TT: It's time to bring up Colton Cowser

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

McCann has a .361 xwOBA, and has only struck out 6 times in 56 PA.   From my point of view, watching the games, he’s swung the bat much better than his OPS indicates.  So yes, I’m expecting to see more of him at DH until that stops working.  Is it the choice I’d make?  Not necessarily.  But I’ll understand when they do it.  

It's not about 17 at bats.  It's about a career of being a solid option against lefties.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

McCann has a .361 xwOBA, and has only struck out 6 times in 56 PA.   From my point of view, watching the games, he’s swung the bat much better than his OPS indicates.  So yes, I’m expecting to see more of him at DH until that stops working.  Is it the choice I’d make?  Not necessarily.  But I’ll understand when they do it.  

I actually agree he looks better than his numbers. I was surprised to see them that poor and kept checking to make sure I didn’t screw something  up.

That said, we aren’t talking about a guy who has a good history with the bat, especially recently.  The plan to DH him is a poor one, when we have so many good young players ready to go.

 

[Just Regular]

I think Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth kind of got at the style difference between Cowser and Stowers.

Cobb was the best scientific hitter and irritated by that brute.    Stowers for me is that SLG first profile - maybe Trumbo-ish if he pans out.  

Cowser started as the Markakis type, but I believe has been trained by the Club to cultivate the SLG approach.    Also, young man has sprouted and looks very strong.

As strong as Elias' results have generally been, and as much as he cares about each $50-$100k of pool money, I think directionally at least it gives an indicator who he thinks these guys will be.     You hope your lower dollar guys break out, and expect more from the multi-millionaires.

Granted it stinks in other ways if they get that first $5mm in the bank...

[Sydnor]

21 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

1) no one is calling for him to be a part time player.

2) you cite those stats but basically all of that damage came in the stretch to begin May where he has 6 straight 2 hit games and another 2 hit game in one of the DH games vs Det at the end of April. Almost all of his offense this year was in those 7 games. 14 of his 34 hits in those 7 games, 3 of his 5 homers and 3 of his 12 doubles.

He just hasn’t done a lot outside of those games.

His current fWAR pace is about 1.6. That’s not really anything special.

(1) I think of 4 games a week as more of a part time player, but that’s my opinion. 5 games less so.

(2) I just don’t put a lot of stock in when players do damage. There’s no question he was on a heater for that stretch, but I think it all evens out over time. To me, that’s like saying that if you take away Adley’s 5/5, 4/4, and 4/5 games, he’d only be hitting .218.

(3) I just believe in Santander more than you do (and probably a lot of the Board), and that’s okay. I don’t know think it’s a given that Cowser, Stowers, Kjerstad, or any other prospect can replicate what he provides to the team because I don’t think they will reach their 80th or 90th percentile outcome.

I understand the WAR arguments that say that Santander is a slightly above average player, but think more nuance is required. To me, he is their best power hitter, and he switch hits, which is a bonus. I can cite process stats like barrel rates and hard hit percentages to say he’s better than people think, and others that like him less can cite xSLG, xBA, etc. to say he’s not as good as I think he is. Basically, we can make the stats say what we want them to say. I think he’s their second best hitter behind Adley and that WAR undervalues what he provides.

This isn’t to say Cowser cannot or should not come up. Starting Santander at first last night was a good step in that direction, though I have no problem with him in RF because he has been better in RF than Hays has been in LF.

Edited May 16, 2023 by Sydnor

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Sydnor said:

(1) I think of 4 games a week as more of a part time player, but that’s my opinion. 5 games less so.

(2) I just don’t put a lot of stock in when players do damage. There’s no question he was on a heater for that stretch, but I think it all evens out over time. To me, that’s like saying that if you take away Adley’s 5/5, 4/4, and 4/5 games, he’d only be hitting .218.

(3) I just believe in Santander more than you do (and probably a lot of the Board), and that’s okay. I don’t know think it’s a given that Cowser, Stowers, Kjerstad, or any other prospect can replicate what he provides to the team because I don’t think they will reach their 80th or 90th percentile outcome.

I understand the WAR arguments that say that Santander is a slightly above average player, but think more nuance is required. To me, he is their best power hitter, and he switch hits, which is a bonus. I can cite process stats like barrel rates and hard hit percentages to say he’s better than people think, and others that like him less can cite xSLG, xBA, etc. to say he’s not as good as I think he is. Basically, we can make the state say what we want them to say. I think he’s their second best hitter behind Adley and that WAR undervalues what he provides.

This isn’t to say Cowser cannot or should not come up. Starting Santander at first last night was a good step in that direction, though I have no problem with him in RF because he has been better in RF than Hays has been in LF.

I agree with what you said in #2. The problem with it is that we are still early in the season and SSS can skew stats. Santander, outside of that 7 game stretch, has been very ineffective with the bat overall. 
 

You say things even out..I don’t disagree. But that’s over the course of an entire season, not 7 weeks. So far, he has basically had one great week and tons of mediocrity to poor play other than that.

Over his career, outside of last season, it’s been the same thing. Low OBP, inconsistency, poor reliability and lots of power. That’s who he is.

So, playing 4-5 times a week is fine.

Now, if he can handle first, to me that gives him an extra 1-2 starts a week from what I was saying. 

[Bemorewins]

19 hours ago, Just Regular said:

I think Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth kind of got at the style difference between Cowser and Stowers.

Cobb was the best scientific hitter and irritated by that brute.    Stowers for me is that SLG first profile - maybe Trumbo-ish if he pans out.  

Cowser started as the Markakis type, but I believe has been trained by the Club to cultivate the SLG approach.    Also, young man has sprouted and looks very strong.

As strong as Elias' results have generally been, and as much as he cares about each $50-$100k of pool money, I think directionally at least it gives an indicator who he thinks these guys will be.     You hope your lower dollar guys break out, and expect more from the multi-millionaires.

