What do you think Mateo’s final 2023 OPS will be?

[Hank Scorpio]

Honestly, if he puts up .750 this year we should high five the crap out of this organization for developing the secret sauce. 

 

[ShoelesJoe]

.850-.899

So long as Mateo stays healthy and keeps going to RF I can't see his OPS dropping below .850. If he gets pull happy again I can't see his final OPS being above .750. 

[Jagwar]

@Sports Guy with the sub .700 OPS vote. If my math is correct, Mateo would have to OPS 627 over the next 5 months to average sub 700.  Not impossible for sure.  But it would be a dramatic drop from April. 

[jdwilde1]

I’ve got .800-.850.  Given his torrid start, he’ll need to maintain an OPS around the career mark of Austin Hays for the next 125 games.  I think that’s reasonable.  

[Moose Milligan]

1.000 or higher because 1.100 or higher wasn’t an option. 

[jdwilde1]

12 minutes ago, Jagwar said:

@Sports Guy with the sub .700 OPS vote. If my math is correct, Mateo would have to OPS 627 over the next 5 months to average sub 700.  Not impossible for sure.  But it would be a dramatic drop from April. 

Yes, that’s going to require him posting an OPS about 60 points below his career average while still getting significant plate appearances.  My guess is that if he falls off that hard he’ll lose playing time.  It could be tough to get that low given his April statistics.  

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

@Sports Guy with the sub .700 OPS vote. If my math is correct, Mateo would have to OPS 627 over the next 5 months to average sub 700.  Not impossible for sure.  But it would be a dramatic drop from April. 

Haters gonna hate.

[Pickles]

I went with 800-849.

As the math has already been done that's pretty easy: He needs a 750 OPS the rest of the way.

That's my new base expectation for him.  As someone else noted: This is similar to Mullins' breakout in 21.  Yeah, he's not 1000 OPS guy, but he's a markedly improved hitter.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

@Sports Guy with the sub .700 OPS vote. If my math is correct, Mateo would have to OPS 627 over the next 5 months to average sub 700.  Not impossible for sure.  But it would be a dramatic drop from April. 

He’s gotta double down.    Just another Oriole player making him look dumb.   One thing statistics and percentages can’t predict.  Players making adjustments and changes and getting better.    Some do.  Some don’t.  Mateo got stronger and made the changes.   

[OriolesMagic83]

I think Mateo's improvement is real, and I was in favor of trading him in the offseason.  I don't think he will keep hitting like he has because that would be peak ARod.  The improvement in plate discipline and power look real.  I picked .800-.849.  That looks realistic if he improves his OBP over 300 and hits for some power.  If I had to guess, his slash line will be close to .270/.320/.500.

 

 

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Jagwar said:

@Sports Guy with the sub .700 OPS vote. If my math is correct, Mateo would have to OPS 627 over the next 5 months to average sub 700.  Not impossible for sure.  But it would be a dramatic drop from April. 

The options given don’t give me the range I feel he falls in. I would have him in the 675-725 range.  
 

He had a similar stretch to this, albeit not quite as good, last year for about a month and he still ended up with a sub 650 OPS.

So, I’m calling for him to basically see a 30-75 point improvement, which would be a nice jump.

But hey, maybe he has figured something out and he will be a lot better than that. I just wouldn’t count on it until seeing it.

[Jammer7]

I went with .800-.850, and I think that is somewhat conservative. He is more balanced and athletic in the box. He isn’t pulling off as much, and he is getting to the balls on the outer half with the barrel. Watching his step in 2022, the way he stepped out, drove me nuts. He fixed that. He is staying inside the ball more on the outside pitch, so far, and he is often driving the outside pitch to RF. I hope that he stays with that approach, and not try to do too much. I still see him get around the ball and get pull happy sometimes, but it’s better.

Can he stay healthy? That is the bigger concern for me. He looks like he has gotten stronger, so hopefully he doesn’t wear down like he has done in the past. His stolen bases may not be as high as some might expect at the end of the season, due to the desire to keep him healthier. He hasn’t run as much lately, and I know the hip was an issue. Getting a premium athletic talent consistent MLB at bats with a good coaching environment, and playing a position he is comfortable in, he’s almost a baseball fairy tale right now.

[Jagwar]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The options given don’t give me the range I feel he falls in. I would have him in the 675-725 range.  
 

He had a similar stretch to this, albeit not quite as good, last year for about a month and he still ended up with a sub 650 OPS.

So, I’m calling for him to basically see a 30-75 point improvement, which would be a nice jump.

But hey, maybe he has figured something out and he will be a lot better than that. I just wouldn’t count on it until seeing it.

You just looked so lonely at the top of the poll graphic 

Like I said, it wouldn't be impossible to see a collapse. Maybe he reverts to old habits, maybe pitchers adjust and he doesn't adjust, maybe there's a nagging injury. 

[btdart20]

I was between .800-.849 and .850-.899 and took the conservative side of .800-.849 to anchor my excitement when he beats expectations!

The approach looks quasi-sustainable if he can keep his head on straight.  The muscle/athleticism is certainly a plus, but if his mind isn't right in the box, none of that matters.

[Sports Guy]

I didn’t realize/remember but Mateo also had a good run in July/August of 2021. So, this is the third time in his ML career that he has had a month worth of at bats where he put up far bigger numbers than the rest of his career.

Since 2021, Mateo has had 11 months where he had at least 30 at bats.

Of those 11 months, his OPS was over 800 in 3 of the months(including April 2023..or you could say over 800 twice  and over 1000 once if you prefer). It was over 700 in 2 other months (one was 701), 1 month over 600  and 5 months where his OPS was 566 or worse.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Sports Guy