If you were Adley, what contract terms would you agree to today if offered?

[owknows]

My offer is this... Nothing.

Trade him in the off season going into his out year... replace him with the best of Basallo/Willems/Hernandez

Restock the farm. Keep the conveyor belt full.

Lather, rinse, repeat

[Billy F-Face3]

The conundrum with extending Adley is his age. He's 25, and if Joe Mauer is able to provide us with any clue, a Catcher is likely to start to decline in his age 32 season. Catcher's have shorter careers than most other positions. I was a huge fan of Ivan Rodriguez, but by his mid 30s he wasn't the same elite player that he was before.

All of this is to say that alot of foresight and planning must go into the considerations to extend a player such as Adley. The fact is that the Orioles have team control up through Adley's age 29 season and Adley is scheduled to be a free agent in his age 30 season. This timing complicates things.

Also to make things complicated is the fact that relationships with players are often spoiled in the arbitration process, so it might be wise to extend Adley up through his age 32 season and buy out 2 or 3 years of free agency.  If there's an impass and Adley won't take it or wants more years, the Orioles should front load the money so that if anything happens in the final years of the contract, it won't be as much of a hindrance to operate the team.

Otherwise, the only course action from the status quo is for the team to try to do everything within their power during Arbitration to make Adley satisfied while they have team control. Don't let the arbitration process damage their relationship with him.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

The conundrum with extending Adley is his age. He's 25, and if Joe Mauer is able to provide us with any clue, a Catcher is likely to start to decline in his age 32 season. Catcher's have shorter careers than most other positions. I was a huge fan of Ivan Rodriguez, but by his mid 30s he wasn't the same elite player that he was before.

All of this is to say that alot of foresight and planning must go into the considerations to extend a player such as Adley. The fact is that the Orioles have team control up through Adley's age 29 season and Adley is scheduled to be a free agent in his age 30 season. This timing complicates things.

Also to make things complicated is the fact that relationships with players are often spoiled in the arbitration process, so it might be wise to extend Adley up through his age 32 season and buy out 2 or 3 years of free agency.  If there's an impass and Adley won't take it or wants more years, the Orioles should front load the money so that if anything happens in the final years of the contract, it won't be as much of a hindrance to operate the team.

Otherwise, the only course action from the status quo is for the team to try to do everything within their power during Arbitration to make Adley satisfied while they have team control. Don't let the arbitration process damage their relationship with him.

I’m having this sense of deja vu…I wonder why?  

From the team’s standpoint, locking Adley up to 32 or so would be ideal.  But if I’m Adley, I’m not doing that.  I’ll play to age 29 and then sell some team on paying me until I’m 35-36.   

[Billy F-Face3]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m having this sense of deja vu…I wonder why?  

LOL

[SemperFi]

First before getting to terms I want a committment that ownership will spend what it takes to be competitive in the AL East. 

Without that It's not in my best career interests to stay here.

[NCRaven]

They appear to be competitive in the AL East with the current budget.  

[Jagwar]

5 hours ago, SemperFi said:

First before getting to terms I want a committment that ownership will spend what it takes to be competitive in the AL East. 

Without that It's not in my best career interests to stay here.

You do realize he plays for a team owned by the Angelos family right? 

[Mr-splash]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m having this sense of deja vu…I wonder why?  

From the team’s standpoint, locking Adley up to 32 or so would be ideal.  But if I’m Adley, I’m not doing that.  I’ll play to age 29 and then sell some team on paying me until I’m 35-36.   

Adley will probably still be producing similarly to what he is now at 29. Hell, he may even be more productive by that point. It wouldn't be that unlikely. So if I'm him I would want to play out my pre arb years. OBP guys age like wine. Goldschmidt won league MVP last year at 35. If Adley was a high average, low walk rate speedster I'd be very skeptical of a deal keeping him past age 31 or so. So he has the player profile to maintain production into his 30s. The only problem is being a catcher the knees only have so many miles on them. He may have to eventually move to 1B in his 30s. But the bat will stay be plus at 1B.

