A look at the Orioles by month - 2023

[Frobby]

March/April 2023

 

19-9 record

9-4 at home

10-5 on the road

4-5 vs. AL East

7-2 in one-run games

1-1 in extra innings

Batting

5.25 runs per game was 4th in the AL

.256 BA was 5th

.335 OBP was 3rd

.426 SLG was 4th

.761 OPS was 4th

1.21 HR/game was 6th

.252/.343/.419 with RISP (291 PA, 234 AB, 59 H, 98 TOB, 98 TB) ( .762 OPS with RISP was 6th in the AL)

Pitching

4.22 ERA was 10th in the AL

4.36 runs allowed per game was 8th

1.07 HR/game was 9th lowest

5.25 starters' ERA was 10th

4.99 IP/Start was 11th

2.76 bullpen ERA was 1st

9 saves was tied for 4th 

14 save opportunities was tied for 4th

5 blown saves was tied for 4th most (but a 5-way tie, so also 6th least)

Defense

5 unearned runs was 2nd fewest in the AL

0.46 errors per game (13 errors) was tied for 8th fewest

-11.4 fangraphs defense was last in the AL

+2.5 UZR was 3rd (-2.9 OF, +5.4 IF)

-14 OAA was last (-4 OF, -10 IF)

+7 Rtot was 5th

-11 Rdrs was 13th (as of May 5)

Conclusion

A good, steady offense and an excellent bullpen, combined with a cushy schedule, led the O's to their 19-9 record.   The starting pitching was spotty.   The defense was really awful the first week of the year, but seemed to settle down after that; the advanced metrics are all over the lot, some saying the defense was above average while other metrics say it was terrible.   The team won a lot of close games, had only one 5+ run margin of victory, and never lost by more than 4.   Overall, we need the starters to improve and go deeper into games if we are to continue to have success in May and beyond.

[Pickles]

A couple thoughts to add:

It's fair to say we won't win like this with a tougher schedule, but the thing is we won't have to.  We're on pace to win like 107 games.  We don't need to keep winning at the rate we are to make the playoffs and have a chance there.

A stat that should be noted is we are leading the AL in BB.  That's huge to me.  That's the orgazational philosophy manifesting.

I myself am curious about the defense/defensive stats.  The outfield that first week was bad.  All of them.  Since then, to the eye, they've played fairly well, even Santander has made several decent plays out there.  Mateo's made an error or two he shouldn't have; Henderson hasn't made too many errors but he hasn't been smooth out there; Frazier and Urias have been at least solid if not much better at 2b, so the IF defense has been pretty solid imo.  UZR has us rated well; OAA has us rated very poorly, and yet they have DIFFERENT reasons for doing so.  It's a real pickle.

[Just Regular]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

-11.4 fangraphs defense was last in the AL

+2.5 UZR was 3rd (-2.9 OF, +5.4 IF)

-14 OAA was last (-4 OF, -10 IF)

+7 Rtot was 5th

-11 Rdrs was 13th (as of May 5)

That looks like all five measures saying - No, the Orioles weren't a Middle Third AL team in defense in April.    They were.....something.

I'm curious to see how things progress - on paper it feels like our group ought to outplay most.

Apart from the strike zone command, the legs in the outfield are some of why I'm keen for Cowser.

The Rays have played all kinds of Bats weaker than Cowser today over the years to keep runs off the board.

Stronger opponents will not give graces for free extra outs the way April's competition did.    

[Frobby]

May 2023

16-12 record

8-8 at home

8-4 on the road

7-2 vs. AL East

3-4 in one-run games

2-2 in extra innings

Batting

4.79 runs per game was tied for 4th in the AL

.248 BA was 7th

.319 OBP was 10th

.416 SLG was 8th

.734 OPS was 8th

1.11 HR/game was tied for 8th

.268/.345/.472 with RISP (287 PA, 246 AB, 66 H, 99 TOB, 114 TB) 

Pitching

4.29 ERA was 10th in the AL

4.69 runs allowed per game was 12th

1.32 HR/game was 12th lowest

4.38 starters' ERA was 9th

5.43 IP/Start was 9th

4.15 bullpen ERA was 9th

9 saves was tied for 3rd

18 save opportunities 

9 blown saves was most in the league

Defense

9 unearned runs was tied for 7th fewest in the AL

0.39 errors per game (11 errors) 

+27.5 fangraphs defense 

+25.4 UZR  (+11.4 OF, +14.0 IF)

