Pondering Holt's plans for Vallimont

[Owen21]

Chris Vallimont continues to occupy the 40 man. Is he a sleeper for this season?

[Frobby]

Put it this way, I don’t know a thing about him beyond what his numbers say, and his numbers don’t say anything good.  So yes, if he provides any positive value at all in 2023, he’ll be a huge sleeper.   

[RZNJ]

I suspect he’s in the starting rotation for Norfolk.  His walk:strikeout numbers were good and he had that dominant start at Bowie.  Possible future bullpen piece although I didn’t see the wipeout slider he’s supposed to have.  He’s on the fringe of the 40 man though.

[Owen21]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Put it this way, I don’t know a thing about him beyond what his numbers say, and his numbers don’t say anything good.  So yes, if he provides any positive value at all in 2023, he’ll be a huge sleeper.   

His numbers don't say roster spot, but there he is. I look at how Watkins kind of figured out how to remain in a game for five innings at times. 

 

[Sanity Check]

I actually saw him start two games at Norfolk toward the end of their season, and he didn't look dominant....which is probably why we don't hear too much about him.

His numbers don't suggest that he'd be a strong candidate to make the major league team out of spring training and the only way he gets a shot is if we have a lot of injuries, or he figures out how to get batters out consistently.

[Jammer7]

The fact that he is still here means to me they like him and believe he may just need more time. I found this pre 2022 write up by Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs interesting. They ranked Vallimont as the #27 in the Twins organization then.

Vallimont started the season a couple of weeks late with a game at Low-A Fort Myers, a rehab start that came after missing time with back spasms. In that start, he posted a CSW rate of 41%, missing bats with all four of his offerings and issuing six strikeouts in his three innings of work without allowing a free pass. But that would be the only outing of his season in which he didn’t allow a walk. After that game, he was skipped up to Double-A, where his 21 starts were far from flawless; his ERA and BB/9 were both 6.03. On the bright side, he struck out almost a third of the Double-A batters he faced, and his fastball velocity was in the 91-96 mph range, way up from the 89-92 he showed in 2019. He’s further shortened his arm action, and those alterations may have hurt his feel for release and could be to blame for some of the location variability. The Twins protected Vallimont from the Rule 5. Right now, he is trending toward a relief role, with a backend starter ceiling.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/minnesota-twins-top-39-prospects-2022/

(Also, an interesting write up on Povich in that article as well.)

I was not aware that Vallimont shortened his arm angle, so it does seem to give some background for the patience being shown. I am curious if he stuck with it, or went back to the longer movement. He has two options left, according to Roster Resource. He was also a Top 100 player according to ZIPS in their pre 2021 list, #83.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-top-100-prospects/

A small school guy with a ton of life on his fastball, the COVID layoff did not help his development. A consistent release point is supposed to be the issue. I know the AAA numbers were bad, but he has time. I don’t think he is very close to being DFA. If he had a poor work ethic, they would have DFA’d him already. He needs innings and reps, so he should keep starting for the immediate future in AAA. I wonder how the organization compares him to Baumann, internally. 

[wildcard]

I see four roster spots that Elias can play with until opening day.  Means and Johnson will probably go on the 60 day IL plus Vallimont and Zimmermann could be put on waivers.   All it would take for Elias to add through the waiver wire is someone he think  is better than Vallimont or Zimmermann.  That shouldn't be that hard to do.

I think Westburg takes one of those spots by opening day.

Edited January 1, 2023 by wildcard

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I see four roster spots that Elias can play with until opening day.  Means and Johnson will probably go on the 60 day IL plus Vallimont and Zimmermann could be put on waivers.   All it would take for Elias to add through the waiver wire is someone he think  is better than Vallimont or Zimmermann.  That shouldn't be that hard to do.

I think Westburg takes one of those spots by opening day.

You might be right. I think they might release Logan Gillespie, maybe Andrew Politti and Joey Krehbiel, before Vallimont. There is plenty of options inside the organization for pen depth. Givens impacts both guys I listed. If they need shuttle arms, Baumann, Watkins, Denoyer, Watson, Uvila, Hoffman, Vespi, Cano, Lucas, Loeprich, McSweeney, Bazardo and Gomez.

Vallimont was bad in Norfolk last year, no argument. But I think they will stay patient because of what they think he can be.

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

You might be right. I think they might release Logan Gillespie, maybe Andrew Politti and Joey Krehbiel, before Vallimont. There is plenty of options inside the organization for pen depth. Givens impacts both guys I listed. If they need shuttle arms, Baumann, Watkins, Denoyer, Watson, Uvila, Hoffman, Vespi, Cano, Lucas, Loeprich, McSweeney, Bazardo and Gomez.

Vallimont was bad in Norfolk last year, no argument. But I think they will stay patient because of what they think he can be.

People are so down on Khreibel because he blew that lead against the Astros late in the year. He was our 4th best reliever last year. He faded down the stretch but was a clutch performer the first 140 games of the season. 

[Jammer7]

36 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

People are so down on Khreibel because he blew that lead against the Astros late in the year. He was our 4th best reliever last year. He faded down the stretch but was a clutch performer the first 140 games of the season. 

I am one that usually defends him, honestly. I just think he is easily replaceable with the addition of Givens. His deception is what makes him good. I’m not sure he’s very durable, as he appeared to wear down in the second half. It was a very ugly second half for him, if we’re being honest. I find that Vallimont may bring more value overall than a reliever that is quite easily replaced.

[sportsfan8703]

31 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I am one that usually defends him, honestly. I just think he is easily replaceable with the addition of Givens. His deception is what makes him good. I’m not sure he’s very durable, as he appeared to wear down in the second half. It was a very ugly second half for him, if we’re being honest. I find that Vallimont may bring more value overall than a reliever that is quite easily replaced.

Khreibel should have a 40 man spot over Politi and Gilaspie. Khreibel also has an option remaining for next year. Zimmerman and Vallimont are debatable, depending on if add another SP. 

[sportsfan8703]

Well I think we got our answer on who next on the chopping block out of Vallimont, Zimmerman, Gilaspie, Politi, and Khreibel. 

[Jammer7]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Well I think we got our answer on who next on the chopping block out of Vallimont, Zimmerman, Gilaspie, Politi, and Khreibel. 

Yep. Forget what I said. 

[sportsfan8703]

Vallimont cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA. I’d have the bottom of the 40 man as,

40. Logan Gilaspie 

39. Lewin Diaz

38. Andrew Politi

37. Mike Baumann

36. Bruce Zimmerman

I’m also pretty sure around 2/14 that we can put Seth Johnson, John Means, and probably Nick Vespi on the 60 day IL and open up three more spots. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Vallimont cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA. I’d have the bottom of the 40 man as,

40. Logan Gilaspie 

39. Lewin Diaz

38. Andrew Politi

37. Mike Baumann

36. Bruce Zimmerman

I’m also pretty sure around 2/14 that we can put Seth Johnson, John Means, and probably Nick Vespi on the 60 day IL and open up three more spots. 

I see Zimmermann and Diaz as the most vulnerable.  I don't think Vespi goes on the 60 day IL.   Report is he should be ready before that.