Braves lock up C Sean Murphy; Adley’s market value

[jabba72]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure.

But let's be honest here, it would take a terrible injury for him "not make anything" at this point.    Wieters made 38M in contracts after TJ.

It is very likely that a number exists that would entice him to sign a long term deal.

I kind of agree which is why I think its going to take a hefty extension for him to sign. He'll be 30 as a FA but recent trends suggest he could still get a 6-7 year deal at premium price. Maybe even 8 years if he's still playing well.

[waroriole]

5 hours ago, jabba72 said:

Offer Gunnar 10 -230 and Adley 8-160. They can scale it up 10-20m or so if they feel necessary.  

That’s insanely high. Look at the arbitration numbers for this year’s group of FA SS. If you want to offer Gunnar 10 years, it would top out at 140. That breakdown would go like this:

1. 750K

2. 750K

3. 750K

4. 6M

5. 9M

6. 12M

7. 25M (FA)

8. 27M

9. 27M

10. 30M

That’s 10/137. What your proposing would end up being 50M for FA years. 

[Can_of_corn]

I think folks are a bit higher on Gunnar than maybe they should be.

He didn't finish strong.

Overall it was a great debut don't get me wrong.

But it wasn't he's a lock to be one of the best players in the game good.

He ended up on pace for about a 4 win season.

I'm all for extending him but it shouldn't be for a deal that's going to pay him as one of the absolute top tier guys.

 

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think folks are a bit higher on Gunnar than maybe they should be.

He didn't finish strong.

Overall it was a great debut don't get me wrong.

But it wasn't he's a lock to be one of the best players in the game good.

He ended up on pace for about a 4 win season.

I'm all for extending him but it shouldn't be for a deal that's going to pay him as one of the absolute top tier guys.

 

I agree.  He might turn out to be as good or better than Adley, but Adley has a much higher floor.  

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

My main point is that I believe the Oriole are in a fairly good position to secure him long term if they really are so inclined. 

Money is all it takes.  

[jabba72]

46 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think folks are a bit higher on Gunnar than maybe they should be.

He didn't finish strong.

Overall it was a great debut don't get me wrong.

But it wasn't he's a lock to be one of the best players in the game .

He ended up on pace for about a 4 win season.

I'm all for extending him but it shouldn't be for a deal that's going to pay him as one of the absolute top tier guys.

 

Isnt that worth roughly 30m on the open market? Gunnars agent probably thinks this. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Gunnar looked pretty good considering he was the youngest player in MLB. Maybe Gunnar won't be super elite, but I'll be more surprised than not if he isn't a regular all star caliber player. 

Adley's floor is higher than Gunnar, but I also think Gunnar's potential ceiling as a player is higher than Adley's. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

On 12/29/2022 at 9:07 PM, emmett16 said:

I like money, do you like money?

Of course, but if I was an elite player at a position of extreme scarcity that had already earned over $10 million dollars, I might not be in any rush to commit long-term to a team that has not made any meaningful attempt to improve after almost making the playoffs the previous season and that sells when within a couple of games of a playoff spot.

On 12/29/2022 at 12:53 PM, tntoriole said:

Oh .. the “good players” he traded then sucked the rest of the season, right?  Minor detail left out.  Do you want them back for 2023?  These “good” players? Or was that actually a smart move? 
 

Would they have still "sucked" if they had not been uprooted from their current situation and deposited into an unfamiliar one with added pressure? Tough to say. Maybe, maybe not.

But I'd bet money that the players who stayed behind, like Adley, were not exactly thrilled to see solid (to that point) contributors removed from the team when they were within a hot week of a playoff spot, and it would certainly be a data point I would consider when deciding whether or not to sell the bulk of my best years to that team prior to reaching free agency.

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Of course, but if I was an elite player at a position of extreme scarcity that had already earned over $10 million dollars, I might not be in any rush to commit long-term to a team that has not made any meaningful attempt to improve after almost making the playoffs the previous season and that sells when within a couple of games of a playoff spot.

Would they have still "sucked" if they had not been uprooted from their current situation and deposited into an unfamiliar one with added pressure? Tough to say. Maybe, maybe not.

But I'd bet money that the players who stayed behind, like Adley, were not exactly thrilled to see solid (to that point) contributors removed from the team when they were within a hot week of a playoff spot, and it would certainly be a data point I would consider when deciding whether or not to sell the bulk of my best years to that team prior to reaching free agency.

