Rosenthal: Overloaded with star prospects, Orioles need to determine how to escalate the team’s rise

[Sports Guy]

Again Lopez was dealt with multiple years of control.

[wildcard]

44 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Bradish had a good half year, which is surely promising. Povich, McDermott and Johnson seem more like projects with some promise. 

I admit "prime" is somewhat subjective. I'll suggest prime pitching prospects would be expected to be at least a #3 starter on any ML team, pitchers that would be top 10 prospects in any system, pitchers that would make us as giddy as we feel about our top position prospects. 

O's are not as pitching poor as many would like us to believe.

GRod is on the way to being an ace.  He has the pitches, size and poise to develop into one over the next two years. 6 years of control.

Bradish has the arm, pitches and composure to be a TOR starter.  We watched it in the 2nd half and he showed up to camp ready to prove it. 6 years of control.

Wells had the 1st half in 2022 of a developing quality starter.   He is 6' 8" and coming at the hitter down hill.  Then he went home and work 15-20 pound off to increase his stamina.   4 years of control.

Kremer had the best season on any young starter the rotation last season.  People want to say is will regress but he does not believe it.   3.23 ERA is something to take notice of.  5 years of control.

Hall has the pitches and just needs the control.  Give that kind on talent to Holt and his coaches and I like the odds they will turn him into a quality starter.  Possible 6+ years of control if he is not call up until late May.

Means was an All Star before TJ surgery.  He will be back in the 2nd half.   John is a bull dog.   Don't count him out.   2 years of control. And with a new arm the kind of guy Elias might extend.

Irvin - No  comment until I see how he does on the road.  4 years of control.

Seth Johnson was a Rays top 10 prospect before  TJ surgery.   Povich has the pitches, control and  poise to be a top O's prospect before the year is out.

Edited March 2, 2023 by wildcard

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 I think what Elias’ history has been during the rebuilding phase may not tell us much about what he’ll do now that the team is in a different situation.  If we have a surplus in a spot that can be traded to acquire players in areas where we are short, I think Elias will move if he likes the deal even if the players traded have some years of control remaining.  

I think this is spot on with the caveat that ME is still likely in evaluation mode. Many want to dump Mateo because of his bat and replace him with Ortiz or Gunnnar and put Urias at 3B. Is Mateo's 2 month heater (OPS .888) less relevant than Ortiz's 3 month heater in AA-AAA (1.000 OPS)? Can Urias hold up for more than 400 ABs and will his bat rebound? Is Norby's bat real, does he have a defensive position? Can Vavra hit enough to stick as a Util IF-COF? Is Westburg athletic enough to move to COF? Is Stowers a keeper RF, or 1B or DH? Can Cowser handle CF? Will Kjerstad come back and is he good enough for RF. Is Mayo's bat so special you have to find a position for him? Then there are Beavers, Fabian, etc? IS Jackson more valuable at SS or CF? ME isn't gonna trade anyone until he has made up his mind what their outcome will be. Hopefully by mid-year we will see the result of that deliberation.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

And I'm replying because you always mention him without fail. I don't think Elias can do no wrong but if this is the best example of him being wrong I think we're in great shape. He basically had a fluke year's worth of games of being really good and outside of that, he's been about as good as Austin Hays who most think should be traded immediately. 

I don’t blame Elias one bit for trading Yaz, based on his track record at the time.  However, I don’t want to minimize what Yaz has done, either.  He’s been worth 9.5 rWAR in 4 seasons, one of which was the Covid-shortened season so he’d probably be a bit higher than that if the full 2020 season had been played.  I do think Hays will have the better career due to getting to the majors at a younger age.  

[btdart20]

57 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

Bradish had a good half year, which is surely promising. Povich, McDermott and Johnson seem more like projects with some promise. 

I admit "prime" is somewhat subjective. I'll suggest prime pitching prospects would be expected to be at least a #3 starter on any ML team, pitchers that would be top 10 prospects in any system, pitchers that would make us as giddy as we feel about our top position prospects. 

Based on your definition (at least a #3 starter/top 10 prospect in any system):  Povich is there now.  Johnson was there before TJ.  And if you want to expand it to 'not completely established players' then Bradish has shown a #3+ upside for a competitive team.  

