John Angelos/Mike Elias 1 hour interview 105.7 today

[LTO's]

13 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

A general manager has to be willing and able to take some risks in acquiring talent from outside the organization. So far Elias has been unwilling or unable to do that. I believe that will have to change for the Orioles to contend. Another roadblock that may stay in place until there's new ownership. 

What team/player do you think matches up well with the Orioles right now? I agree with your overall point but what Elias said has been backed up by many people. There just aren't more than a handful of teams that could be considered "tanking". When that's the case, teams looking to trade prospects for big leaguers are the ones most affected. Unless they could somehow get something valuable for Mateo, you're looking at subtracting from an already suspect offense for what is probably a modest gain in the rotation. Making a move just to make one is how failures happen. 

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, LTO's said:

What team/player do you think matches up well with the Orioles right now? I agree with your overall point but what Elias said has been backed up by many people. There just aren't more than a handful of teams that could be considered "tanking". When that's the case, teams looking to trade prospects for big leaguers are the ones most affected. Unless they could somehow get something valuable for Mateo, you're looking at subtracting from an already suspect offense for what is probably a modest gain in the rotation. Making a move just to make one is how failures happen. 

The “suspect offense” at least has reinforcements coming and coming quickly. The pitching staff really doesn’t.

Much better to take away from the ML talent, some of which needs to go soon anyway.

[justD]

4 hours ago, LTO's said:

What team/player do you think matches up well with the Orioles right now? I agree with your overall point but what Elias said has been backed up by many people. There just aren't more than a handful of teams that could be considered "tanking". When that's the case, teams looking to trade prospects for big leaguers are the ones most affected. Unless they could somehow get something valuable for Mateo, you're looking at subtracting from an already suspect offense for what is probably a modest gain in the rotation. Making a move just to make one is how failures happen. 

I know all the arguments.  I also know that every morning I wake up looking for an MLB Notification or an email alert that tells me that a trade has occurred, for quality starting pitching.  It may be silly, but I still find myself doing that every. single. morning.

[LTO's]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The “suspect offense” at least has reinforcements coming and coming quickly. The pitching staff really doesn’t.

Much better to take away from the ML talent, some of which needs to go soon anyway.

Who needs to go soon and what caliber of SP are they bringing back? 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Who needs to go soon and what caliber of SP are they bringing back? 

You have a roster issue if/when Cowser, Westburg and Ortiz force themselves up here (which should be now or very quickly)..Norby and Kjerstad are potentials as well. Mayo is a year away..Holliday perhaps the same.

Plus if you ever trade for or sign higher end talent at those positions.

So, between now and next offseason, you are going to have to trade several guys..and they should have already really.

Edited January 23, 2023 by Sports Guy

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You have a roster issue if/when Cowser, Westburg and Ortiz force themselves up here (which should be now or very quickly)..Norby and Kjerstad are potentials as well.

Plus if you ever trade for or sign higher end talent at those positions.

So, between now and next offseason, you are going to have to trade several guys..and they should have already really.

It's not that easy. You have to find a team willing to trade ML talent for prospects (Elias is right. Teams aren't tanking like in years past). OR find someone to take Mateo and/or Urias. Those guys have value at around 3 WAR but they have flaws and teams may be hesitant until they see more. It would be foolish to just give them away because you have prospects coming up. Prospects who quite frankly are very unlikely to be ~3 WAR players in 2023.

Mullins is a well above average CF just entering arb and Santander is a switch hitting 30 HR, 120 wRC+ DH option with years remaining as well. He had a low BAPIP last year with great xstats and should benefit from the shift rules. Those two should only be moved for elite SP. 

[spiritof66]

4 hours ago, LTO's said:

What team/player do you think matches up well with the Orioles right now? I agree with your overall point but what Elias said has been backed up by many people. There just aren't more than a handful of teams that could be considered "tanking". When that's the case, teams looking to trade prospects for big leaguers are the ones most affected. Unless they could somehow get something valuable for Mateo, you're looking at subtracting from an already suspect offense for what is probably a modest gain in the rotation. Making a move just to make one is how failures happen. 

I haven't looked at that at all. I used to spend some time in the off-season, back around 2012-16, looking at possible trades. I found it tremendously unsatisfying, and  I don't do it any more.

At a more general level, I think it's clear that the Orioles should be trying to improving their rotation. I also think it's very likely that they could have signed a helpful free agent starter if they were willing to offer a multi-year contract that included an undesirable season or two at the back end. I also think they could snag a good starter if they were willing to trade one of their prime ML-ready or almost-ML-ready prospects. Elias had decided so far to do neither, and as a result he hasn't accomplished what he was trying to accomplish. It may be that was the right decision, even though it's not one that I see propelling the Orioles toward contention. (FWIW, I would try to sign Wacha for two years, with lots of incentives, but I understand there are good reasons for not doing that.)

