Gunnar Henderson 2023

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Promoting a 1st rd draft pick (from college) from 3 years ago, who is currently posting an OPS of over 1.000 at the AAA level is ridiculous.

Got it. Thanks.

Who needs organizational management when you have Baseball America.

Can you read?

[7Mo]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can you read?

I try to sound out the big words but I got all of these on the first try.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, 7Mo said:

I try to sound out the big words but I got all of these on the first try.

I

was

not

Ask-ing

you.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Absolute studs don’t bat under .200 w/ their greatest value being when they don’t swing the bat.

I think it’s too early to call Gunnar an absolute stud, but it’s also way too early to even consider sending him to the minors or reducing his playing time.  His very good OBP puts a floor on how much his other current struggles hurt you.  His wOBA is above league average at .321 and his wRC+ is at 103.  So, he’s giving us slightly above league average performance offensively even though he’s not getting many hits.  So, you stay the course, let him learn, and wait for the other parts of his offensive game to get better.  They almost surely will, and I’ll be surprised if it takes very long for that to happen.   But, even if it takes longer than I think it will, he’s not hurting the O’s, and they’ll be patient.  

[SemperFi]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Well gosh, we don't know what Creed Williems would do at the ML level, let's promote him and see!

Yesterday Gunnar's OPS+ was 102.

He's fine.

I have no issue at all with promoting Westburg, but not at the expense of Gunnar, it's a process, he needs ML reps.

I don't know the answer but like many players his hitting struggles seem to be affecting other parts of his game.  Last night letting a ball get down the line in the bottom of the eighth, his inability to advance runners in scoring postion.  His defense and ability to make hard contact are not where they were last year and there are a number of more  productive options.  In the past it didn't really matter, now  each game has year end consequences.  Yes, you want him to play through it because the talent is evident but there is a good chance Urias makes those plays.  

[Ohfan67]

I think it would be interesting to have a real conversation about Gunnar’s performance and what he needs to do to improve, but that seems difficult in this thread. That’s a bit of a bummer. I always try to think of similar situations of other young players and look at how they improved, but Gunnar’s performance to date seems so unique. It’s not easy to find comps of young players with such a high OBP who struggled to hit. Anyway, it would be interesting to see a deep look at what he’s doing right and what he’s doing wrong…without a ton of hyperbole either way.  Maybe it’s here in OH or somewhere else on the internet and I have missed it. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

I don't know the answer but like many players his hitting struggles seem to be affecting other parts of his game.  Last night letting a ball get down the line in the bottom of the eighth, his inability to advance runners in scoring postion.  His defense and ability to make hard contact are not where they were last year and there are a number of more  productive options.  In the past it didn't really matter, now  each game has year end consequences.  Yes, you want him to play through it because the talent is evident but there is a good chance Urias makes those plays.  

I'm not saying I'm on the play Urias at First bandwagon, or even the let's play Gunnar in multiple position group.

[Chaka Garcia]

2 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I think it would be interesting to have a real conversation about Gunnar’s performance and what he needs to do to improve, but that seems difficult in this thread. That’s a bit of a bummer. I always try to think of similar situations of other young players and look at how they improved, but Gunnar’s performance to date seems so unique. It’s not easy to find comps of young players with such a high OBP who struggled to hit. Anyway, it would be interesting to see a deep look at what he’s doing right and what he’s doing wrong…without a ton of hyperbole either way.  Maybe it’s here in OH or somewhere else on the internet and I have missed it. 

I haven’t jumped ship on Gunnar yet. In lieu Markakis’s rookie year had a similar trajectory (I hope). He struggled the first half (fans clamoring to demote him), but walked then figured it out and exploded. 

Looking around the league, many top prospect rookies are struggling including Walker who was sent down.

[OriolesMagic83]

Hyde (w/ an assist from Sig's computer) is batting Gunnar cleanup today.  He's nowhere close to being demoted by those that actually make the decisions.  He's been hitting the ball better lately and I expect him to get hot soon.