[Bahama O's Fan]

I'm getting the feeling that there are no more trades (barring injuries) until the trade deadline mid-season. I think Elias wants to see how they all perform. Remember, he has no problem leaving players in the minors for longer than we think necessary. I think he especially needs to see if the starting pitching is going to work out or were some of those seasons last year just flukes. I mean, there is no one right now that you can say you really trust to go out and pitch 7 innings of top notch stuff and know they can do it consistently. 

[Aristotelian]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

How do you guys think the Orioles should handle the depth issue that is coming, if it’s not already here?

As this article mentions, the SS of the future is Holliday. It’s not Mateo, Henderson or even Ortiz. 

Henderson is the third baseman. Adley is the catcher.

I feel confident in those 3 positions being as close to certainties as you can have in pro sports, starting no later than 2025.

But what do you do beyond that?

You currently have 3 MiL options for second base in Westburg, Ortiz and Norby. You have all the OF depth.

You know Santander and Hays aren’t likely to be here over the long haul.

You have a decision to make about Mullins. How good do you feel he is 3+ years from now?

For me, I personally look to trade some of the vets.

I still feel that Mayo is the first baseman of the future although I wouldn’t rule out a COF spot.

As I felt this offseason, I don’t see the need to add any IF help, with the potential exception being first base (again depending on Mayo).

To me, Hays, Santander, Mullins, Urias and Mateo all need to be dealt sometime between today and 2 years from now.  I would also likely add Mountcastle to that group as well.

I think the best possible outcome for this team is to be able to trade a prospect here or there and all the vets to bring in high end starters and perhaps a high OFer.

Combine those guys with what we have and I think that’s our best case scenario.

How do you guys want to see it done?  These decisions are coming and they are coming very soon.

I don't panic-trade anybody but the weak link is starting pitching. All signs point toward trading some of these prospects in packages to get that big starter. Hard to say who to keep versus who to shop but I think that is the general strategy and the switch will be flipped soon. 

[Three Run Homer]

I admit that I have a bias towards prospects.  So my solution to the O's depth is to maximize the number of prospects that get a chance to show what they can do in Baltimore.  Aside from Adley and Gunnar I'd be fine with trading any position player who ended last season as a regular with the major league club.   Hays, Santander, Mountcastle, Mateo and Urias have all had their moments for the O's, but they are not difference-makers.  I'd rather trade them all sooner or later for pitching prospects or bullpen help, and see what Ortiz, Westburg, Cowser, Kjerstad and Norby can do.  All of them are likely to be ready by the end of this season and some of them are ready right now.    I would keep Mullins for now, only because I don't see a prospect ready to take his place.  

So I don't see a need to trade from our prospects just yet.  In a couple of years, when Holliday, Mayo, Fabian and Beavers are hopefully ready, we may have a glut that we need to resolve--or it may be that some of the prospects above will have proven themselves to be the new Hays or Mateo, and we'll be ready to move them out of the way.  

 

 

[yark14]

18 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I admit that I have a bias towards prospects.  So my solution to the O's depth is to maximize the number of prospects that get a chance to show what they can do in Baltimore.  Aside from Adley and Gunnar I'd be fine with trading any position player who ended last season as a regular with the major league club.   Hays, Santander, Mountcastle, Mateo and Urias have all had their moments for the O's, but they are not difference-makers.  I'd rather trade them all sooner or later for pitching prospects or bullpen help, and see what Ortiz, Westburg, Cowser, Kjerstad and Norby can do.  All of them are likely to be ready by the end of this season and some of them are ready right now.    I would keep Mullins for now, only because I don't see a prospect ready to take his place.  

So I don't see a need to trade from our prospects just yet.  In a couple of years, when Holliday, Mayo, Fabian and Beavers are hopefully ready, we may have a glut that we need to resolve--or it may be that some of the prospects above will have proven themselves to be the new Hays or Mateo, and we'll be ready to move them out of the way.  

 

 

100% agree, with one exception.  I think we've seen the ceiling of all the experienced players you've mentioned with exception to Mountcastle.  He hasn't hit it yet, and he stays until either he does or someone like Mayo or Stowers (if either move to first) pushes him out.

I like the idea of at each position having an established solid player and a good prospect right behind him knocking on the door.   We are in that situation right now in most positions.  As ol' Chuck Darwin said, survivle of the fittest.

[interloper]

I think a big goal this year should be to determine, by the all star break, which of the 2B/SS prospects is the real keeper. Westburg, Norby, or Ortiz. Likewise with the lefty outfielders: Stowers, Cowser, or Kjerstad. There's room for most of them, but I think you can trade one guy from each group and be totally fine. 

