A "What If" scenario: The Chris Davis contract and its impact at 1st base for the O's

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Going into the first few days of 2016, the Orioles had a potential decision to make: What do they do with slugging first baseman Chris Davis, who was suspended at the end of the 2014 season for the MLB drug test, who then led the league in both home runs and strike outs in 2015? What do they do with Christian Walker, who was on the 40 man roster and had only gotten 13 games in the MLB the last two seasons, but barely hitting over .100 at the time?

Obviously, you sign Davis to the largest contract in team history. Nothing can go wrong with that, right? Right?

 

Well…

 

The Orioles opened up the budget, signing Davis to a team record 7 year, $161 million dollar contract, where he went on to hit 38 home runs (8^th in the MLB) and striking out a league leading 219 times (32.9% of his at bats). Walker would invest in a nice house in Norfolk and spend the season there, only coming to Baltimore for Fan Fest, before being designated for assignment just prior to the 2017 season, bouncing from Atlanta to Cincinnati to Arizona.

In 2017, Davis went on to slug 27 home runs and strike out 195 times (third highest in the American League), but at a rate of 37.2% of the time (leading the majors.) Walker would spend the entire 2017 in Reno, which is the AAA team for Arizona. Enjoying the Pacific Coast League launch pad, Walker his .309 with 32 home runs and earning the MVP title for the season. He got a few games with Arizona that season, hitting .250 with 2 home runs. Both ranked the same when it came to fielding stats and metrics.

In 2018, Davis started the season hitting .150 and amassing 86 strike outs in the first 57 games, leading to him getting benched. He never picked it up, finishing the season with a .168 average, 16 home runs, 192 strike outs (4^th best) in 128 games. He struck out a league leading 36.8% and had a 21 at bat hitless streak to end the season. That wouldn’t last, right? Walker slowed down a bit, hitting .299 with 18 home runs in AAA, getting some more time in Arizona to the tune of only .163 with 3 home runs in 34 games, but showing some good defense and never really getting a chance with Paul Goldschmidt holding down the first base bag.

In 2019, multiple things happened. Davis set a MLB record by keeping his hitless streak going, finally ending it after 54 at bats. It didn’t get much better, as Davis hit only .179 with 12 home runs and 139 strike outs. Davis also got into a verbal and almost physical confrontation with Manager Brandon Hyde, something that was captured on camera in the dugout during the broadcast. Walker, meanwhile, won the starting first baseman job for Arizona and enjoyed it. Hitting .259 with 29 home runs, Walker also showed off the glove, leading all of the National League first baseman with 9 defensive runs saved and 139 assists, which was tops in the entire MLB first baseman.

2020 rolled around and the season got shortened due to the pandemic. Davis played in only 16 games, hit .115 with no home runs then stepped in the infamous “Ubaldo pothole,” citing a knee injury with his season ending. Walker ended up with a .271 average with 7 home runs. Ryan Mountcastle will enter the chat here and enjoying a .333 average and 5 home runs for his debut season. However, Mountcastle spent more time in the outfield than at first.

2021, Davis starts off the season with a back injury, which turns into hip surgery, which then leads to his retirement. Walker, meanwhile, hit .244 with 10 home runs, missing some time with an injury himself. Mountcastle spent more time at first (thank God) and slugged .333 with 33 home runs (he likes “3” apparently.)

2022, Davis is on his “Bobby Bonilla Day” celebration status, while Walker goes on for a .242 average and 36 home runs, with 78 assists and 5 errors. Mountcastle hit .250 with 22 home runs at a revamped Camden Yards, but kept up with Walker on defense with 74 assists and 5 errors.

It is funny how a simple “cause and effect” came into play here. While the Orioles went “all in” with Davis and booted Walker out, Walker didn’t swim right away. But what would have happened in 2018? Instead of calling up Corban Joseph (which was more of a “feel good” story with Caleb), what if they still had Walker and he started to show some a preview of his upcoming 2019 season? Would Mountcastle have been wandering around the outfield for a little longer before Hyde burned his glove and told him he was DH and if he saw him in the field, he would be fined?

More importantly, what would have happened with the money the Orioles paid Davis? Larger contracts have since gone wayside in Baltimore, but if they had spent the money on other things and not still paying Davis to this day, how much different would the roster look? Even today, there are questions about Mountcastle at first. If the Orioles had kept Walker, would he have sealed that area for a few extra years and taken away a question mark there, providing some much needed stability?

