Adam Frazier 2023

[foxfield]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Talking about our record with regards to Frazier makes zero sense.

He has been worth half a win and that just doubled after last nights game, so it was even worse prior to the AS break. That’s pretty replaceable and yes, I think our record could be better but that’s not really the point.

I understand you have a poster of Frazier hanging on the ceiling of your bedroom but you don’t need to exaggerate who he is or what he has done.

The last paragraph is not necessary.  But the top part is wrong, even if we accept as fact what Frazier has been worth.

It is purely hypothetical to say that if Frazier had not been added the team would be better off.   It's possible, it is perhaps even likely, but it isn't a given and you state that by saying you think our record could be better.

We really do not know how much time Frazier gets in the second half and we do not know if he plays whether he will play as well, worse or better than he has.

But having Frazier has not been the disaster that most of us, myself included believed.

Having him has allowed a veteran to take some pressure off of Adley, Gunner and others and it has allowed the Orioles to postpone the clock on some other young guns.  Has it made it harder to get those guys in?  Of course and it will be a problem if the guy or guys you expect to take his place next year are not ready when needed either this season or next.

The Orioles have so far exceeded all of our expectations and are in the thick of a chase for the AL East title (1 1/2 games back).  One of the more exciting things is that the Orioles have done so well while many players seem to have room to improve.  

I don't think that having Frazier is some genius move, but it has been better than most have expected...sort of like the Orioles.  I don't think that makes anyone who hated the move wrong, so much as I think it makes all of us who disliked the move wrong...less informed.  We didn't understand the move and thought it would hurt.   It really hasn't.

And I do not have posters of Frazier or Elias above my bed.   

My wife took em down.

[baltfan]

WAR does a poor job of considering the psychic value of clutch hitting.  Many think that it isn’t a skip but when you do it for a year it still has an impact. Frazier is one of the most clutch hitters in baseball this year.  

[tntoriole]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Talking about our record with regards to Frazier makes zero sense.

He has been worth half a win and that just doubled after last nights game, so it was even worse prior to the AS break. That’s pretty replaceable and yes, I think our record could be better but that’s not really the point.

I understand you have a poster of Frazier hanging on the ceiling of your bedroom but you don’t need to exaggerate who he is or what he has done.

Yeah I do given the reflex negativity that any positive action he performs being minimized and denigrated by the naysayers.

I will stick with Elias and their judgement, not yours, thanks. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, foxfield said:

The last paragraph is not necessary.  But the top part is wrong, even if we accept as fact what Frazier has been worth.

It is purely hypothetical to say that if Frazier had not been added the team would be better off.   It's possible, it is perhaps even likely, but it isn't a given and you state that by saying you think our record could be better.

We really do not know how much time Frazier gets in the second half and we do not know if he plays whether he will play as well, worse or better than he has.

But having Frazier has not been the disaster that most of us, myself included believed.

Having him has allowed a veteran to take some pressure off of Adley, Gunner and others and it has allowed the Orioles to postpone the clock on some other young guns.  Has it made it harder to get those guys in?  Of course and it will be a problem if the guy or guys you expect to take his place next year are not ready when needed either this season or next.

The Orioles have so far exceeded all of our expectations and are in the thick of a chase for the AL East title (1 1/2 games back).  One of the more exciting things is that the Orioles have done so well while many players seem to have room to improve.  

I don't think that having Frazier is some genius move, but it has been better than most have expected...sort of like the Orioles.  I don't think that makes anyone who hated the move wrong, so much as I think it makes all of us who disliked the move wrong...less informed.  We didn't understand the move and thought it would hurt.   It really hasn't.

And I do not have posters of Frazier or Elias above my bed.   

My wife took em down.

Westburg has been worth more in like 3 weeks than Frazier has been all season. He’s clearly better defensively and that alone would make a big difference.

So yes, I can say it with a lot of confidence that we are better off with Westburg as the everyday second baseman because he’s a better player.

 

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

He has been worth half a win and that just doubled after last nights game, so it was even worse prior to the AS break. That’s pretty replaceable and yes, I think our record could be better but that’s not really the point.

For those of us who prefer rWAR or are agnostic between the two, rWAR likes Frazier much better than fWAR and has all season long.  And, there’s the fact that Frazier has hit extremely well with runners on base and in high leverage situations, which is irrelevant to calculating WAR but has significant real world consequences.  He’s second on the team in Win Ptobability Added.  So in my mind, fWAR understates the value that Frazier has had to this team.   I’d still rather have given his PT to the younger players, but I don’t think he’s quite as easily replaceable as you think.  

[tntoriole]

3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

The last paragraph is not necessary.  But the top part is wrong, even if we accept as fact what Frazier has been worth.