+17 OAA  (0 OF, +17 IF)

+5 Rtot 

+11 Rdrs 

Cumulative through May 2023

Batting

5.02 runs per game was 4th in the AL

.252 BA was 6th

.327 OBP was 6th

.421 SLG was 7th

.747 OPS was 6th

1.16 HR/game was 6th

.260/.346/.446 with RISP (578 PA, 480 AB, 125 H, 197 TOB, 214 TB) ( .791 OPS with RISP was 5th in the AL)

Pitching

4.24 ERA was 10th in the AL

4.52 runs allowed per game was 9th

1.20 HR/game was 10th lowest

4.81 starters' ERA was 10th

5.21 IP/Start was 9th

3.49 bullpen ERA was 5th

18 saves was 3rd

32 save opportunities was tied for 1st

14 blown saves was most in the league

Defense

15 unearned runs was  2nd fewest in the AL

0.43 errors per game (24 errors) was 4th fewest

+16.1 fangraphs defense was 4th in the AL

+27.9 UZR was 3rd (+8.5 OF, +19.4 IF)

+3 OAA was 6th (-4 OF, +7 IF)

+12 Rtot was  tied for 5th

0 Rdrs was 10th 

Conclusion

The O's were tied for 4th in runs scored per game in May, despite having mediocre BA/OBP/SLG numbers.   The reason is that the team was excellent with runners in scoring position (.791 OPS with RISP compared to .735 overall for the month).  The starting pitchers made gains in both ERA (4.38 vs. 5.25 in April) and IP/start (5.43 vs. 4.99), though the overall performance remains a tad below average.   The bullpen took a big step back, blowing 9 of 18 save opportunities and posting a 4.15 ERA compared to 2.76 in March/April.   The defense was a huge bright spot, posting strong gains per every advanced metric and now showing as above average overall, with both the infielders and outfielders contributing to the strong month.   Of course, this means the pitching may have looked a bit better than it actually was.

Overall, it was a solid month for the club against strong competition, but some slippage in the BA/OBP/SLG lines (and Mullins now out) and deteriorating bullpen performance is a bit worrisome.   Thankfully, the schedule eases up a bit in June, both in terms of quality of opponent and the number of days off.  Hopefully the team can take advantage.

 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

Obviously the pitching, especially starting pitching needs to get better.  Hard to not be happy with 16-12 when almost every opponent in May is a playoff contender.  I'm hoping that the bullpen blowup vs Cleveland was just a one time stumble for a bullpen that has been very dependable this year. 

[eddie83]

The off days are huge this month. Should be very beneficial to the pitching staff. Going to be hard to score 4.8 rpg plus without Cedric. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, eddie83 said:

The off days are huge this month. Should be very beneficial to the pitching staff. Going to be hard to score 4.8 rpg plus without Cedric. 

I actually don’t like having 6 days off in the same month, because it means there are going to be long stretches of games with no break later in the season. 

[eddie83]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I actually don’t like having 6 days off in the same month, because it means there are going to be long stretches of games with no break later in the season. 

I know. Pay for it later.

The schedule is brutal starting in July. 

[Frobby]

June 2023

13-11 record

8-5 at home

5-6 on the road

3-2 vs. AL East

3-2 in one-run games

1-2 in extra innings

Batting

4.50 runs per game was 6th in the AL

.251 BA was 6th

.309 OBP was 8th

.421 SLG was 5th

.730 OPS was 6th

1.29 HR/game was 6th

.273/.342/.485 with RISP (193 PA, 165 AB, 45 H, 66 TOB, 80 TB) 

Pitching

4.55 ERA was 11th in the AL

4.83 runs allowed per game was 11th

1.29 HR/game was 13th lowest

4.68 starters' ERA was 12th

5.29 IP/Start was 6th

4.36 bullpen ERA was 11th

7 saves was tied for 6th (4-way tie)

9 save opportunities 

2 blown saves 

Defense

8 unearned runs was tied for 6th fewest in the AL

0.38 errors per game (9 errors) 

-29.2 fangraphs defense 

-15.4 UZR  (-12.6 OF, -2.8 IF)

-12 OAA  (-4 OF, +-8 IF)

-10 Rtot 

1 Rdrs 

Cumulative through June 2023

Batting

4.86 runs per game was 4th in the AL

.252 BA was 6th

.321 OBP was 8th

.421 SLG was 5th

.742 OPS was 6th

1.20 HR/game was 6th

.264/.345/.466 with RISP (771 PA, 645 AB, 170 H, 263 TOB, 294 TB) ( .801 OPS with RISP was 4th in the AL)