The world may never know.

 

[AnythingO's]

OK, nobody else is venturing in so let me play ( from old, impaired memory). I'll further complicate matters as I was one of the few to vote against the Davis contract. What if the O's didn't win the last 3 against NYY in 2000 so they "COULD" have drafted Tex vs TEX? In 2008 when he was a FA, PA, in DIRECT competition with the hated NYY, would have opened the checkbook further (the "MEGA" offer that never came)(can't remember what we called it). Tex would have retired an O's Legend and be in line for the next bronze statue, revered in MD like Cal. Buck NEVER would have needed to bring Davis from TEX, at FREAKING ALL!!!  Tex is on our side in 2012 so we DON'T lose to the hated NYY in 2012 ALCS. The STUPID Davis contract crap never happens (revisionist history, I know), Walker gets a chance here. 

[Can_of_corn]

I think they play Trumbo at First and nothing much changes aside from ownership benefiting from a lower payroll.

Maybe the O's never give Mancini a fair shake?

[Legend_Of_Joey]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think they play Trumbo at First and nothing much changes aside from ownership benefiting from a lower payroll.

Maybe the O's never give Mancini a fair shake?

Trumbo only had 2 full season at first base, last playing in 2013. He was being sent to the outfield and penned in for "DH" at that point.

Mancini is an interesting question. He came up in 17, then full time in 18. Could that have lead to Mountcastle being trade bait?

[Legend_Of_Joey]

15 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

OK, nobody else is venturing in so let me play ( from old, impaired memory). I'll further complicate matters as I was one of the few to vote against the Davis contract. What if the O's didn't win the last 3 against NYY in 2000 so they "COULD" have drafted Tex vs TEX? In 2008 when he was a FA, PA, in DIRECT competition with the hated NYY, would have opened the checkbook further (the "MEGA" offer that never came)(can't remember what we called it). Tex would have retired an O's Legend and be in line for the next bronze statue, revered in MD like Cal. Buck NEVER would have needed to bring Davis from TEX, at FREAKING ALL!!!  Tex is on our side in 2012 so we DON'T lose to the hated NYY in 2012 ALCS. The STUPID Davis contract crap never happens (revisionist history, I know), Walker gets a chance here. 

Texiera had Scott Boras as his agent, even for the draft. Would Peter have entertained that?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Trumbo only had 2 full season at first base, last playing in 2013. He was being sent to the outfield and penned in for "DH" at that point.

Mancini is an interesting question. He came up in 17, then full time in 18. Could that have lead to Mountcastle being trade bait?

I think Trumbo was signed to replace Davis.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Texiera had Scott Boras as his agent, even for the draft. Would Peter have entertained that?

They picked Wieters and Arrieta.

[Aristotelian]

Just looking back at that free agent class, what a terrible group that was. Lots of ways we could have gone wrong spending money on other players besides Davis. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/2015-16-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

 

[jdwilde1]

11 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

OK, nobody else is venturing in so let me play ( from old, impaired memory). I'll further complicate matters as I was one of the few to vote against the Davis contract. What if the O's didn't win the last 3 against NYY in 2000 so they "COULD" have drafted Tex vs TEX? In 2008 when he was a FA, PA, in DIRECT competition with the hated NYY, would have opened the checkbook further (the "MEGA" offer that never came)(can't remember what we called it). Tex would have retired an O's Legend and be in line for the next bronze statue, revered in MD like Cal. Buck NEVER would have needed to bring Davis from TEX, at FREAKING ALL!!!  Tex is on our side in 2012 so we DON'T lose to the hated NYY in 2012 ALCS. The STUPID Davis contract crap never happens (revisionist history, I know), Walker gets a chance here. 

Well, had the O’s not traded Eddie Murray for for Juan Bell, Brian Holton and Ken Howell back on December 4, 1988 the O’s probably win the division in 1989, ride the momentum to an upset win over Oakland in the ALCS, and win the World Series over the Giants.  Moreover, with Murray still in the orange and black there would have been no need to trade Steve Finley, Pete Harnisch and Curt Schilling for Glenn Davis in January 1991.  As a result, the O’s would have dominated the 1990s with a rotation headlined by Mussina and Schilling. As a result of the O’s success and popularity, the Expos never move to DC, and the Orioles go on to be one of the most successful and highest spending teams in MLB history.  Mussina would have never been a Yankee and  the Red Sox would still be haunted by the Curse of the Bambino since they were never able to get over the hump with the O’s being so dominant.

