ESPN Top 100

[Sports Guy]

Atkins is to MacPhail as Frazier is to Elias.

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He has not proven that he can take that core talent, augment it with top tier outside talent through trades or FA signings, and make it a World Series contender. 

I haven't said that he has. But I don't hold unrealistic expectations that aren't reflective of reality. I don't understand why you, SG and others are under the impression that there is top tier outside talent out there that is reasonably acquirable right now. It's been said like a billion times by a billion people that the trade market is pretty much dead unless you are willing to swap top tier talent with another contender. If you don't believe those words, you can look at the trades that have happened it's obvious why the O's had to settle for someone like Irvin. The A's and Royals have traded ML players for prospects. Pretty much everyone else has traded big league pieces for big league pieces. When that changes and Elias either doesn't make a trade or makes a bad one, we can judge. It's irrelevant at the moment. And obviously the FA issue is self explanatory. 

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Does this make Elias dumb? No, it makes this decision dumb. I view Elias holistically and I'll cheer the good things he does, but will call out the head scratchers, and not try and make ridiculous excuses for them. 

Westburg is ready for the major leagues. He needs major league time to make adjustments that he can only make at the major league level. He's going to play at 24-years old this coming year. 

This is my problem with you and SG. The hyperbole and whining is just annoying. You may not think Frazier is anything but an average player. That's fine. Can't even say I disagree with you all that much. But the move isn't anywhere near as bad as you make it out to be. You have just convinced yourself, unrealistically, that there is NO chance that Frazier is a better player in 2023 than Jordan Westburg, especially initially. Creating vet depth to guard against potential regression/negative value from the two waiver claims and the young prospects isn't dumb. It's what teams on the margins do when they can't just go out and get a Swanson or Correa or Turner. Westburg will be up and given plenty of playing time given that he's already played 90+ games in AAA. It's not "dumb" to not just hand him the starting 2B spot for a full season before he has seen a pitch in the big leagues. This team is trying to make the playoffs this year and has made strides to reduce risk and avoid negative value. As I said before, these things will work themselves out for a multitude of reasons. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I haven't said that he has. But I don't hold unrealistic expectations that aren't reflective of reality. I don't understand why you, SG and others are under the impression that there is top tier outside talent out there that is reasonably acquirable right now. It's been said like a billion times by a billion people that the trade market is pretty much dead unless you are willing to swap top tier talent with another contender. If you don't believe those words, you can look at the trades that have happened it's obvious why the O's had to settle for someone like Irvin. The A's and Royals have traded ML players for prospects. Pretty much everyone else has traded big league pieces for big league pieces. When that changes and Elias either doesn't make a trade or makes a bad one, we can judge. It's irrelevant at the moment. And obviously the FA issue is self explanatory. 

This is my problem with you and SG. The hyperbole and whining is just annoying. You may not think Frazier is anything but an average player. That's fine. Can't even say I disagree with you all that much. But the move isn't anywhere near as bad as you make it out to be. You have just convinced yourself, unrealistically, that there is NO chance that Frazier is a better player in 2023 than Jordan Westburg, especially initially. Creating vet depth to guard against potential regression/negative value from the two waiver claims and the young prospects isn't dumb. It's what teams on the margins do when they can't just go out and get a Swanson or Correa or Turner. Westburg will be up and given plenty of playing time given that he's already played 90+ games in AAA. It's not "dumb" to not just hand him the starting 2B spot for a full season before he has seen a pitch in the big leagues. This team is trying to make the playoffs this year and has made strides to reduce risk and avoid negative value. As I said before, these things will work themselves out for a multitude of reasons. 

Funny, what annoys me about you is your awful evaluation of this trade and tour constant ass missing of Elias to justify it. 
 

Oh well, guess we will both be annoyed.  

[TopGunnar]

I think Povich is an up and comer that is flying under the radar. If he becomes a starting pitcher for the Orioles it means we robbed the Twins. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

6 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

I think Povich is an up and comer that is flying under the radar. If he becomes a starting pitcher for the Orioles it means we robbed the Twins. 

Whoops, sorry dude, too late to talk about Povich. We're on to Page 5, the official Adam Frazier breaking point for every thread on this forum

[joelala]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

In regards to Law and Cowser, I believe someone posted it the other day but here's why:

 

Yea I read that in the original article but still think it’s a bit wild to drop a player 50 spots in one year when that player clearly made adjustments at two different levels and reached a third level. I guess I’ve never really cared about Law before, but his rankings this year were the closest evidence I’ve seen of a bias against us, implicit or otherwise. 