Pitching

4.33 ERA was 10th in the AL

4.61 runs allowed per game was 10th

1.23 HR/game was 10th lowest

4.77 starters' ERA was 10th

5.23 IP/Start was 6th

3.74 bullpen ERA was 7th

25 saves was tied for 4th

41 save opportunities was tied for 3rd

16 blown saves was tied for most in the league (4-way tie)

Defense

23 unearned runs was  4th fewest in the AL

0.41 errors per game (33 errors) was fewest

-13.0 fangraphs defense was 13th in the AL

+12.5 UZR was 3rd (-4.1 OF, +16.6 IF)

-12 OAA was 13th (-4 OF, -8 IF)

+2 Rtot was 10th

+1 Rdrs was 11th 

Conclusion

June wasn't a terrible month (13-11), but it was a bit disappointing, especially closing with three straight losses.  The offense was decent in most categories, but a drop in OBP led to a drop in runs/game (still slightly above average for the month), despite another month of strong RISP hitting.   The pitching was well below league average, with the bullpen having a poor month despite blowing only 2 saves in 9 chances; simply put, they let a lot of games we were losing already get out of hand.  The standard metrics say the defense was good in June, while most of the advanced metrics say we were very bad.   So, defense may have contributed to the lackluster pitching numbers.  

[Baltimorecuse]

Thanks for the work on that summary.

[foxfield]

Thanks @Frobby. Numbers are skewed some by the terrible performances in games we were already losing. But it’s interesting that just a slight improvement in 1 run games and/or extra innings would have left us in pretty strong shape. 
 

This is still a good team but not a complete team. Room for improvement and improvement will be needed because teams are stacked up behind us ready to pounce. 
 

It sucks to stink but it is a constant stomach churn to be in the mix. I am thoroughly enjoying the success but my ticker…not as much. Lol. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Is June just a blip on the radar, a bump in the road or a return to the mean of who this team really is or the beginning of a long slump?

[Frobby]

Just in case anyone is sick of reading trade deadline chatter.

July 2023

17-9 record

7-4 at home

10-5 on the road

8-4 vs. AL East

7-1 in one-run games

2-2 in extra innings

Batting

4.85 runs per game was 5th in the AL

.241 BA was 10th

.304 OBP was 11th

.412 SLG was 10th

.716 OPS was 9th

1.08 HR/game was tied for 10th

.323/.378/.569 with RISP (230 PA, 195 AB, 63 H, 87 TOB, 111 TB) 

Pitching

3.61 ERA was 3rd in the AL

3.69 runs allowed per game was 3rd

0.92 HR/game was 2nd lowest

3.63 starters' ERA was 3rd

5.63 IP/Start was 3rd

3.59 bullpen ERA was 4th

10 saves was 2nd

17 save opportunities 

7 blown saves 

Defense

3 unearned runs was tied for 3rd fewest in the AL

0.35 errors per game (9 errors) 

-0.1 fangraphs defense 

-0.1 UZR  (-2.5 OF, +2.4 IF)

0 OAA  (+1 OF, -1 IF)

+1 Rtot 

+4 Rdrs 

Cumulative through July 2023

Batting

4.86 runs per game was 5th in the AL

.249 BA was 8th

.317 OBP was 7th

.419 SLG was 6th

.736 OPS was 6th

1.16 HR/game was 8th

.277/.354/.482 with RISP (1001 PA, 840 AB, 233 H, 350 TOB, 405 TB) ( .836 OPS with RISP was 2nd in the AL)

Pitching

4.15 ERA was 8th in the AL

4.39 runs allowed per game was 9th

1.15 HR/game was 5th lowest

4.48 starters' ERA was 8th

5.33 IP/Start was 7th

3.71 bullpen ERA was 6th

35 saves was 2nd

58 save opportunities was 1st

23 blown saves was tied for most in the league 

Defense

26 unearned runs was  4th fewest in the AL

0.40 errors per game (42 errors) was 2nd lowest

-12.9 fangraphs defense was 13th in the AL

+12.4 UZR was 3rd (-6.6 OF, +19.0 IF)

-12 OAA was 13th (-3 OF, -9 IF)