By my calculations, the Murray trade has cost the O’s about a dozen World Series titles to date.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Trumbo was signed to replace Davis.

If that's the case, we might still have gotten Mancini and Walker, just at a discount.

Trumbo = Davis

Mancini = Trumbo

Walker = Mancini

[Aristotelian]

10 minutes ago, jdwilde1 said:

Well, had the O’s not traded Eddie Murray for for Juan Bell, Brian Holton and Ken Howell back on December 4, 1988 the O’s probably win the division in 1989, ride the momentum to an upset win over Oakland in the ALCS, and win the World Series over the Giants.  Moreover, with Murray still in the orange and black there would have been no need to trade Steve Finley, Pete Harnisch and Curt Schilling for Glenn Davis in January 1991.  As a result, the O’s would have dominated the 1990s with a rotation headlined by Mussina and Schilling. As a result of the O’s success and popularity, the Expos never move to DC, and the Orioles go on to be one of the most successful and highest spending teams in MLB history.  Mussina would have never been a Yankee and  the Red Sox would still be haunted by the Curse of the Bambino since they were never able to get over the hump with the O’s being so dominant.

By my calculations, the Murray trade has cost the O’s about a dozen World Series titles to date.

I'd be happy with a do over just on the Glenn Davis trade. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

44 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Trumbo was signed to replace Davis.

I'm in agreement Duquette was planning on Trumbo to be starting 1B in 2016 until Angelos intervened to resign Davis.

[Gurgi]

24 minutes ago, jdwilde1 said:

Well, had the O’s not traded Eddie Murray for for Juan Bell, Brian Holton and Ken Howell back on December 4, 1988 the O’s probably win the division in 1989, ride the momentum to an upset win over Oakland in the ALCS, and win the World Series over the Giants.  Moreover, with Murray still in the orange and black there would have been no need to trade Steve Finley, Pete Harnisch and Curt Schilling for Glenn Davis in January 1991.  As a result, the O’s would have dominated the 1990s with a rotation headlined by Mussina and Schilling. As a result of the O’s success and popularity, the Expos never move to DC, and the Orioles go on to be one of the most successful and highest spending teams in MLB history.  Mussina would have never been a Yankee and  the Red Sox would still be haunted by the Curse of the Bambino since they were never able to get over the hump with the O’s being so dominant.

By my calculations, the Murray trade has cost the O’s about a dozen World Series titles to date.

You sir are cruel to go this route.  The pain you cause me is intense.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

32 minutes ago, jdwilde1 said:

Well, had the O’s not traded Eddie Murray for for Juan Bell, Brian Holton and Ken Howell back on December 4, 1988 the O’s probably win the division in 1989, ride the momentum to an upset win over Oakland in the ALCS, and win the World Series over the Giants.  Moreover, with Murray still in the orange and black there would have been no need to trade Steve Finley, Pete Harnisch and Curt Schilling for Glenn Davis in January 1991.  As a result, the O’s would have dominated the 1990s with a rotation headlined by Mussina and Schilling. As a result of the O’s success and popularity, the Expos never move to DC, and the Orioles go on to be one of the most successful and highest spending teams in MLB history.  Mussina would have never been a Yankee and  the Red Sox would still be haunted by the Curse of the Bambino since they were never able to get over the hump with the O’s being so dominant.

By my calculations, the Murray trade has cost the O’s about a dozen World Series titles to date.

 

[Billy F-Face3]

Davis set off red flags for me even before they signed him. He had a sudden inexplicable spike in production until you saw how he failed his drug test. And he did it all during a contract year. 

For me it was clear as day that he was cheating and got off his PED once he got paid so that he would stop getting suspended. 

This situation was exacerbated by the fact the Orioles didn't know what to do with him and didn't have a clear plan at his position. The fact that they let it get to his free agency year, and didn't have any other good options, dug them a hole that they are still digging out of. 

I hope they learnt the lesson not to put themselves in that pressure situation. Have a clear plan A and plan B and plan C for the position. Don't let a player hold you up for franchise crippling money in a contract year because you failed to plan ahead. It's better to extend young stars well ahead of schedule to team friendly deals than it is to wait until the last second to be out-leveraged by a player's agent.