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Probably not, but those chances are likely improved if Westburg is promoted to share time with Gunnar in the lineup. Maybe by giving up on the carry 3 catchers nonsense.

IMO that is not a good way to get value out of top org assets. You don’t platoon top 100 guys immediately out of the gate. You platoon less talented guys, not your most talented ones. You are getting much more value out of the player if that is the case, by simply choosing to play one over the other and playing the other somewhere else. If there is. I where else to play them as is out in our case with some of our young infield prospects, you trade them for something that you need.

[Bemorewins]

3 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Who cares? How is that relevant to putting our best team on the field today?

Question for you: What makes you think that Westburg would come up and outperform Gunnar? Almost all, prospects nowadays struggle to acclimate out of the gate just like Gunnar and Grayson are doing. Remember it took Adley a while last season to settle in, just like it took JRod and Witt Jr some time. Rarely do guys just come up and start succeeding immediately from the Minors.

Also, what would be your plan if Westburg struggles? How much leash would you give him?

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Chaka Garcia said:

I haven’t jumped ship on Gunnar yet. In lieu Markakis’s rookie year had a similar trajectory (I hope). He struggled the first half (fans clamoring to demote him), but walked then figured it out and exploded. 

Looking around the league, many top prospect rookies are struggling including Walker who was sent down.

I think the Markakis analogy is useful, but you can only take it so far.  Gunnar actually has a much higher OBP than Nick had in his first two months.  By the same token, Nick was striking out a lot less.  We also shouldn’t forget that Gunnar actually played a month of Major League Baseball last year and did much better than he’s doing now.  

Watching Gunnar this year and last year, he’s being even choosier this year, both inside and outside the strike zone.  But, he made better contact last year, especially when he did swing outside the zone.  It just feels like Gunnar is a little tentative right now and his timing is a little off.  2022 vs. 2023:

O-swing%: 23.2%, 19.4%

Z-swing%: 67.3%, 59.8%

O-contact%: 60.8%, 42.3%

Z-contact%: 81.8%, 78.2%

His wOBA is .321 which is a little above league average, his xwOBA is .335 which is 60th percentile.  So, he has things to improve but isn’t really doing that terribly in terms of overall contribution and expected contribution.  

To @Ohfan67’s question about what he needs to do to improve, I think it’s a two part answer, only one of which contains a concrete suggestion from me.  I think he needs to be more aggressive once he gets to two strikes.  He can’t let borderline pitches go by in two strike counts, he needs to attack them or learn to spoil them.   The other part is he just needs to get his timing in sync.   I can’t help him with that. He just needs to keep grinding away with his hitting cos he’s until he starts doing what he did last year.  I think that’ll come, I just can’t say how long it will take.  





 

[Gofannon]

Kind of glad the Hangout wasn't around for Cal Ripken's end of 1981 (5 for 39, .120/.150/.128) or his first month of 1982 (9 for 65, .138/.164/.231).  He started to turn it around on May 6th.  Maybe Gunnar turns it around on May 7th?

[SemperFi]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Question for you: What makes you think that Westburg would come up and outperform Gunnar? Almost all, prospects nowadays struggle to acclimate out of the gate just like Gunnar and Grayson are doing. Remember it took Adley a while last season to settle in, just like it took JRod and Witt Jr some time. Rarely do guys just come up and start succeeding immediately from the Minors.

Also, what would be your plan if Westburg struggles? How much leash would you give him?

Like you I trust management to make those decisions, but this is only a discussion because they have numerous options which hasn't been a case in the past.  If they did decide to option him (which they won't) I don't even  think Westburg starts at third-it would be Urias.  Defense matters, Westburg may be capable but he's not a gold glover. 

[RZNJ]

Gunnar’s biggest problem is that he wants to be great.  Still trying to do too much.   He gets ahead in the count and is looking for the long ball.   Missing fastballs in fastball counts.  Swinging at bad breaking pitches in fastball counts.   Taking outer half fastballs in fastball counts.   He’s got a great stroke to LF.   He needs to think oppo single and everything will fall into place.