Eovaldi signed with Rangers per Moose

[Sports Guy]

Eovaldi will get 3 years although I did say someone will slip through the cracks so maybe he gets 2 years but if he does, it will be a higher AAV.

[btownoriole]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I think Eovaldi’s market has really been hurt by his injury concerns. In the first part of the year, he had his normal velo around 96-97 but then it dropped suddenly to 94 in his June 8 start and never came back. When he came back at the end of the year for two starts to prove he was healthy, he had his lowest velo of the year in the first start (93.6) and then it only bounced back to 94.4 in his final start, where it had been the whole year since his sudden drop off.

If injury concerns are limiting his market, he could be looking at a 1 yr deal or 2 yr with an opt out to prove he is healthy and re-enter FA. However, with the QO attached, that puts him in a really tough spot because not many teams are going to be willing to give up the draft capital for that. As a revenue sharing team that would give up less draft capital, it’s possible he could fall into our laps for a deal like that. The whole point of the wall was to make us a more attractive destination for FA pitchers hoping to rebuild value so maybe that’s all we are offering right now and hoping he settles for that. 

Eovaldi should have taken the QO.  It doesn’t make sense for the Orioles to take on a multi-year contract with his injury history and his declining velocity.  And it doesn’t make sense to give up a pick for a one-year deal with those risk factors attached.

[Yardball85]

Here's an article about him from a few days ago.

https://birdswatcher.com/2022/12/17/baltimore-orioles-nathan-eovaldi/

[LookinUp]

2 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I think Eovaldi’s market has really been hurt by his injury concerns. In the first part of the year, he had his normal velo around 96-97 but then it dropped suddenly to 94 in his June 8 start and never came back. When he came back at the end of the year for two starts to prove he was healthy, he had his lowest velo of the year in the first start (93.6) and then it only bounced back to 94.4 in his final start, where it had been the whole year since his sudden drop off.

I didn't know this about his velo. That tempers my hope that we sign him. I essentially wanted him because I remember a very live arm. Now the idea of giving up a pick for him is a little more alarming, though not a show stopper (for me).

I'm greedy though. I want them to sign Eovaldi and make a trade for another high end starter. The latter seems more likely now than the former (or both).

[sportsfan8703]

Wacha for 2/24 or Eovaldi for 2/30, with lots of incentives, opt out after year one, and loss of a pick?

Would Eovaldi even pass a physical?  
 

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

I could see Elias offering him 2/26 with incentives for starts and innings pitched that could get him to 34M if he stays healthy.   

It will cost the O's their competitive balance pick after the 2nd round of the draft and probably push either Vallimont or Zimmermann to be put on waivers.

It would also push Voth and Wells to the pen.  Probably make it much harder to keep Rules 5 draft pick Politi.

What do you think the odds are that Elias goes for Eovaldi?

I think Eovaldi will get a better contract than that, the way this winter has gone.   I will be surprised if we are the high bidder for his services.   

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, btownoriole said:

Eovaldi should have taken the QO.  It doesn’t make sense for the Orioles to take on a multi-year contract with his injury history and his declining velocity.  And it doesn’t make sense to give up a pick for a one-year deal with those risk factors attached.

I think he will at least sign a deal comparable to the QO - something like 1/20 is the floor for him. Ultimately I think he’s likely to end up with something like 2 yr 40m with an opt out in between. It’s not likely, but I could see the Orioles being a good fit - OPACY is now a attractive for him because he has reverse splits and the Orioles will give up less for the QO than many other teams. I think the general consensus on his contract at the start of the season was too high because of the injury issues last year.

Bassit is a pitcher of similar quality and an yr older, but much more durable and coming off a completely healthy season. If Eovaldi had a Bassit level 3 yr ~60m deal on the table I think he would have taken it by now. It would be foolish if he has that on the table and was holding out for a 4th year. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

We have not made enough improvements elsewhere to justify burning a top 75ish draft pick on a win now move.

Pass.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Kluber will likely get something like 1/15. Wacha will probably get 2 years, but perhaps at a lower AAV. Eovaldi is definitely a better pitcher than those guys and has much more upside if he bounces back to the 2021 version. But how much better that a team will want to give him 3/50-60 with the injury concern and QO penalty?

The Orioles and every other team in the market for a SP are looking at those 3 and weighing against the trade market. I don’t think Eovaldi separates himself in a huge way. 

[Tony-OH]

5 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I understand….. Elias is not trying to win. He’s been given a very modest amount of money to work with. He’s chosen to spread it around over a meaningful acquisition. He’s probably hoping for a new owner with an ego.

You keep saying this, but it doesn't jive with the rest of your post. I agree with you that I think Elias was given a very modest budget and that has affected his moves this offseason, but he most certainly is trying to win. 

