A Realistic Pitching Ace And What It Will Take to Acquire Him

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I agree with all that. It'll be a huge missed opportunity if we don't see a deadline deal or two for top talent. Just pointing out that it's not as good to be a buyer when there are lots of other buyers competing for that asset— and we may be looking at that sort of market for SPs this summer. 

If that’s the case then so be it. Nobody can afford what we can. Not even the Dodgers.

If we had to give up something that no else could/would do like 3 top 100 prospects, we would still have 6 left.

[Billy F-Face3]

Dylan Cease is not an Ace in my opinion. He's more like a solid #2. The Orioles have roughed him up twice within several months counting last season.

That said, I do agree with the sentiment that we need a #1 and we should explore all avenues to get that reliable and consistent #1. Means is coming off Tommy John Surgery and hasn't played baseball in over a year, so it would not be realistic or fair to just assume he will instantly return back to the pitcher he was when he threw a no hitter. He needs to be able to return to the rotation with as little pressure on him as possible, so he can transition smoothly back into the pitcher he was and is. (And that will take repetition and strength building.(

Just as a side note, I am encouraged with DL Hall's performance today for Norfolk. He pitched 5 shutout innings and struck out a significant number of batters.

But yeah, the Orioles need to get an Ace. And it would be nice to protect the farm as much as possible because the last thing you want to do is sell the entire farm for a guy who might only be moderately good for a few months and then either be gone or be bad.

The Orioles have to negotiate a trade that works for both teams and can help keep their long term plan to dominate MLB in tact. They have a 10 year window to win some World Series. They aren't going to forfeit that by trading away the farm. But they should at least try to unclog some bottlenecks in the system and get that top pitcher that can help put them over the hump now.

[Can_of_corn]

54 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Dylan Cease is not an Ace in my opinion. He's more like a solid #2. The Orioles have roughed him up twice within several months counting last season.

 

Who is an Ace in your opinion?

Any of them going to be on the market?

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Don’t get me wrong, I love Grayson’s talent/potential. But he is a ways away from putting up a 2.20 ERA like Cease did last year my friend.

Cease does not come without questions and his high walk rate this year is a concern. But he is MUCH better than anything we have currently. His bad beginning to this year, would still be better than our best starting pitcher this year. 

If Grayson has a year like Cease had last year, I would consider him a success beyond what I hoped for.  When was the last time an O's pitcher had a year like that?  Bedard and before that Mussina?  That's 2 seasons in 30 years.

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

If Grayson has a year like Cease had last year, I would consider him a success beyond what I hoped for.  When was the last time an O's pitcher had a year like that?  Bedard and before that Mussina?  That's 2 seasons in 30 years.

Sydney Ponson had a pretty good year. But that was candle that burned out quickly just like Bedard.

 

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who is an Ace in your opinion?

Any of them going to be on the market?

After today I wouldn't be surprised if Max Fried was on the market like he was rumored to be this past off season. Before I answer your 2nd question, I'll answer your 1st question about my opinion on who is the types of pitchers who I consider an potential #1 starter in the rotation, just to say what type of player I like (In no particular order, and based on their prime years)...

 

Sandy Alcantara

Clayton Kershaw

Shohei Ohtani

Max Sherzer

Justin Verlander (although too far at the end of his career and up in age by this point)

Corbin Burnes

Max Fried

Zac Gallen (Maybe #1, Maybe #2)

Framber Valdez (Borderline #1)

Spencer Strider

Of the group, only Burnes and Fried have been linked to rumors of potentially being available for a trade due to Arbitration issues. And Burnes hasn't had a very Ace-like start to this season. (I would put him on par with Cease because of it. I like consistency, and they've both had their share mistake games.) The more I dig into the details of Burnes, the more I'm thinking it could be a buyer beware situation.

I haven't heard any rumors about Cease being a trade candidate for any reason.

I'm also very self aware that Orioles front office is a lot smarter than me at identifying a potential ace, whom they would want to acquire to help win a championship. Well, I would think so, at least. (I can't help but remember how much I was extremely against the signing of Ubaldo Jimenez because I thought he was a 1 hit wonder. When he signed, I couldn't understand why they were paying such a big contract when the guy had never been consistently good in his entire career. He struggled and the team wasted their money. They blew it all on a guy who was a #4-5 starter at best when you looked outside of that one year. It still bothers me to this day. That was a different front office regime.)

