Anthony Santander 2023

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, G54377 said:

Let's get down and dirty. What would a trade for 2024 Santander fetch us? Assume he finishes out the year on the same pace he's on.

How much will he make next year, about $11M? He put up 2 WAR last year and is on track for perhaps 3 WAR this year. If you assume 2+ WAR, he might have maybe 1 WAR of surplus value. Trade Simulator puts his value in the range of Stowers, Beavers, and Cole Irvin (who cost Hernaiz). You have to figure if we are actively trading him we will need to accept a slight discount. 

[G54377]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

How much will he make next year, about $11M? He put up 2 WAR last year and is on track for perhaps 3 WAR this year. If you assume 2+ WAR, he might have maybe 1 WAR of surplus value. Trade Simulator puts his value in the range of Stowers, Beavers, and Cole Irvin (who cost Hernaiz). You have to figure if we are actively trading him we will need to accept a slight discount. 

Trade simulator? That's pretty cool where are you using that?

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, G54377 said:

Trade simulator? That's pretty cool where are you using that?

A lot of folks here use it. Kind of silly but I think it gives a decent approximation. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

How much will he make next year, about $11M? He put up 2 WAR last year and is on track for perhaps 3 WAR this year. If you assume 2+ WAR, he might have maybe 1 WAR of surplus value. Trade Simulator puts his value in the range of Stowers, Beavers, and Cole Irvin (who cost Hernaiz). You have to figure if we are actively trading him we will need to accept a slight discount. 

So according to this:

If they hold on to Santander for the 2024 and they give him a QO the O's may get a compensation pick that would be equal to Beavers.   Beavers plus a year of Santander.

If they trade Santander this off season they get Beavers  plus Stowers and Irvin.

Its seem pretty close to me.

[Aristotelian]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So according to this:

If they hold on to Santander for the 2024 and they give him a QO the O's may get a compensation pick that would be equal to Beavers.   Beavers plus a year of Santander.

If they trade Santander this off season they get Beavers  plus Stowers and Irvin.

Its seem pretty close to me.

Sorry, when I said Trade Simulator has him in the range of Beavers/Stowers/Irvin I meant each of them, not all of them. So if we trade him this offseason it would be for one or maybe two of those guys. So from that standpoint, a year of Santander plus comp pick would seem to be a no-brainer. The question is if there is some risk he has a bad year and doesn't get the QO, or he gets the QO and takes it. I personally am inclined to go for the upside scenario since we already have a good number of Beavers level players. 

[Dunk35]

I think you have to let Anthony play out his team control and not trade him. He's not a good fielder, but he has been our best power hitter for the last 2 years when we were a good team both years. He'salso a switch hitter so he doesnt need to be platooned. He seems to be a great clubhouse guy too which I really believe in. 

[Jim'sKid26]

1 minute ago, Dunk35 said:

I think you have to let Anthony play out his team control and not trade him. He's not a good fielder, but he has been our best power hitter for the last 2 years when we were a good team both years. He'salso a switch hitter so he doesnt need to be platooned. He seems to be a great clubhouse guy too which I really believe in. 

Do you want to pay him $20+M to essentially DH? If the attitude of the O's ownership is to tie player salaries to attendance and the O's are, as we have discussed extensively here, a small market team; do you spend that cash on a DH who's likely to give you 2-3 WAR? 

I wouldn't do that.

[survivedc]

4 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Do you want to pay him $20+M to essentially DH? If the attitude of the O's ownership is to tie player salaries to attendance and the O's are, as we have discussed extensively here, a small market team; do you spend that cash on a DH who's likely to give you 2-3 WAR? 

I wouldn't do that.

Who wants to pay him $20M?

[Jim'sKid26]

2 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Who wants to pay him $20M?

That's what the QO is. It's the only way you would get draft compensation if he walks at the end of his ARB years.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, survivedc said:

Who wants to pay him $20M?

Wasn't the last QO 19.65M?

[baltfan]

13 minutes ago, Dunk35 said:

I think you have to let Anthony play out his team control and not trade him. He's not a good fielder, but he has been our best power hitter for the last 2 years when we were a good team both years. He'salso a switch hitter so he doesnt need to be platooned. He seems to be a great clubhouse guy too which I really believe in. 

Santander definitely seems like a bridge between some of the Hispanic players and the other players on the team.  There is a value there that I am not sure we can quantify.  One of the things I like about Elias is that it seems he believes there is some value to these types of things and appears to be attempting to quantify them in some way.  

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Baltimorecuse said:

Cowser is McKenna Jr.  He couldn't walk in Santander's shadow.  Has Cowser learned to catch the ball yet.  He's the hands down Hector Lopez Award winner.

This is a foolish thing to say at this point.  Cowser doesn’t have enough major league experience to judge him.  Santander had a .565 OPS his first two partial seasons in the majors.  Good thing the O’s didn’t give up on him as quickly as you’ve given up on Cowser.  

And pardon my ignorance, but what does Hector Lopez have to do with anything?  I don’t even understand that reference.  
 

[baltfan]

12 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Do you want to pay him $20+M to essentially DH? If the attitude of the O's ownership is to tie player salaries to attendance and the O's are, as we have discussed extensively here, a small market team; do you spend that cash on a DH who's likely to give you 2-3 WAR? 

I wouldn't do that.

He isn't a DH.  He has shown himself capable at first and actually ok in RF.  I don't cringe when I see him at either position.  Moreover, there is pretty much no one I would rather see up if the Orioles need a hit.  

[Baltimorecuse]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is a foolish thing to say at this point.  Cowser doesn’t have enough major league experience to judge him.  Santander had a .565 OPS his first two partial seasons in the majors.  Good thing the O’s didn’t give up on him as quickly as you’ve given up on Cowser.  

And pardon my ignorance, but what does Hector Lopez have to do with anything?  I don’t even understand that reference.  
 

We won't know for a couple of years.  Don't forget what I said.  Hector Lopez couldn't field.  

[dzorange]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

This is a foolish thing to say at this point.  Cowser doesn’t have enough major league experience to judge him.  Santander had a .565 OPS his first two partial seasons in the majors.  Good thing the O’s didn’t give up on him as quickly as you’ve given up on Cowser.  

And pardon my ignorance, but what does Hector Lopez have to do with anything?  I don’t even understand that reference.  
 

Not only the first two partial seasons - Santander's walk rate went from around 5-6% to 8-9% the last two seasons.

Santander's turned into a real professional hitter. Took a while though.