My point is that Elias, now in his fifth year with the Orioles, has not yet made a deal in which he gave up meaningful talent or spent meaningful money to acquire transformational player, and I wonder whether or when he will. Whatever's behind that -- limitations imposed by ownership, misreading the market for free agent starters, Elias's  inability to pull the trigger, his fear of a big signing or trade turning out badly, even sound judgment -- gives me concern about how and when this team will deploy its resources toward building a contender.

 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, LTO's said:

It's not that easy. You have to find a team willing to trade ML talent for prospects (Elias is right. Teams aren't tanking like in years past). OR find someone to take Mateo and/or Urias. Those guys have value at around 3 WAR but they have flaws and teams may be hesitant until they see more. It would be foolish to just give them away because you have prospects coming up. Prospects who quite frankly are very unlikely to be ~3 WAR players in 2023.

Mullins is a well above average CF just entering arb and Santander is a switch hitting 30 HR, 120 wRC+ DH option with years remaining as well. He had a low BAPIP last year with great xstats and should benefit from the shift rules. Those two should only be moved for elite SP. 

Lots of overrating of our guys going on here.

All I will agree with is that you don’t trade guys just to trade them.

But I guarantee you that if they keep holding onto guys, you will see values of players drop. Some may also rise but overall, values are more likely to drop and when they do, you won’t be getting the assets for them that you can now.

Its inevitable.

[HakunaSakata]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lots of overrating of our guys going on here.

All I will agree with is that you don’t trade guys just to trade them.

But I guarantee you that if they keep holding onto guys, you will see values of players drop. Some may also rise but overall, values are more likely to drop and when they do, you won’t be getting the assets for them that you can now.

Its inevitable.

This is 100% the argument for exploring Santander trades, whether you think we need him this season or not. 

[LTO's]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lots of overrating of our guys going on here.

All I will agree with is that you don’t trade guys just to trade them.

But I guarantee you that if they keep holding onto guys, you will see values of players drop. Some may also rise but overall, values are more likely to drop and when they do, you won’t be getting the assets for them that you can now.

Its inevitable.

Yeah this one of those stock responses you make when you can't argue anything. I didn't overrate anyone. You are just very unrealistic about the nature of trades in MLB. It's incredibly difficult to pull them off and especially so when teams are no longer tearing things down before the season. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Yeah this one of those stock responses you make when you can't argue anything. I didn't overrate anyone. You are just very unrealistic about the nature of trades in MLB. It's incredibly difficult to pull them off and especially so when teams are no longer tearing things down before the season. 

Saying we need ELITE pitching for Santander is one of the most over the top, absurd statement I have seen on here.  It’s laughable.  
 

I never said trades were easy.  But if you are going to be that dumb and completely overrated players, I agree they are almost impossible.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

This is 100% the argument for exploring Santander trades, whether you think we need him this season or not. 

Of course. He’s probably THE guy that trading was more of a must than anyone. A player who, before 2022, had issues with availability and getting on base, who is now set to make 20ishM the next few years and you have in house replacements for him.

His value will never be higher than it is right now and it could significantly drop if he goes back to being injury prone. 

[sportsfan8703]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lots of overrating of our guys going on here.

All I will agree with is that you don’t trade guys just to trade them.

But I guarantee you that if they keep holding onto guys, you will see values of players drop. Some may also rise but overall, values are more likely to drop and when they do, you won’t be getting the assets for them that you can now.

Its inevitable.

I understand your overall point, but I don’t see any players value dropping out of Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, and Norby, unless there is an injury. They all had some success in AAA last year, and they will be repeating that level. Hall, Kjerstad, and Mayo, are all a bit more risky, but also a chance to boom as well. 
 

I’m not saying we hold onto all of them.  I’m saying that we should wait till the deadline. I like our chances with the values going up. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I understand your overall point, but I don’t see any players value dropping out of Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, and Norby, unless there is an injury. They all had some success in AAA last year, and they will be repeating that level. Hall, Kjerstad, and Mayo, are all a bit more risky, but also a chance to boom as well. 
 

I’m not saying we hold onto all of them.  I’m saying that we should wait till the deadline. I like our chances with the values going up. 

Well first of all, I am talking about more about the ML players losing value.

That said, not all of those prospects will develop. Or some will have injuries. Or some will be exposed.  It’s inevitable.

The only thing LTO is right about is that teams aren’t tanking and you aren’t going to see as many prospect for established ML trades..which is fine. I would rather trade the MLers anyway. The prospect for established guys trades will occur at the deadline.

Right now, I would rather thin some areas out while improving the pitching staff.

[HakunaSakata]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Of course. He’s probably THE guy that trading was more of a must than anyone. A player who, before 2022, had issues with availability and getting on base, who is now set to make 20ishM the next few years and you have in house replacements for him.

His value will never be higher than it is right now and it could significantly drop if he goes back to being injury prone.