Can Mateo and Mullins combine for 100 steals.

[Number5]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You know what I love?  When hitters let pitches they can drive go by to give the runner a "chance to steal". 

Actually, I would think that it's more common for the batter to swing at a bad pitch with less than 2 strikes when the runner is attempting to steaI.  Theory being, the swing might possibly disrupt the catcher's concentration, I suppose, or that the infielders may have moved out of position, should you hit the ball.  All I know is we were coached to swing in that situation, not take.  It's been 50 years, though, so coaches may think differently now.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Actually, I would think that it's more common for the batter to swing at a bad pitch with less than 2 strikes when the runner is attempting to steaI.  Theory being, the swing might possibly disrupt the catcher's concentration, I suppose, or that the infielders may have moved out of position, should you hit the ball.  All I know is we were coached to swing in that situation, not take.  It's been 50 years, though, so coaches may think differently now.  

I've heard of both occurring and they are both sub-optimal.

[Jammer7]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You must have missed a certain poster talking about all the HR he gave up on the road.

I don’t get on here much. Every thread ends up being the same garbage. Everything is stupid, etc…

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

[Going Underground]

14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've heard of both occurring and they are both sub-optimal.

Isn't sub-optimal the second album from the band Stax from Germany?

[DrungoHazewood]

On 2/22/2023 at 8:00 PM, Jagwar said:

Meh... I think it cheapens the stat. How many bases would Ricky Henderson or Lou Brock have stolen under the new rules?

I always wondered (well, very occasionally) what Henderson or Brock would have stolen under the rules prior to 1898, where things like going first-to-third on a single were counted as a steal. Under those rules Sliding Billy Hamilton stole over 100 bases four times, never in more than 137 games.

I also wonder how often players prior to, say, 1990 would have stolen bases had they known that anything less than a 75% success rate in most situations was taking runs off the board.  Babe Ruth had 123 steals and 116 caught, including that famous one that ended the 1926 Series. Today someone would tell him to cut it out.

[DrungoHazewood]

19 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You know what I love?  When hitters let pitches they can drive go by to give the runner a "chance to steal". 

From page 326 of The Book: The disruptive runner has an enormously negative influence on the batter, enough to almost completely offset the disruption caused to the defense.

[jamalshw]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

From page 326 of The Book: The disruptive runner has an enormously negative influence on the batter, enough to almost completely offset the disruption caused to the defense.

So you are saying it's still a slight (very, very slight) edge on the disruption to the pitcher/defense. But, even if it is a net neutral on the "disruption" not more of a disruption to the batter than to the defense he's playing/hitting against. 

It then comes down to a the specific batter as I'm sure some would be more impacted than others.  

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

So you are saying it's still a slight (very, very slight) edge on the disruption to the pitcher/defense. But, even if it is a net neutral on the "disruption" not more of a disruption to the batter than to the defense he's playing/hitting against. 

It then comes down to a the specific batter as I'm sure some would be more impacted than others.  

Right, and you're expending a lot of energy to do it.

[jamalshw]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right, and you're expending a lot of energy to do it.

If you're just standing over there dancing around, sure, it's a waste of energy. But the whole point of the thread is stealing. That's the other element. So if there is a net neutral on the "disruption" factor, you still end up with the net benefit of the steal--provided the runner has a good success rate. So I still want the likes of Mullins and Mateo trying to steal where possible. 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

If you're just standing over there dancing around, sure, it's a waste of energy. But the whole point of the thread is stealing. That's the other element. So if there is a net neutral on the "disruption" factor, you still end up with the net benefit of the steal--provided the runner has a good success rate. So I still want the likes of Mullins and Mateo trying to steal where possible. 

And I think the cumulative wear on the players makes it a poor bargain in a lot of cases.  

[interloper]

The answer is definitely no. I'm more interested in Mateo being a better hitter. I wish it was as easy as "don't worry I've been working on it this off-season". I'm sure he has and good for him, but...

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, interloper said:

The answer is definitely no. I'm more interested in Mateo being a better hitter. I wish it was as easy as "don't worry I've been working on it this off-season". I'm sure he has and good for him, but...

Well, the only way they’re going to steal 100 is if Mateo gets on base way more often in 2023.   He had roughly double the steals per opportunity as Mullins did last year, but only half the opportunities because he wasn’t on base much. 

[DrungoHazewood]

43 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And I think the cumulative wear on the players makes it a poor bargain in a lot of cases.  

I think Rickey would still be active if he'd just cut back on all that running.

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, the only way they’re going to steal 100 is if Mateo gets on base way more often in 2023.   He had roughly double the steals per opportunity as Mullins did last year, but only half the opportunities because he wasn’t on base much. 

Here's a list of all time single-season leaders in steals, OBP .300 or lower, since the 1898 stolen base redefinition. Vince Coleman once had 107 steals in a season with a .301 OBP.

Note that Mateo is the only player in that timeframe to have at least 30 steals and an OBP as low as his was last year (.267).

Edited February 24, 2023 by DrungoHazewood