Are the Orioles a legitimate playoff contender (Going into Spring training)?

[Tony-OH]

We seen the ZPS and the Fangraphs odds for the Orioles making the playoff and they go from questionable to doubtful. 

So here's a simple question, going into spring training right now, are the Orioles legitimate playoff contenders this season.

Now I'm personally defining whether a team is a playoff contender or not as whether the team has a legitimate (40% or higher) chance of making the playoffs come September 1st.

So did Elias do enough to make you think this team will be in playoff contention come September this year? 

[Mooreisbetter27]

I think they are.  And I choose to be positive about it and hold hope they'll be competitive the whole year through.  

However, I wouldn't be surprised if they took a small step back and were under 500 this year.

[Pickles]

I don't see how it can be argued they aren't.

They're better than they were last year, and they were legitimate contenders last year- at least by the metric used here.

Now, that doesn't mean that that will happen.  But as of right now, there's little to suggest it won't.

[crowmst3k!]

They will be in the hunt unless every starting pitcher regresses or gets injured. 

[jamalshw]

To be a legitimate playoff contender, you need to be just a bit over .500 given the extra playoff spot. Are they a legitimate World Series contender? Not really (though if you make it to the postseason and get really hot/lucky...but I digress). 

This team is a legitimate playoff contender because I can tell a non-farfetched scenario where they make the postseason. Of course, I could one where they barely eclipse 70 wins as well. In all likelihood, I expect them to miss October baseball again, but I do think they'll be in the hunt at least in early September.

[jabba72]

September 1st I think they'll still be in it, alot can happen in the final month. I think GRod, Means and Hall additions will bolster the pitching staff along with improvements from Kremer and Bradish, enough for them to be in the race on Sep 1st.

I didnt check the schedule but I've seen posted here the 2nd half is alot tougher opponent wise than the 1st half. So September could be rough. 

[ChuckS]

I'm optimistic, but I think the questionable side of things is fair. 

It would take a lot of injuries for us to be bad IMO, but not too many for us to become mediocre and out of the picture in September.  I like the SP depth even though we don't have anyone you can really point to other than GrayRod and potentially a returning a Means as a TOR guy.  There are seven guys on the projected OD roster who could be effective starters, and possibly eight once we add Means.  Good chance of finding an effective five out of those guys and the offense will be better. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by ChuckS

[Ripken]

Right now, no.  NY, Toronto and Tampa look better to me in the east.  Houston and Seattle in the west are really good.  The Central isn't strong but Cleveland and Chicago are decent.  Some team will surprise - maybe Texas with that spending spree or Minnesota or Boston.  I think there will be improvement in some areas for us, which will be mitigated by some regression.  The offseason veteran additions represent very minimal gains.  I do believe a trade or two mid season (ish) could make this team dangerous, to say nothing of potential upgrades from Norfolk.

Edited February 17, 2023 by Ripken

[Can_of_corn]

I think they look like a .500 club.  Does that make them legitimate contenders?

The 2013 team was better than the 2012 team and yet lost more games.

 

[MurphDogg]

I am saying yes, but I am giving them the benefit of the doubt on the low payroll that if they are in it in July, they will make trades that meaningfully raise the payroll (probably for starting pitching, possibly another bat).

The core is good, there aren't any real holes and pretty much everyone is on the correct side of the aging curve.

[oriole]

I’m on the fence but for the sake of optimism, I voted yes. Full year of Rutschman and Henderson, hopeful for solid performances from guys like Rodriguez, Mullins, Santander, and Mountcastle, and then there’s the incremental upgrades in backup catcher, “front end” of the rotation and 2B. I do expect some regression from the bullpen but, at this time, I am hopeful that the newer players make up for it. 
 

I really could see this team winning anywhere from 70-90 games and wouldn’t be shocked one way or the other. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

I am saying yes, but I am giving them the benefit of the doubt on the low payroll that if they are in it in July, they will make trades that meaningfully raise the payroll (probably for starting pitching, possibly another bat).

The core is good, there aren't any real holes and pretty much everyone is on the correct side of the aging curve.

Except Adley he's clearly over the hill.

[Pickles]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Except Adley he's clearly over the hill.

Well his days of catching 162 games a year are probably behind him.

[Hank Scorpio]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Except Adley he's clearly over the hill.

Should have called him up his sophomore year, probably.

[Ripken]

6 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Should have called him up his sophomore year, probably.

Why do you always want to hold back prospects?