Can Mateo and Mullins combine for 100 steals.

[Just Regular]

54 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Here's a list of all time single-season leaders in steals, OBP .300 or lower, since the 1898 stolen base redefinition. Vince Coleman once had 107 steals in a season with a .301 OBP.

Note that Mateo is the only player in that timeframe to have at least 30 steals and an OBP as low as his was last year (.267).

107-60 is quite the drop for that last .001 of OBP!    I feel like the Coleman season should still get the "title" on that filter, like how a batter can win the crown if the extra Outs to get them up to qualifying still leaves them ahead of the top guy with 502 PA or whatever it is now.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

107-60 is quite the drop for that last .001 of OBP!    I feel like the Coleman season should still get the "title" on that filter, like how a batter can win the crown if the extra Outs to get them up to qualifying still leaves them ahead of the top guy with 502 PA or whatever it is now.

In '86 Coleman had 139 hits, 60 walks, two HBP, and reached on eight errors. Eight triples and no homers. 13 doubles.  He also batted over 200 times with men on, and he only drove in 29 runs all year.

So he was only on base a little over 200 times, quite a few of those with other runners on, and he still stole 107 bases.  That's probably the record for steals as a percentage of possible steals, at least for a full-time player.  Compare that to Rickey, and the year he stole 130 he had a .398 OBP, and the other two years he was over 100 his OBP was over .400.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In '86 Coleman had 139 hits, 60 walks, two HBP, and reached on eight errors. Eight triples and no homers. 13 doubles.  He also batted over 200 times with men on, and he only drove in 29 runs all year.

So he was only on base a little over 200 times, quite a few of those with other runners on, and he still stole 107 bases.  That's probably the record for steals as a percentage of possible steals, at least for a full-time player.  Compare that to Rickey, and the year he stole 130 he had a .398 OBP, and the other two years he was over 100 his OBP was over .400.

Per BB-ref, Coleman had 107 SB in 196 stolen base opportunities (defined as plate appearances through which a runner was on first or second with the next base open”), for a 54.6% steal/opportunity rate.  He attempted a steal 121 times, for a 61.7% attempt/opportunity rate.  

In his big year, Henderson stole 130 bases in 225 opportunities, 57.8%.  He attempted a steal 172 times, or 76.4%.   

It is a little surprising that Henderson only had 225 opportunities that year.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Per BB-ref, Coleman had 107 SB in 196 stolen base opportunities (defined as plate appearances through which a runner was on first or second with the next base open”), for a 54.6% steal/opportunity rate.  He attempted a steal 121 times, for a 61.7% attempt/opportunity rate.  

In his big year, Henderson stole 130 bases in 225 opportunities, 57.8%.  He attempted a steal 172 times, or 76.4%.   

It is a little surprising that Henderson only had 225 opportunities that year.

 

Thanks, I'd forgotten they list stolen base opportunities under Advanced,Stats, Baserunning and Misc.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think Rickey would still be active if he'd just cut back on all that running.

We should always compare everyone to extreme outliers.

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

We should always compare everyone to extreme outliers.

 

I often get compared to Einstein.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I often get compared to Einstein.  

The bagel guy?

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The bagel guy?

I’d probably be happy if my bank account were comparable.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The bagel guy?

Super Dave aka Bob Einstein

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by RZNJ

[Number5]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I often get compared to Einstein.  

You have hair like Larry Fein?

[Frobby]

On 2/22/2023 at 5:05 PM, Frobby said:

I think the first question is whether Mateo will get 500+ PA like he did last year, or will he lose playing time to better hitters?   And if he does play, will he get on base more often than last year?  

In any event, I’m going to guess that we will not see a 50% spike in SB from these two, or generally around the league.  Probably more like 20-30%.   But we’ll see.
 

The way things are going, I may need to rethink this.  Steals always tend to be more prevalent in the early part of the season, but right now Mullins and Mateo are on pace for 162 steals.  And, the best part is that Mateo is getting on base far more often than he did last year.  Of course, this is all still SSS.  More than half the Mullins/Mateo steals to date came in the first two games against a Boston team that apoeared totally inept at stopping the running game.  

[Just Regular]

Its just two weeks but I'm starting to watch Jorge Mateo day to day a little bit like the Too Good to be True Gunnar Henderson opening to 2022.    

The offseason is I believe when many of the more substantial gains in Player Development are attainable.

Savant sees him 7th among SS in xwOBA so far, plus he's adding value with his legs.    OAA also has him above average in the early going.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2023&position=6&team=&min=q

[sportsfan8703]

I’ll take the over 100.  If Holliday mows through the minors we could have our own version of Vizquel - Lofton - Alomar Jr. with Mateo - Mullins - Holliday

[Big Al]

On 2/22/2023 at 7:39 PM, Big Al said:

I predict in the next five years, someone will steal 100 in a season.

And unless someone beats him to it, it will be Enrique Bradfield. 

[baltfan]

2 minutes ago, Big Al said:

And unless someone beats him to it, it will be Enrique Bradfield. 

Maybe Etzel. He has 8 already and has barely played any games.