Pecota has the Orioles with only a 3% chance to make the playoffs

[spiritof66]

When I was growing up near Philadelphia, the baseball magazines' previews of the season were the only way to find out about where players who had moved other than in big trades (or guys traded or acquired by the Phillies) had landed. Each of several kids in my neighborhood bought and then traded the national magazines with their pre-season predictions -- Street and Smith was the most extensive, but there were also Sport Magazine, Complete Baseball, Inside Baseball, the Sporting News, Baseball Digest, in later years SI, and probably others I've forgotten. Right before the season, at least two and I think all three of the daily papers had a long section with, as I recall, predictions from several writers. We read some of this stuff at the drug store before we got chased out. You couldn't find any of it in the public library.

It seems like they all picked the NYYs and either the Dodgers or Giants to finish first every year, and it was shocking when someone else like the White Sox, Pirates or Reds broke through. We always knew where to find the Phillies -- at the back of the magazine or end of the pre-season section.

[Just Regular]

They featured write-ups on its projections for some prospects this morning:

Gunnar Henderson, 3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles
2023 Projection: 107 DRC+, .239/.328/.394, 1.9 WARP in 550 PA

I suspect if Henderson put this line up that it would be considered a significant disappointment. PECOTA is basically projecting him to be a league-average third baseman this year. An algorithm at this level is going to struggle with the types of discrete profile improvements Henderson made in 2022. Oftentimes, those types of swing decision and contact improvements are illusory in smaller samples, but we’re pretty convinced in Henderson’s case they’re real. If his average is just slightly higher than PECOTA shows, all of a sudden we’re talking about a very healthy OBP and above-average power output.

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
2023 Projection: 85 DRA-, 1.6 WARP in 93 IP

Our depth charts team has been conservative with innings projections for Rodriguez, who is likely to open the season in Baltimore but only through 75 ⅔ innings last year. Nevertheless, PECOTA sees him as a number 2 starter on a contender this year; the other starting pitchers with an 85 DRA- projection are Shane Bieber, Blake Snell, Cristian Javier, and Andrew Heaney.

[tntoriole]

On 2/14/2023 at 2:30 PM, Frobby said:

Eh, they’re just entertainment.  And they’re good for getting a chip on your shoulder.  

When I was a kid, there were about 5-6 magazines that would come out with their predicted standings in the spring.  No math or science behind it, just some writer’s wild-ass guess.  But they were fun to read.  And probably not much more inaccurate than Pecota, ZiPS, etc.  
 

Exactly… the veneer of PECOTA is that it is an acronym …  Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm

oooh.. science!! 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

They featured write-ups on its projections for some prospects this morning:

Gunnar Henderson, 3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles
2023 Projection: 107 DRC+, .239/.328/.394, 1.9 WARP in 550 PA

I suspect if Henderson put this line up that it would be considered a significant disappointment. PECOTA is basically projecting him to be a league-average third baseman this year. An algorithm at this level is going to struggle with the types of discrete profile improvements Henderson made in 2022. Oftentimes, those types of swing decision and contact improvements are illusory in smaller samples, but we’re pretty convinced in Henderson’s case they’re real. If his average is just slightly higher than PECOTA shows, all of a sudden we’re talking about a very healthy OBP and above-average power output.

Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
2023 Projection: 85 DRA-, 1.6 WARP in 93 IP

Our depth charts team has been conservative with innings projections for Rodriguez, who is likely to open the season in Baltimore but only through 75 ⅔ innings last year. Nevertheless, PECOTA sees him as a number 2 starter on a contender this year; the other starting pitchers with an 85 DRA- projection are Shane Bieber, Blake Snell, Cristian Javier, and Andrew Heaney.

Maybe their projections would look better if they knew the difference between “through” and “threw” lol.. statistics? yes? English? Not so much lol 

[eddie83]

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

 

Good for him to come out and say it.  

[Oriole1940]

These people are like the National Enquirer, you know you are wasting your time reading it, but sometimes you catch yourself reading it anyway.