 

[interloper]

11 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I'll tell you how I would aim to escalate the team's rise... start adding pitchers to the organization.

IMO it's the Achilles heel of the farm system. We have positional prospects out the wazoo. But outside of GRod and Hall (and maybe Povich now), who do we have that is really a prime prospect? Elias needs to address this big time. 

Yep. And this is exactly why we traded Lopez and Mancini. It's hard to imagine the system without Seth Johnson and Povich from those trades. Those guys represent the next level right under Grayson and Hall. They bridge a huge gap to the slightly less palatable guys like Rom and Watson and Baumann. We could use a few more guys in that Johnson/Povich tier and I won't be surprised to see some more trades if we're in a similar position to last year.

Edited March 3, 2023 by interloper

[emmett16]

10 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Are any of those prime pitching prospects?

All of those guys have a very legitimate chance to be a solid MLB player regardless of arbitrary internetty people giving their opinions.  
 

I think there is more P talent in the org than most people realize.  
 

Of course they will make some moves (as they did last year) to add the the P talent. 
 

I applaud the FO for sticking to what they do well as opposed to trying to cover all bases. 
 

Have you ever played Settlers of Catan?  There are 5 resources and all are important.  You have a choice when you start the game where you want to develop  to earn those resources.  Do you try to cover all 5 even if the chance of rolling the specified number for those resources is low? Or do you stick with the resources that have the highest probability of hitting? 

 

In just about all things in life, the folks that stick with what they are good at have success while the folks that try to be good at everything often struggle.  
 

 

[emmett16]

31 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think a big goal this year should be to determine, by the all star break, which of the 2B/SS prospects is the real keeper. Westburg, Norby, or Ortiz. Likewise with the lefty outfielders: Stowers, Cowser, or Kjerstad. There's room for most of them, but I think you can trade one guy from each group and be totally fine. 

 

Injuries. 

[Jagwar]

5 hours ago, emmett16 said:

All of those guys have a very legitimate chance to be a solid MLB player regardless of arbitrary internetty people giving their opinions.  
 

I think there is more P talent in the org than most people realize.  
 

Of course they will make some moves (as they did last year) to add the the P talent. 
 

I applaud the FO for sticking to what they do well as opposed to trying to cover all bases. 
 

Have you ever played Settlers of Catan?  There are 5 resources and all are important.  You have a choice when you start the game where you want to develop  to earn those resources.  Do you try to cover all 5 even if the chance of rolling the specified number for those resources is low? Or do you stick with the resources that have the highest probability of hitting? 

 

In just about all things in life, the folks that stick with what they are good at have success while the folks that try to be good at everything often struggle.  
 

 

So... I suppose I'm an "arbitrary internetty people"? I've been called worse.  

Maybe I'm not clearly stating my position. I want to be as excited about the pitching prospects in the system as I am about the position prospects. I look at Gunnar, Holliday, Cowser, Westburg, Mayo, Kjerstad, Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Basallo... and totally see them as every day players. Then I look at the pitching in the system. Bradish, Kremer and Wells look promising but they haven't proven they can perform over a full season. Then you have GRod (slam dunk), then Hall (with command questions), then a few maybes in Povich, Johnson and McDermott. I just don't have the same sentiment towards the pitchers. 

So for me, the excitement over the position prospects is tempered by my arbitrary internetty opinion that more pitching needs to be injected into the system, via trade, international signing or draft. 

Edited March 3, 2023 by Jagwar

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

I admit that I have a bias towards prospects.  So my solution to the O's depth is to maximize the number of prospects that get a chance to show what they can do in Baltimore.  Aside from Adley and Gunnar I'd be fine with trading any position player who ended last season as a regular with the major league club.   Hays, Santander, Mountcastle, Mateo and Urias have all had their moments for the O's, but they are not difference-makers.  

 

I like prospects, too, but I think people tend to overrate their chances of success a lot of times.   Urias, Mateo and Mountcastle all debuted in 2020.   Know where they rank in rWAR among position players who debuted that year? 6th, 12th and 13th.  Hays ranks 16th among players who debuted in 2017, despite the fact that he was called up prematurely and was hurt a lot for a couple of years after that.  The odds that any four of our position player prospects (excluding Gunnar) will do as well or better are not as high as you think.