Gunnar Henderson 2023

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Im at the point (well I have been there) where this team needs to start making moves. 
 

When have you ever not been at that point?

[RZNJ]

I’ve noticed that Henderson is very selective at the plate even when behind in the count.  However, I think I’ve seen at least 4 times in the last week where he goes way out of the zone on a 3-2 pitch.   I guess he’s guessing fastball but pitchers keep throwing him the back foot braking pitch.   His anxiousness to break out of his slump is working against him.

[spleen1015]

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’ve noticed that Henderson is very selective at the plate even when behind in the count.  However, I think I’ve seen at least 4 times in the last week where he goes way out of the zone on a 3-2 pitch.   I guess he’s guessing fastball but pitchers keep throwing him the back foot braking pitch.   His anxiousness to break out of his slump is working against him.

Last night in his last AB, the pitch he took for ball 3 was the same pitch he swung at for strike 3 on the very next pitch. I think dude is putting a lot of pressure on himself.

Edited April 12, 2023 by spleen1015

[interloper]

What's the leash on Gunnar? I'm fine giving him a pretty long leash into mid-May. That said, he's not looking like the sure-fire ROY we hoped for. 

That said even with his struggles, his OPS is still .652 thanks to his .354 OBP through 11 games. That's outpacing his OBP from last season, so it still feels like he's going to pop eventually.  

[Tony-OH]

The good news with Gunnar is that his XWOBA is at .325 which is major league average and his EV is in the 87th percentile. He's showing a plus plus eye at the plate with a 97th percentile BB rate and 72nd percentile chase rate. 

That suggests he should be better, but that plus eye is coming at the expense of getting deep in counts causing a high strike out rate and low XBA (4th percentile) and XSLG (22nd). He's taking 7% more pitches (35%-28%) in the heart of the strike zone than an AVG MLB hitter, so being a little more aggressive might be in his best interest.

Now, saying that, his inability to hit breaking balls or offspeed is a bit concerning. He was not great at it last year either, but pitchers are not suddenly throwing him a bunch of non fastballs. He's seeing just 1.5% less fastballs this season so far, so really more it's about making good hard contact on those fastballs and making better contact on the non-fastballs.

It was good to see him get more aggressive early in counts in yesterday's game. He's been a really bad two-strike hitter this year going 0-for-22, with 4 BBs and a HBP with 18 strikeout. Whatever the reason for the terrible wo strike approach, he probably needs to work on being more aggressive earlier in counts.

I think he's going to be fine and just needs one of those breakout games to get him back on track but I do have continuing concerns about his ability to hit left-handed pitching. He struggled against them most of his minor league career but was given starts already against lefties, including Cortes who dominates lefties. Of course Urias would be seem to be the perfect choice to replace him against particularly tough lefties, but the Orioles signed Frazier to play second base when historically he's struggled against them as well.

The Orioles seem to have a weird way of determining splits and platoons. They hated Stowers against lefties at the major league level yet he hit them his whole minor league career but have no issues starting Henderson or even Frazier (if Rf no less) against lefties. I don't get it.

Either way, worrying about him hitting lefties is a secondary issue until he starts to hit righties better. White Sox have some tough starters coming up so this should be another test for him. He's gotten hits in each of his last two games (including a hustle 2B) so hopefully he's starting to get on track.

 

[Spy Fox]

39 minutes ago, interloper said:

What's the leash on Gunnar? I'm fine giving him a pretty long leash into mid-May. That said, he's not looking like the sure-fire ROY we hoped for. 

That said even with his struggles, his OPS is still .652 thanks to his .354 OBP through 11 games. That's outpacing his OBP from last season, so it still feels like he's going to pop eventually.  

Not that this guarantees Gunnar will break out, but JRod had a .544 OPS and 0 HR in 20g last April.

[Bemorewins]

19 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Not that this guarantees Gunnar will break out, but JRod had a .544 OPS and 0 HR in 20g last April.