+3 Rtot was tied for 7th

+5 Rdrs was 11th 

Conclusion

July was a great month, with O's going 17-9 in a month where they faced only teams with winning records and played 15 of 26 games on the road.   The offensive "fundamentals" (BA/OBP/SLG) were all a bit weak in July, but the team made up for it with tremendous RISP hitting, posting an incredible .947 OPS for the month in those situations.   While that is pleasing, it's definitely not sustainable and we'll need to see the "fundamentals" improve in August to keep scoring runs.   The pitching was spectacutar in July, with the starters posting the third-best ERA in the league and throwing the third-most innings per start.  The bullpen was solid on an aggregate basis, but the middle relief was very shaky, as shown by the 7 blown saves, most of which did not result in losses due to the reslilence of the offense late in games.   Felix Bautista bouyed the pen by not allowing a run all month and converting all 8 of his save opportunities while also winning 3 games himself.   Defensively, the standard metrics has the O's well above average, making only 9 errors (4 of which occurred in one game against the Dodgers) and allowing only 3 unearned runs all month.  The advanced metrics pretty much uniformly marked us as average for the month.   Anyway, the O's won a ton of close games and really boosted their playoff chances by beating a steady diet of winning teams, including those in the AL East.  Great month and we can only hope that August will be similar.

Edited September 1, 2023 by Frobby

[Hallas]

Why does it feel like we played like dog at times despite the fact that we went 17-9?  Baseball is funny.

[Frobby]

August 2023

18-9 record

10-5 at home

8-4 on the road

4-2 vs. AL East

4-2 in one-run games

3-1 in extra innings

Batting

5.48 runs per game was 4h in the AL

.278 BA was 4th

.332 OBP was 5th

.448 SLG was 6th

.781 OPS was 6th

1.19 HR/game was tied for 10th

.293/.341/.471 with RISP (261 PA, 225 AB, 66 H, 89 TOB, 106 TB) 

Pitching

3.59 ERA was 4th in the AL

3.78 runs allowed per game was 3rd lowest

0.96 HR/game was lowest

3.98 starters' ERA was 6th

5.78 IP/Start was 1st

2.90 bullpen ERA was 3rd

7 saves was tied for 9th

10 save opportunities 

3 blown saves 

Defense

5 unearned runs was tied for fewest in the AL (3-way tie)

0.37 errors per game (10 errors) 

+0.5 fangraphs defense 

+6.2 UZR  (+0.2 OF, +6.0 IF)

+1 OAA  

+14 Rtot 

+20 Rdrs 

Cumulative through August 2023

Batting

4.98 runs per game was 4th in the AL

.255 BA was 6th

.320 OBP was 8th

.425 SLG was 6th

.745 OPS was 6th

1.17 HR/game was 9th

.281/.352/.480 with RISP (1262 PA, 1065 AB, 299 H, 439 TOB, 511 TB) ( .832 OPS with RISP was 1st in the AL)

Pitching

4.04 ERA was 8th in the AL

4.26 runs allowed per game was 7th

1.11 HR/game was 4th lowest

4.37 starters' ERA was 8th

5.42 IP/Start was 6th

3.56 bullpen ERA was 5th

42 saves was 2nd

68 save opportunities was 1st

26 blown saves was tied for most in the league (4 way tie)

Defense

31 unearned runs was tied for 3rd fewest in the AL

0.39 errors per game (52 errors) was 2nd lowest

-12.4 fangraphs defense was 12th in the AL

+18.6 UZR was 2nd (-6.6 OF, +25.0 IF)

-11 OAA was 12th 

+25 Rtot was 5th

+25 Rdrs was tied for 5th

Conclusion

The Orioles were humming on all cylinders in August, 4th in runs/game, 3rd in fewest runs allowed per game, and above average on defense by all measures.   Offensively, 5.48 runs/game was our best month of the year.  The O's continued to hit very well with runners in scoring position, but unlike July, they weren't overly reliant on RISP hitting, posting above average numbers in all slash line categories.   On the pitching side, 3.59 ERA was also the best month of the year (3.78 runs allowed/game was second best), and both the starters and the bullpen were very good.  Defensively, the advanced metrics had us from great (Rdrs, Rtot, UZR) to slightly above average (OAA, Fangraphs defense), while the standard metrics were very good.   Overall, the schedule was a lot weaker in August than in July, so perhaps good results were to be expected, but I will take an 18-9 month with numbers like this any day.   On to September!

Edited September 1, 2023 by Frobby