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

Whoops, sorry dude, too late to talk about Povich. We're on to Page 5, the official Adam Frazier breaking point for every thread on this forum

True.  But to be fair, Frazier and the various prospects are directly related.  And it makes sense to bring it up.  But we know the various points all around too. 

Hopefully, as a forum, we have the pitch recognition of Adley to lay of the low/away slider and can let it go!

[SteveA]

5 hours ago, Orioles0615 said:

I don't know if I should be angry or happy about this. I wonder when we had Gasuman if anyone ever thought one day one of the best pitching prospects in baseball would be his comp.  

Gausman was picked at 1-4, he was one of the best pitching prospectsi n baseball.

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, joelala said:

Yea I read that in the original article but still think it’s a bit wild to drop a player 50 spots in one year when that player clearly made adjustments at two different levels and reached a third level. I guess I’ve never really cared about Law before, but his rankings this year were the closest evidence I’ve seen of a bias against us, implicit or otherwise. 

I'd love to hear Law's explanation about Brennan Davis at #50.  He missed the bulk of time in 2022 with back surgery.  Then after he was back in form, he went to the AFL and left with back soreness.  I think he's every bit as good as Cowser and with similar approaches at the plate (near 30% K% and high BB%).  But their 2022 seasons couldn't have been more different.  

[Pickles]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Atkins is to MacPhail as Frazier is to Elias.

It's definitely the least favorite of his moves so far imo.

However, I'd be willing to bet it works out a hell of a lot better than the Atkins move.

[ThisIsBirdland]

I assume Law and McDaniel are much more individually responsible for their rankings than the BA/MLB Pipeline/Prospectus rankings, and as such their rankings are far more tied to their own interpretation as opposed to part of a group process? I don't know that that means too much; all of this is subjective and speculative. But I would assume that's how you see variability like Cowser somehow out of Law's list but Povich in McDaniel's list.

[LTO's]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I'd love to hear Law's explanation about Brennan Davis at #50.  He missed the bulk of time in 2022 with back surgery.  Then after he was back in form, he went to the AFL and left with back soreness.  I think he's every bit as good as Cowser and with similar approaches at the plate (near 30% K% and high BB%).  But their 2022 seasons couldn't have been more different.  

Davis’ year was a washout, as he had a stress reaction in his back, underwent surgery early in the year, and wasn’t quite the same when he returned ahead of schedule; he had to leave a scheduled stint in the AFL earlier than planned. When on the field, Davis hit .192/.322/.319 in 43 games in Triple A, although he did swing it better in the fall league, going 5-for-18 with a pair of homers and just one strikeout. He’s an excellent athlete who starred in basketball in high school, and while he’d always shown a solid eye at the plate, his power projection started to come through in 2021, with a good, balanced swing that lets him drive the ball to all fields. He’s played center but has lost some speed as he’s filled out, and might end up in right instead. It all depends on the health of his back, though, as stress reactions can be a harbinger of more chronic problems.

He had him as a top 30 prospect in 2021 so I think this is just a case of him not really budging off his initial eval. However, Cowser was on his list last year too and dropped off completely. 

[SteveA]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

All I know is, the O’s were willing to part with Mancini to get him, and they were aware of the pending TJ surgery.   I’m hoping he’ll be able to get a few starts in this August/September, just so he’s not completely starting from scratch in 2024.   But, it’s no better than 50/50 that he’ll meet that timetable.   Unless I’m mistaken, he has to be on the 40-man roster next offseason, so I assume he’ll be fast-tracked in 2024 regardless of whether he pitches in 2023.

Yeah, I'm not holding my breath waiting for Elias to fast-track a player.   Next time he does that will be the first.

[Sports Guy]

55 minutes ago, Pickles said:

It's definitely the least favorite of his moves so far imo.

However, I'd be willing to bet it works out a hell of a lot better than the Atkins move.

I would agree there. The defense alone should make it better.  But I don’t think Atkins blocked anyone, so that could make this worse.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I would agree there. The defense alone should make it better.  But I don’t think Atkins blocked anyone, so that could make this worse.

Well, you could argue that Atkins was an upside flier in a season with nothing to lose so maybe it was better?

Regardless, the only thing left to do now is see how Frazier performs.