Exactly! Adley struggled too when he first came up and so did Witt Jr. Volpe is also struggling now. 

It's a big jump to the bigs and guys have to figure out what will work for them at this level.

I think Tony pointed out one of the big adjustments that Gunnar needs to make and appears to be making these last few days. He's got to be more aggressive in the zone. He has watched A LOT of meatball pitches right down the shoot, get him behind in the count.

Patience at the plate is a great thing unless it starts to paralyze you from punishing YOUR pitch in the zone. When he sees it, he has to be more aggressive in attacking it because it may only come once that at bat. If they don't give it to you then fine take your walk.

[RZNJ]

I’ll add this.  He seems to be waiting for the perfect hitters pitch which never comes.   In his last AB, IIRC, he took two fastballs on the outer half and was down 0-2.    He has a lot of oppo power too.   Being selective is great but he seems to be taking it too far.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

30 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Not that this guarantees Gunnar will break out, but JRod had a .544 OPS and 0 HR in 20g last April.

Cal Ripken had a horrific start to his 1982 ROY season. The problem is (cue Captain Obvious) any slump to start the year is going to be more pronounced than if it was happening in July.

Gunnar is demonstrating good patience at the plate and I believe it's only a matter of time before he starts hitting.

[Big Mac]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Cal Ripken had a horrific start to his 1982 ROY season. The problem is (cue Captain Obvious) any slump to start the year is going to be more pronounced than if it was happening in July.

Gunnar is demonstrating good patience at the plate and I believe it's only a matter of time before he starts hitting.

Mountcastle mentioned this himself in his post-game interview yesterday, but he also struggled mightily at the beginning of 2021 after a promising debut in 2020.  In April 2021, he hit .198/.229/.286 with 4 BB and 30 SO. 

[Since1984]

I think of Bryce Harper regarding Henderson’s patience at the plate and not getting pitches to hit. Not an expert but the there is a reason pitchers would rather miss off the corners, then on the plate.

this has to be very frustrating for a rookie…chomping at the bit with very little to hit

Edited April 15, 2023 by Since1984
I had a beverage this friday

[Spy Fox]

Clicking around Baseball Savant this morning I discovered a stat I've never looked into before: Swing/Take Run Values. 

The stat groups pitches into four regions, Heart (the middle of the zone), Shadow (the edge of the zone), Chase (outside the zone) and Waste (way outside the zone). You can see each players' swing % in each zone, and they calculate an estimated Run Value based on your results on those swings or takes. 

Gunnar Henderson is swinging less than the league average in all regions, but this is particularly notable in the "Shadow" zone of the few inches on either side of the edge of the strikezone. He has swung at 33 of these pitches and taken 63, for a 34% swing rate. The league swingrate on these pitches is 52%. And the stat estimates that this hasn't served him well as he has a -3 Run Value in the Shadow zone. (For reference on scale, the best score and worst scores in that zone are currently +6 and -7.)

Seems to back up what we've been observing that Gunnar is being too passive, but that better times may be coming as he gets more confident with the big league zone. 

And it will surprise no one that the Orioles' best performer in the category of smart Swing & Take results is Adley Rutschman, fueled by a tied-for-league-leading +5 in the Chase zone. 

[owknows]

Ahhhh.. he's a bum. Send him back down.

[Il BuonO]

On 4/14/2023 at 1:37 PM, RZNJ said:

I’ll add this.  He seems to be waiting for the perfect hitters pitch which never comes.   In his last AB, IIRC, he took two fastballs on the outer half and was down 0-2.    He has a lot of oppo power too.   Being selective is great but he seems to be taking it too far.   

And that oppo power won’t serve him well at Camden Yards. I rarely see him pull much of anything and he looks overmatched on a good FB. 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Il BuonO said:

And that oppo power won’t serve him well at Camden Yards. I rarely see him pull much of anything and he looks overmatched on a good FB. 

He’ll be fine.  He can hit them out to any part of the park but I’m sure LF at OPACY won’t be easy.