It is purely hypothetical to say that if Frazier had not been added the team would be better off.   It's possible, it is perhaps even likely, but it isn't a given and you state that by saying you think our record could be better.

We really do not know how much time Frazier gets in the second half and we do not know if he plays whether he will play as well, worse or better than he has.

But having Frazier has not been the disaster that most of us, myself included believed.

Having him has allowed a veteran to take some pressure off of Adley, Gunner and others and it has allowed the Orioles to postpone the clock on some other young guns.  Has it made it harder to get those guys in?  Of course and it will be a problem if the guy or guys you expect to take his place next year are not ready when needed either this season or next.

The Orioles have so far exceeded all of our expectations and are in the thick of a chase for the AL East title (1 1/2 games back).  One of the more exciting things is that the Orioles have done so well while many players seem to have room to improve.  

I don't think that having Frazier is some genius move, but it has been better than most have expected...sort of like the Orioles.  I don't think that makes anyone who hated the move wrong, so much as I think it makes all of us who disliked the move wrong...less informed.  We didn't understand the move and thought it would hurt.   It really hasn't.

And I do not have posters of Frazier or Elias above my bed.   

My wife took em down.

Oh I was and am an unabashed advocate of Elias decision and of Adam’s professional contribution and still am and I have that poster proudly next to my Cal and Farrah Fawcett. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, baltfan said:

WAR does a poor job of considering the psychic value of clutch hitting.  Many think that it isn’t a skip but when you do it for a year it still has an impact. Frazier is one of the most clutch hitters in baseball this year.  

Great…but he has also largely been an out machine with poorish defense. So while the clutch hitting is nice (and why I want him on the team over Mateo and a few others) it doesn’t mask all the other issues with his game.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Yeah I do given the reflex negativity that any positive action he performs being minimized and denigrated by the naysayers.

I will stick with Elias and their judgement, not yours, thanks. 

Yea, I am aware you are a sheep incapable of your own thoughts. That much is obvious.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

For those of us who prefer rWAR or are agnostic between the two, rWAR likes Frazier much better than fWAR and has all season long.  And, there’s the fact that Frazier has hit extremely well with runners on base and in high leverage situations, which is irrelevant to calculating WAR but has significant real world consequences.  He’s second on the team in Win Ptobability Added.  So in my mind, fWAR understates the value that Frazier has had to this team.   I’d still rather have given his PT to the younger players, but I don’t think he’s quite as easily replaceable as you think.  

Why would you prefer a factually inferior stat? That just doesn’t make sense.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, owknows said:

I'm here for my "Frazier is not a replacement level player" thrashing.

Although I expect the ebb and flow to turn the tables again before season's end...

Enjoying it while I can.

I too expect it to ebb and flow.  Hopefully more flow!

[tntoriole]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, I am aware you are a sheep incapable of your own thoughts. That much is obvious.

Now now … name calling isn’t helpful.  Just because you have to be right and can’t stand anyone disagreeing with you.  Feel free to block… baaaa

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Why would you prefer a factually inferior stat? That just doesn’t make sense.

I don’t really prefer it, I’m more in the agnostic camp.  Unlike you, for instance, I’m not confident that the defensive metrics fWAR relies on are superior.  I’ve always been skeptical of pitching fWAR, though that’s irrelevant here.   

[e16bball]

43 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

3rd best record in AL and Adam has contributed in a major fashion whether the naysayers admit it or not.

This is a fact, and an undeniable one at that, except that we actually have the 2nd best record in the AL.

Frazier is 14th in the AL in WPA, and 2nd on this team. That means, by definition, that he has contributed heavily to our win total with his contributions at the plate. 

And yes, we all get that his overall batting line is league average. One would not expect a league average hitter to be such a major WPA contributor — and no one should reasonably expect Frazier to remain that moving forward if he stays near this level of performance. 

But in terms of what has happened to this point, he’s contributed substantially to the club’s winning.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t really prefer it, I’m more in the agnostic camp.  Unlike you, for instance, I’m not confident that the defensive metrics fWAR relies on are superior.  I’ve always been skeptical of pitching fWAR, though that’s irrelevant here.   

It’s not just the defensive stats, it’s also the park factors. They all matter. It’s a more thorough stat and one that is more recognized in the stat community as the better one. 

 

[baltfan]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Great…but he has also largely been an out machine with poorish defense. So while the clutch hitting is nice (and why I want him on the team over Mateo and a few others) it doesn’t mask all the other issues with his game.

And no one is saying you don’t have to take the defensive issues and hitting issues into account when looking at the total package. But WAR does take those into account.  I assume you would agree a clutch .5 WAR performer is worth more than a non-clutch .5 WAR performer.