Just because I don't agree with his Frazier move does not mean i think he's not trying to win. I think it's more of a situation where he and his evaluators feel these are the players that will help the team and with the hopeful improvements of Adley, Gunnar, Kremer and Bradish and the addition of Grayson, that may be enough to make the playoffs.

In theory, if we tread water with Frazier over Odor, Gibson over Lyle and McCann over Chirinos, the additions of Grayson and Givens to the pen, along with full year's of Adley and Gunnar could make this team 88 win team IF, and this is a big IF, if the starting pitching over the second half was real.

I still with like the addition of a #1/#2 type pitcher and MOO, but that might be budget related.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You keep saying this, but it doesn't jive with the rest of your post. I agree with you that I think Elias was given a very modest budget and that has affected his moves this offseason, but he most certainly is trying to win. 

Just because I don't agree with his Frazier move does not mean i think he's not trying to win. I think it's more of a situation where he and his evaluators feel these are the players that will help the team and with the hopeful improvements of Adley, Gunnar, Kremer and Bradish and the addition of Grayson, that may be enough to make the playoffs.

In theory, if we tread water with Frazier over Odor, Gibson over Lyle and McCann over Chirinos, the additions of Grayson and Givens to the pen, along with full year's of Adley and Gunnar could make this team 88 win team IF, and this is a big IF, if the starting pitching over the second half was real.

I still with like the addition of a #1/#2 type pitcher and MOO, but that might be budget related.

I think Elias is far more concerned with 2024 and will be pleasantly surprised if the Orioles make the playoffs in 2023.

[Roll Tide]

4 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Lyles signed with KC for 2 years $17 million guaranteed.

Not a clear distinction between the two. Some like Lyles better as he is 3 years young, some believe Gibson is better.

They are about the same….Lyles was technically better in 2022. They got Lyles for 8.5 per and we spent 10 on Gibson and have to go back to the scrap heap next offseason at likely 10-12.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

Why would he not be trying to win? Are you suggesting he is going to try and tank this year for the high draft pick? 

I’m saying winning isn’t important. He wouldn’t have wasted 20.5 million on replacing 4 replacement level guys with 4 more replacement level guys. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

You keep saying this, but it doesn't jive with the rest of your post. I agree with you that I think Elias was given a very modest budget and that has affected his moves this offseason, but he most certainly is trying to win. 

Just because I don't agree with his Frazier move does not mean i think he's not trying to win. I think it's more of a situation where he and his evaluators feel these are the players that will help the team and with the hopeful improvements of Adley, Gunnar, Kremer and Bradish and the addition of Grayson, that may be enough to make the playoffs.

In theory, if we tread water with Frazier over Odor, Gibson over Lyle and McCann over Chirinos, the additions of Grayson and Givens to the pen, along with full year's of Adley and Gunnar could make this team 88 win team IF, and this is a big IF, if the starting pitching over the second half was real.

I still with like the addition of a #1/#2 type pitcher and MOO, but that might be budget related.

He’s replacing junk with junk! Frazier is only less than 1WAR better than Odor who completely stunk as the announcers tried to sell us on his leadership value and double play ability. 
 

Gibsons numbers say he’s worse than Lyles for more money. I don’t care what they hope. 
 

McCann was worse than Chirinos for more money and we are stuck with him for 2 years. 

 

[Number5]

26 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Gibsons numbers say he’s worse than Lyles for more money. I don’t care what they hope. 
 

You have said this many times.  You've been wrong every time. 

First, it isn't more money.  The $1 million buyout to Lyles was earned before the ink was dry on the contract.  It has zero to do with Gibson.  Exercising the option to keep Lyles would have cost $11 million - not 6 as you keep claiming.  The difference between keeping Lyles and letting him go was $10 million, which happens to be exactly what we signed Gibson for.

Second, Gibson's numbers do not say he's worse than Lyles.  In fact, they scream the opposite.  Career-wise, there is simply no comparison.  It's a runaway.  You and a few others keep pointing out ERA and rWAR to somehow claim that Lyles outperformed Gibson in 2022.  While 2022 certainly was way better than Lyles' normal seasons, it was actually not better than Gibson's 2022.  FIP, xFIP, and fWAR are better measures for this comparison than ERA and rWAR.  Although Lyles came closer to Gibson in 2022 than he had in their careers up until then, Gibson still had the better season.  I'm not going to explain FIP and fWAR to you.  I believe you probably know what they are and why they are more appropriate for the comparison.  If not, you can readily find an explanation on the internet that would be better than I can explain it to you.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jordan-lyles/7593/stats?position=P

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-gibson/10123/stats?position=P

Edited December 22, 2022 by Number5