Anthony Santander 2023

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I’d be very surprised if he’s suddenly figured it out at 29, but stranger things have happened. His .359 BABIP suggests he’s had some good luck this year. He’s probably closer to a .700-.750 hitter. Decent depth and backup option, but not someone you count on to be your starting 1B. 

He can be part of a platoon. He hits the ball hard. Mayo is your first baseman of the future but he certainly may not start off as a 155 games a year type guy. If OHearn gets 300-400 at bats vs righties at DH and first, that may be fine.  Agreed we need to see how he finishes off the year but I’ll be surprised if he just craps the bed like he has most of his career.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Not if he’s a key piece in an arm that brings the team more value than he does and then you bring up Kjerstad to replace his bat.

We have watched rookies struggle of a couple of months before adjusting to major league pitching.   The O's can afford to replace Santander with Kjerstad and them watch Kjerstad struggle.   That is a good way to miss the playoffs.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

We have watched rookies struggle of a couple of months before adjusting to major league pitching.   The O's can afford to replace Santander with Kjerstad and them watch Kjerstad struggle.   That is a good way to miss the playoffs.

They are not missing the playoffs. The key is to make your team better to win in the playoffs.

There may not be a Tony Taters for pitcher X deal out there that makes us better. I don’t know but if there is, it’s a deal you absolutely make.

Much rather trade him Vs the better prospects.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, wildcard said:

We have watched rookies struggle of a couple of months before adjusting to major league pitching.   The O's can afford to replace Santander with Kjerstad and them watch Kjerstad struggle.   That is a good way to miss the playoffs.

Agreed. There is no reason to assume that kind of risk with a team this good. There are other ways for us to obtain a good starting pitcher (if that is so desired) with disturbing the Major League team. I believe in Kjerstad and think he will be a very good hitter and power bat for the middle of the order. But I’m not so anxious to see him that I am willing to take that chance. Santander has been one of the most reliable hitters on the team this year. I would rather ride it out with the known/given for the rest of the year and then move on from either he or Hays in the offseason.

[btdart20]

9 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I’d be very surprised if he’s suddenly figured it out at 29, but stranger things have happened. His .359 BABIP suggests he’s had some good luck this year. He’s probably closer to a .700-.750 hitter. Decent depth and backup option, but not someone you count on to be your starting 1B. 

How much of O'Hearn's .359 Babip is driven off of the shift ban?  I believe that was one of the suspected reasons Elias brought O'Hearn in.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They are not missing the playoffs. The key is to make your team better to win in the playoffs.

There may not be a Tony Taters for pitcher X deal out there that makes us better. I don’t know but if there is, it’s a deal you absolutely make.

Much rather trade him Vs the better prospects.

I guess it depends for me on who you consider “the better prospects”. I’m ok moving any not named Holliday, Kjerstad, Cowser, or Mayo. The rest IMO can be replace as we have duplicates or at least players/prospects who are comparable for that position. 

[IPlayGM]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not if he’s a key piece in an arm that brings the team more value than he does and then you bring up Kjerstad to replace his bat.

I agree with you, but I would just be very surprised if Elias pulls that trigger. My comments were more in line with when I expect him to go. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

How much of O'Hearn's .359 Babip is driven off of the shift ban?  I believe that was one of the suspected reasons Elias brought O'Hearn in.

Spray chart for 2023 is available.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-o-hearn-656811?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

We have watched rookies struggle of a couple of months before adjusting to major league pitching.   The O's can afford to replace Santander with Kjerstad and them watch Kjerstad struggle.   That is a good way to miss the playoffs.

By “can,” I assume you mean “can’t.”  I agree that’s not a gamble the O’s will take.  

[btdart20]

38 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Spray chart for 2023 is available.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ryan-o-hearn-656811?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Thanks, I forgot about that page...

Looks like anywhere from 3-6 hits could be outs if there was a shift.

3 less hits = .283

6 less hits = .262

[Aristotelian]

Anyone who is selling pitching is not going to be interested in 1 year of Santander at $15M+. Plus you would be taking a leap of faith that Kjerstad will hit from the start with no adjustment to the big leagues. That is a huge gamble to take with the playoffs on the line. Not sure that's going to work for the Orioles or likely trade partners. I wouldn't rule it out but I don't see us trading one of our core players right now, makes more sense to trade prospects so we actually improve the club instead of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

[G54377]

Yea I've moved to the idea to at least keep Santander for the remainder of the year. Question: If we kept Santander and offered a QO which he accepted, could he still then be traded for that 2025 year?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, G54377 said:

Yea I've moved to the idea to at least keep Santander for the remainder of the year. Question: If we kept Santander and offered a QO which he accepted, could he still then be traded for that 2025 year?

Sure.

The only way a guy wouldn't would be if accepting the QO made him a 10/5 guy.

[ChosenOne21]

10 hours ago, G54377 said:

Yea I've moved to the idea to at least keep Santander for the remainder of the year. Question: If we kept Santander and offered a QO which he accepted, could he still then be traded for that 2025 year?

Technically, yes, though I'm not sure how much value/interest there is in one year of Santander at QO prices.

[Frobby]

On 7/17/2023 at 10:03 AM, Aristotelian said:

Anyone who is selling pitching is not going to be interested in 1 year of Santander at $15M+. 

I’m kind of distracting from your main point here, but it’s highly doubtful that Santander would earn $15 mm+ next year.   He’s making $7.4 mm now, and a typical Arb 4 raise is in the neighborhood of 55-60%.   Maybe Santander gets slightly more than that for having a good year.  I doubt he exceeds $13 mm.