Grayson Rodriguez 2023

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's are paying the price on defense for having a 5 run offense.    Hicks and Frazier hit better than  players that would give the team a better defense.

IMO Hicks is fine for the corners, but doesn’t have the speed anymore to play CF. His arm is significantly better than Mullins though. Frazier IMO is a poor defensive player and O’Hearn is not much better. 

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you want a slick fielding 1B  or do you want O'Hearn with a 894 OPS vs righties?   And don't say both because the O's don't have that guy.  The O's have decided they want the guy with the bat.

That’s a good question. We appear to have made the choice to live with O’Hearn’s defensive inadequacies because of what he gives us offensively. I just don’t like him next to Frazier. That’s a really poorish right side of the infield.

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's are paying the price on defense for having a 5 run offense.    Hicks and Frazier hit better than  players that would give the team a better defense.

Not sure how I feel about O’Hearn.  Not a big fan of Mountcastles defense either.  I will say that Frazier looks to be close to a liability at 2B due to lack of range and arm strength.   

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Do you want a slick fielding 1B  or do you want O'Hearn with a 894 OPS vs righties?   And don't say both because the O's don't have that guy.  The O's have decided they want the guy with the bat.

Did I say I don’t want him playing?   I’m just commenting on his defense, the same way I might comment on anyone else’s defense.  

At the same time, I’m wondering if his .894 OPS vs. RHP (or something in that neighborhood) will hold up.   His career OPS vs. RHP is .742.   It may be that the O’s unlocked something in him this year, or it could just be a small sample size result that will regress significantly.  He has a .653 OPS over his last 20 games, so it could be that regression has already started.   I’m not saying it has, but it’s something to keep an eye on.   
 

[deward]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Did I say I don’t want him playing?   I’m just commenting on his defense, the same way I might comment on anyone else’s defense.  

At the same time, I’m wondering if his .894 OPS vs. RHP (or something in that neighborhood) will hold up.   His career OPS vs. RHP is .742.   It may be that the O’s unlocked something in him this year, or it could just be a small sample size result that will regress significantly.  He has a .653 OPS over his last 20 games, so it could be that regression has already started.   I’m not saying it has, but it’s something to keep an eye on.   
 

My big concern with O'Hearn and Hicks has always been that their hot streaks would earn them more rope than the last three years would indicate that they deserve. I'm hoping the fact that Cowser is on the team is a sign that Elias is trying to prepare for a scenario where the clock has struck midnight for those two.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, deward said:

My big concern with O'Hearn and Hicks has always been that their hot streaks would earn them more rope than the last three years would indicate that they deserve. I'm hoping the fact that Cowser is on the team is a sign that Elias is trying to prepare for a scenario where the clock has struck midnight for those two.

I agree with you that this bears close watching.  These guys were hot at the right time.  But if/when it’s clear that the joyride is over, Hyde needs to be ready to adjust.   Of course, we need there to be a better alternative.  It would be nice if Mountcastle and Cowser started producing.  

[ChosenOne21]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He has a .653 OPS over his last 20 games, so it could be that regression has already started.   I’m not saying it has, but it’s something to keep an eye on.   
 

And a .749 over his last 15. And an .840 over his last 30. And .866 for the season.

Honestly, before the last two games, his last 7 games were pretty great.

I just don't see strong evidence that regression is starting. He's played for such a short time that all the good weeks and bad weeks that all MLB players have just get magnified. Guy only has like two full season's worth of at-bats for his entire career, yet with a lot of posters (not necessarily you) a .600-.700 OPS is his destiny.

Edited July 18, 2023 by ChosenOne21

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, deward said:

My big concern with O'Hearn and Hicks has always been that their hot streaks would earn them more rope than the last three years would indicate that they deserve. I'm hoping the fact that Cowser is on the team is a sign that Elias is trying to prepare for a scenario where the clock has struck midnight for those two.

Cowser is on the team and getting regular ABs though. O’Hearn is not taking away ABs from Cowser. I guess we will have to see how it shakes out as far as Hicks goes when Mullins comes back. Hopefully Cowser will make some adjustments and start hitting. If given the choice I would rather have Hicks in CF than Cowser.

[deward]

47 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

And a .749 over his last 15. And an .840 over his last 30. And .866 for the season.

Honestly, before the last two games, his last 7 games were pretty great.