Granted it stinks in other ways if they get that first $5mm in the bank...

Wow!! That is extremely lofty praise to put Stowers in the same comparison category as Trumbo! It would be an exponential leap if he ever produces 30 hrs in a season let alone 40 or 50 like Trumbo.

Realistically speaking I could see that as a ceiling for Kjerstad, not Stowers. I just don’t see him with that kind of talent/potential/projection.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Wow!! That is extremely lofty praise to put Stowers in the same comparison category as Trumbo! It would be an exponential leap if he ever produces 30 hrs in a season let alone 40 or 50 like Trumbo.

Realistically speaking I could see that as a ceiling for Kjerstad, not Stowers. I just don’t see him with that kind of talent/potential/projection.

He absolutely has that talent/potential/production.

Kjerstad is a more well rounded offensive player so while the power of Trumbo would be nice, the total offensive output would be disappointing.  

[maybenxtyr]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Wow!! That is extremely lofty praise to put Stowers in the same comparison category as Trumbo! It would be an exponential leap if he ever produces 30 hrs in a season let alone 40 or 50 like Trumbo.

Realistically speaking I could see that as a ceiling for Kjerstad, not Stowers. I just don’t see him with that kind of talent/potential/projection.

The Trumbo comp is one that I've always liked for Mountcastle.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He absolutely has that talent/potential/production.

Kjerstad is a more well rounded offensive player so while the power of Trumbo would be nice, the total offensive output would be disappointing.  

I don’t see that at all from Stowers. He is much higher rated on this board than by the general consensus of the baseball community. He was never really a highly rated prospect. He didn’t even crack many top 100 lists. Trumbo is an 80 power guy on the scouting scale. I don’t see Stowers anywhere near that.

[Aristotelian]

14 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Wow!! That is extremely lofty praise to put Stowers in the same comparison category as Trumbo! It would be an exponential leap if he ever produces 30 hrs in a season let alone 40 or 50 like Trumbo.

Realistically speaking I could see that as a ceiling for Kjerstad, not Stowers. I just don’t see him with that kind of talent/potential/projection.

Trumbo was worth like 1 WAR per year. His 47 homer season was a major outlier and even then he put up only 2 WAR! My prediction would be Stowers will have less power, higher OBP, and better defense (only because of Trumbo's very low bar). 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t see that at all from Stowers. He is much higher rated on this board than by the general consensus of the baseball community. He was never really a highly rated prospect. He didn’t even crack many top 100 lists. Trumbo is an 80 power guy on the scouting scale. I don’t see Stowers anywhere near that.

I don’t think Trumbo was ever an 80 on the scouting scale.

Stowers has tremendous power. He definitely has big time power potential.

He has been universally thought of as a top 10 prospect in the best system in the game. Saying he wasn’t/isn’t highly sought of because of meaningless top 100 lists is just wrong.

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think Trumbo was ever an 80 on the scouting scale.

Stowers has tremendous power. He definitely has big time power potential.

He has been universally thought of as a top 10 prospect in the best system in the game. Saying he wasn’t/isn’t highly sought of because of meaningless top 100 lists is just wrong.

 

So, top 10 organizational prospect lists have meaning but top 100 prospect lists are meaningless?   You can’t make this stuff up.  Priceless!

[RZNJ]

Stowers has top of the scale power and exit velocities which are meaningless if you can’t do it consistently in game at the ML level.  Joe Adell has top of the scale power.  Who cares?

Kyle Stowers has been to the plate 131 times as a ML player.  He has 4 doubles, 3 homers, 8 walks, 41 strikeouts, and a - .6 rwar.    He might be good one day but early returns suggest ML pitching can neutralize his main asset.

Edited May 16, 2023 by RZNJ

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He absolutely has that talent/potential/production.

Kjerstad is a more well rounded offensive player so while the power of Trumbo would be nice, the total offensive output would be disappointing.  

Trumbo had a 9.5 rWAR career.  That’s nothing to sneeze at. It was 18th among all position players who debuted in 2010.  He was 5th in homers, 7th in RBI, 9th in runs scored.   A top 10 offensive player in his class.  Just not much on defense.  

if Kjerstad had Trumbo’s career, that would be about a median outcome for a no. 2 pick.  His ceiling is probably significantly higher than that, but that kind of outcome would be OK - neither great nor awful.  

Stowers on the other hand was a no. 71 pick.  Only 5 players picked at 71 exceeded Trumbo’s 9.5 rWAR and two exceeded his HR total.  Even without seeing Stowers’ performance to date in the majors, I’d say he was not likely to have a career as good as Trumbo’s.  

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by Frobby

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think Trumbo was ever an 80 on the scouting scale.

Stowers has tremendous power. He definitely has big time power potential.

He has been universally thought of as a top 10 prospect in the best system in the game. Saying he wasn’t/isn’t highly sought of because of meaningless top 100 lists is just wrong.

 

I did a quick Google search and couldn't find what he was on the scouting scale. Off of memory, his tremendous power potential was always recognized in the game when he was a young player. I can't recall anybody outside of Orioles fans really discussing Stowers similarly. I could be wrong and just missed it. 

I think Trumbo's issue(s) is that he literally brought NOTHING else to the table. He was the pure example of a one-dimensional player.

As far as, top 100 lists being meaningless. I couldn't disagree with you any more. It gives you a feel for how the game/scouting consensus regards/values players potential. Many of these lists are pretty objective and they all are evaluating the same players. If NOBODY sees a player in a certain light/potential, I think it's prudent to take note of that. It doesn't mean that guys can't exceed expectations or underperform for that matter. But I think they can at least give you some decent clues/tools in terms of who the player is and what they can realistically become.