[sevastras]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Don’t get me wrong, I love Grayson’s talent/potential. But he is a ways away from putting up a 2.20 ERA like Cease did last year my friend.

Cease is a long way from putting up a 2.20 ERA like last year, as well. Ubaldo Jiménez had a 2.88 ERA one year for Colorado. He was at 1.83 through June, pretty sure we all know how the rest of his career developed. 
Im not saying he is going to Cease(pun) to be good, but I am not giving up Henderson or Holliday for him. 

[royalstillman]

The front office identified the need for 2 starters this off season.They went out and fetched Gibson and Irvin.Not the moves to push us to the top.At best,lateral moves.The inability to identify and get a top of the rotation arm leaves Elias with an incomplete grade at this point.While the start of the season has been terrific,it just can't be denied the starting staff at present isn't good enough to make a deep playoff push.The offense has carried the team up until now.They will inevitably cool off at times.During the course of 162 games,good pitching prevails,and we're not there yet,imo. Will we get there?That remains to be seen.It could've been done this past winter and wasn't. Still waiting.

[Bahama O's Fan]

In another thread, it was asked if Mateo and Urias can be long term answers (at least a couple of years) on the O's infield. If so believe they can be, you can trade from the glut of infielders in AAA, get a top tier pitcher and compete during Adley's years of control with us. 

[geschinger]

I think it is too early to identify potential additions at this point.  The type of move (if Elias is allowed to spend)  I would expect if the team is in a similar position in July that they are in now would be to target decent but expensive pitchers at the end of their contracts or with an additional year or two left max.  

It makes little sense to both give up a big haul and then have to sign a pitcher to what is almost certainly going to end up requiring a contract that has little chance of being anything other than a huge mistake.  If the haul required to make the trade is less because it is essentially a salary dump, then having them for only a short time is a reasonable use of resources.

[geschinger]

13 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

In another thread, it was asked if Mateo and Urias can be long term answers (at least a couple of years) on the O's infield. If so believe they can be, you can trade from the glut of infielders in AAA, get a top tier pitcher and compete during Adley's years of control with us. 

The smarter move IMO is to trade a Mateo at the height of his value to a team in contention that is desperate for a SS and plug in one of the talented young guys.  The risk is they take a while to acclimate but once they do seems likely to me they will perform as well if not better than what I expect Mateo will produce over a full season. I suspect his offensive production so far is an aberration and not his new normal and I would see if I can take advantage of that.

[Bahama O's Fan]

16 minutes ago, geschinger said:

The smarter move IMO is to trade a Mateo at the height of his value to a team in contention that is desperate for a SS and plug in one of the talented young guys.  The risk is they take a while to acclimate but once they do seems likely to me they will perform as well if not better than what I expect Mateo will produce over a full season. I suspect his offensive production so far is an aberration and not his new normal and I would see if I can take advantage of that.

I guess that depends on whether management views Mateo's production as an aberration or him "coming around"

[geschinger]

8 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I guess that depends on whether management views Mateo's production as an aberration or him "coming around"

Definitely - they might have other metrics or something that predicts this is not an aberration.  I remember there was about a stretch last year where he was his offense was excellent over 80-100ABs and then he regressed to what he's always been.  With the limited info I have available to me as a fan, I've not seen anything that convinces me this is not a similar stretch that just happens to be at the beginning of the year instead of later in the year.  

[DocJJ]

Maybe not quite an Ace, but a "Near-Ace" we should make every effort to obtain:

 

Eduardo Rodriguez.  Lefty, playoff experience, having a great year (for a terrible team).  Problem is the Tigers probably want a King's ransom for him....

[Dunk35]

7 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

Maybe not quite an Ace, but a "Near-Ace" we should make every effort to obtain:

 

Eduardo Rodriguez.  Lefty, playoff experience, having a great year (for a terrible team).  Problem is the Tigers probably want a King's ransom for him....

The Tigers would be over .500 if they hadn't played us 8 times already. That division is terrible so I don't think they are going to deal assests so early in the season.

[Just Regular]

2020 draft challenge trade showdown - we would trade Kjerstad and Mayo for Strider and Elder, right?

One pair of those guys pulled about $7mm in bonuses, the other about 20% of that.     Three years of pro performance have ensued.

Elder getting the Tuesday Sunday accelerated turn so they can rest Charlie Morton over a week wasn't something I expected going into the series.     Elder was the 2020 college arm they picked right next to Strider.