

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

To be a WS contender, TOR pitching talent makes a difference.  In general, the best pitchers will beat the best hitters.  There are a ton of off days. 

I meant to add that compared to the regular season where the #1 SP goes 32ish times out of 161 (20%ish).  In the playoffs, that same #1 starts 33% of a 3-game series.  40% (2 starts) of a 5-game series.  And 28%+ (2 starts plus a few IPs) in a 7-game series.  

[Three Run Homer]

Would Cowser qualify as a "moo" bat?  

[Can_of_corn]

26 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Would Cowser qualify as a "moo" bat?  

COWser?

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Three Run Homer said:

Would Cowser qualify as a "moo" bat?  

No. Not unless he comes up and is somehow Gunnar or Adley. 2023 will be about getting his feet wet, if he even gets much playing time at all. That may depend on injuries. Os may add an OF veteran bat etc.

Edited December 14, 2022 by interloper

[Yossarian]

When period tall about a "middle of the order" bat,  what does that mean?  Who qualified as a MOO?

Judge and Schwarber were top of the order bats.

Are you talking Harper? Alonso? What makes a guy a MOO?  

[Redskins Rick]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

So much is riding on that for this team.   I’d love for that to be true, and I it’s realistic to hope for that to be true.  But you never know until it happens.  The road is littered with guys who were considered to be the top pitching prospect at one time, but either they never reached ace status or their ascent took much longer than hoped.  

This team is well acquainted with TOR prospects that never turn into their hype.

[Yossarian]

Just now, Yossarian said:

When period tall about a "middle of the order" bat,  what does that mean?  Who qualified as a MOO?

Judge and Schwarber were top of the order bats.

Are you talking Harper? Alonso? What makes a guy a MOO?  

There were so many times last year where we just needed someone to get a hit, any hit, to plate a run or two and extend the rally.  Getting a couple guys with higher batting averages, especially with guys on base,  seemed way more valuable than an additional 12 HR over the course of the season.