I just don't see strong evidence that regression is starting. He's played for such a short time that all the good weeks and bad weeks that all MLB players have just get magnified. Guy only has like two full season's worth of at-bats for his entire career, yet with a lot of posters (not necessarily you) a .600-.700 OPS is his destiny.

The list of guys who struggled for over 1,000 PAs and then suddenly figured it out at age 29 is pretty small. Not saying O'Hearn can't buck the trend, but it's a lot to be counting on.

[deward]

44 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Cowser is on the team and getting regular ABs though. O’Hearn is not taking away ABs from Cowser. I guess we will have to see how it shakes out as far as Hicks goes when Mullins comes back. Hopefully Cowser will make some adjustments and start hitting. If given the choice I would rather have Hicks in CF than Cowser.

Getting Cowser worked in is protection against Hicks regressing; Mounty is plan B for O'Hearn. If Mounty doesn't hit either, then it's Kjerstad (but probably not until Cowser finds his timing).

[ChosenOne21]

1 minute ago, deward said:

The list of guys who struggled for over 1,000 PAs and then suddenly figured it out at age 29 is pretty small. Not saying O'Hearn can't buck the trend, but it's a lot to be counting on.

Sure, and of course I could be wrong about him. But I think he has a couple of things going for him that some of those other guys don't, namely that he was one of those hitters disproportionately affected by the shift, and that the Orioles seem to have made an adjustment that has helped him as well. That, and if he is used strictly in a platoon capacity (especially avoiding LH relievers) there's reason to think he can be a productive major leaguer for a few years. I'm not saying he's a true talent .860 OPS first baseman, but it wouldn't surprise me if his true talent was .790-ish.

[SteveA]

So Grayson's first 9 four seam fastballs were all 98.9 MPH or faster, with 4 of them over 100 MPH.

The remaining 33 four seam fastballs failed to reach 98.9 MPH.   One was 98.8, but most of the rest were at least half a mile slower.  Quite a few were in the 96/97 range.

So of 42 fastballs, the first 9 in the first inning were the 9 fastest of the night.

Is that an indication he was airing out a little too much to start the game.   I get adrenaline and all, but I have watched guys like Justin Verlander pitch a little more restrained initially and then at a key moment later in the game they suddenly are able to reach back and get that little extra.   

I know part of the reason GRod appeared to run out of gas was the fact that he hasn't pitched a lot of innings lately.   But could it also be because he started out a little too strong?   Burned brighter briefly but faded sooner in the end?

[Billy F-Face3]

37 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Is that an indication he was airing out a little too much to start the game.   I get adrenaline and all, but I have watched guys like Justin Verlander pitch a little more restrained initially and then at a key moment later in the game they suddenly are able to reach back and get that little extra.  

I was thinking about the same thing. It's one of the things that impressed me about a couple of Dean Kremer's best games this season. Late in the game he was able to reach back and pull out a strike 3 97 MPH fast ball that I didn't know Kremer could throw. But he managed to do it at the right time.

[Can_of_corn]

43 minutes ago, SteveA said:

So Grayson's first 9 four seam fastballs were all 98.9 MPH or faster, with 4 of them over 100 MPH.

The remaining 33 four seam fastballs failed to reach 98.9 MPH.   One was 98.8, but most of the rest were at least half a mile slower.  Quite a few were in the 96/97 range.

So of 42 fastballs, the first 9 in the first inning were the 9 fastest of the night.

Is that an indication he was airing out a little too much to start the game.   I get adrenaline and all, but I have watched guys like Justin Verlander pitch a little more restrained initially and then at a key moment later in the game they suddenly are able to reach back and get that little extra.   

I know part of the reason GRod appeared to run out of gas was the fact that he hasn't pitched a lot of innings lately.   But could it also be because he started out a little too strong?   Burned brighter briefly but faded sooner in the end?

It might be because the O's never gave him a chance to pitch late into games.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

3 hours ago, deward said:

The list of guys who struggled for over 1,000 PAs and then suddenly figured it out at age 29 is pretty small. Not saying O'Hearn can't buck the trend, but it's a lot to be counting on.

I agree, although O’Hearn certainly benefited from the shift ban this season. His xwOBA were consistently much higher than his wOBA over 2019-2022. He was actually at .327 last season and is .350 this year. 

O’Hearn also hasn’t made any gaudy jumps in plate discipline or max EV either - he’s performed much better via an extremely high rate of hard contact. That may not be sustainable, but it’s an easier narrative to buy coming from some swing adjustments.