I think there are a lot of variables.  Adley had a fairly significant shoulder injury playing football in high school, does something pop up on a physical? does that get aggravated over the next few years? (See Correa).  Folks think Elias was gaming him to start year, but he obviously had a significant enough injury to set him back and hamper his throwing for the first month+ of his season.  Wieters injury came long after he had accrued significant service time.  If Adley gets hurt early in his career, he would not have that same tenure and earning power.   I agree he is in a unique position being a freak show at a position of need in MLB, but to me goal #1 of the FO should be wrapping him up for 8-10 years and making him an Oriole lifer. 

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Of course, but if I was an elite player at a position of extreme scarcity that had already earned over $10 million dollars, I might not be in any rush to commit long-term to a team that has not made any meaningful attempt to improve after almost making the playoffs the previous season and that sells when within a couple of games of a playoff spot.

Would they have still "sucked" if they had not been uprooted from their current situation and deposited into an unfamiliar one with added pressure? Tough to say. Maybe, maybe not.

But I'd bet money that the players who stayed behind, like Adley, were not exactly thrilled to see solid (to that point) contributors removed from the team when they were within a hot week of a playoff spot, and it would certainly be a data point I would consider when deciding whether or not to sell the bulk of my best years to that team prior to reaching free agency.

Adley will most likely do so if the money convinces him and if the team is winning.  All the rest is just projective speculation as to what you think so that must be what Adley thinks. Maybe Adley has different thoughts. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Adley will most likely do so if the money convinces him and if the team is winning.  All the rest is just projective speculation as to what you think so that must be what Adley thinks. Maybe Adley has different thoughts. 

Yes, I am speculating.

You are too.

5 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I think there are a lot of variables.  Adley had a fairly significant shoulder injury playing football in high school, does something pop up on a physical? does that get aggravated over the next few years? (See Correa).  Folks think Elias was gaming him to start year, but he obviously had a significant enough injury to set him back and hamper his throwing for the first month+ of his season.  Wieters injury came long after he had accrued significant service time.  If Adley gets hurt early in his career, he would not have that same tenure and earning power.   I agree he is in a unique position being a freak show at a position of need in MLB, but to me goal #1 of the FO should be wrapping him up for 8-10 years and making him an Oriole lifer. 

I doubt there is much reason to be concerned about that old injury since the Orioles, renowned/rebuked for their stringent physicals, were still comfortable giving him the largest (at the time) draft bonus ever even after seeing his results.

I do agree that hammering out an extension with him this offseason should be an extremely high prioriry for the FO though, even if I do not think it's all that likely that he would be willing to sign one presently. There's only one way to find out for sure and that is to give it an earnest effort. Sadly, the ownership situation probably means that no meaningful attempt will be made because of the generally accepted premise that having no large contracts on the books increases the appeal of a franchise to a prospective buyer.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Yes, I am speculating.

You are too.

I doubt there is much reason to be concerned about that old injury since the Orioles, renowned/rebuked for their stringent physicals, were still comfortable giving him the largest (at the time) draft bonus ever even after seeing his results.

I do agree that hammering out an extension with him this offseason should be an extremely high prioriry for the FO though, even if I do not think it's all that likely that he would be willing to sign one presently. There's only one way to find out for sure and that is to give it an earnest effort. Sadly, the ownership situation probably means that no meaningful attempt will be made because of the generally accepted premise that having no large contracts on the books increases the appeal of a franchise to a prospective buyer.

I guess we'll see what the Angels go for this year.

I'm thinking it's well north of a Billion even with the questionable contracts.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I guess we'll see what the Angels go for this year.

I'm thinking it's well north of a Billion even with the questionable contracts.

Being in one of the biggest media markets on Earth probably helps to offset the iffy payroll situation.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Being in one of the biggest media markets on Earth probably helps to offset the iffy payroll situation.

I've not seen a study that indicates that slashing payroll makes any difference.

I think that for most perspective owners having Gunnar/Adley locked up long term with reasonable deals would enhance the appeal.

 

I also think the Angelos family has never been willing to extend someone before their arbitration window opens and I don't expect that to change.

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've not seen a study that indicates that slashing payroll makes any difference.

I think that for most perspective owners having Gunnar/Adley locked up long term with reasonable deals would enhance the appeal.

 

I also think the Angelos family has never been willing to extend someone before their arbitration window opens and I don't expect that to change.

In my opinion, it’s pretty much common sense that:

1.  A good team with an excited fan base that attends and watches games is more valuable than a bad, boring team with a disinterested fan base. 

2.  Well-priced long term deals help a team to be good.

3.  Poorly-priced long term deals hurt a team’s chances to be good.   

4.  A good team with a lower payroll and few long term commitments is more valuable than a good team with a higher payroll and many long term commitments.   But it’s hard to be a consistently good team with a low payroll and few long term commitments.