[SemperFi]

6 hours ago, NCRaven said:

They appear to be competitive in the AL East with the current budget.  

Ssssh-please don't tell JA, he's busy playing with his model of the new entertainment district.  He's got cars and little people too!!

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, yark14 said:

Worst case scenario, he makes a fine first baseman when he gets into his mid 30's.  Pay him whatever cash and contract length it takes to lock him up.

That is not the worst case scenario 

[Sports Guy]

Because of COVID and because the Os took too long to get Adley up here, he was robbed of at least 1 ML year early in his career.  That’s big for him especially since he was a college guy to begin with.

Couple that with the idea that he is a catcher and he is basically has 1 chance at a major contract. So, does he take that chance now and sign or does he wait?

What is he worth once he becomes a FA?  He knows if he stays healthy that he will get 40-45M or so over the next 4 years. Of course, if he ends being a super 2, this could change. 
 

His first FA year will be played at age 30.  Right now, he has a ton of value as a catcher. How long does that last to the point where the Os or some other team plays him at first or DH for half the season or more?  I question if his bat will be good enough for first in his 30s. It may be but if I had to guess, it won’t be much better than Mountcastle. Maybe higher OBP but lower slugging..but OPS around 800 give or take. That’s probably good enough for the position but not good enough to pay 30-35M To.

So, he either signs a deal now or he waits until 30.  Will he be able to get a 4-5 year for 120-150M a year at age 30?  It’s possible but I think it’s a huge risk. Getting that money now guarantees it for him.

Tough spot. 

 

Edited May 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[geschinger]

8 years / 160m but I'd be willing to pay quite a bit more to stay at 8 years and lock in his entire prime without saddling the team with the decline years.

I just don't think it makes sense for Adley if he's willing to bet on himself.  He needs to be a FA with at least a couple of his prime years as part of the package to max out a deal and make huge money into his mid 30s.  Being a C I don't see anyone giving him contracts that go into the late 30s.

[Mr-splash]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because of COVID and because the Os took too long to get Adley up here, he was robbed of at least 1 ML year early in his career.  That’s big for him especially since he was a college guy to begin with.

Couple that with the idea that he is a catcher and he is basically has 1 chance at a major contract. So, does he take that chance now and sign or does he wait?

What is he worth once he becomes a FA?  He knows if he stays healthy that he will get 40-45M or so over the next 4 years. Of course, if he ends being a super 2, this could change. 
 

His first FA year will be played at age 30.  Right now, he has a ton of value as a catcher. How long does that last to the point where the Os or some other team plays him at first or DH for half the season or more?  I question if his bat will be good enough for first in his 30s. It may be but if I had to guess, it won’t be much better than Mountcastle. Maybe higher OBP but lower slugging..but OPS around 800 give or take. That’s probably good enough for the position but not good enough to pay 30-35M To.

So, he either signs a deal now or he waits until 30.  Will he be able to get a 4-5 year for 120-150M a year at age 30?  It’s possible but I think it’s a huge risk. Getting that money now guarantees it for him.

Tough spot. 

 

 

Ryan Mountcastle has been a league average hitter in 2023. Adley has been solidly above average. You're basically saying Adley's hitting is going to decline in his early to mid 30s drastically. Not going to happen. Adley is an OBP guy. The most important stat in baseball is OBP. There is a ton of value in not making outs. You only get 27.

[Just Regular]

7 hours ago, SemperFi said:

First before getting to terms I want a committment that ownership will spend what it takes to be competitive in the AL East. 

Without that It's not in my best career interests to stay here.

With one measly $10mm spend on Kyle Gibson, Elias has made it to the meta game where he's conducting the billion dollar negotiation with maybe two and hopefully four franchise type guys.

Next major project milestone - composition of Aug-Sep roster.

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

 

Ryan Mountcastle has been a league average hitter in 2023. Adley has been solidly above average. You're basically saying Adley's hitting is going to decline in his early to mid 30s drastically. Not going to happen. Adley is an OBP guy. The most important stat in baseball is OBP. There is a ton of value in not making outs. You only get 27.

Lol. So he is going to buck most historical trends for players, much less catchers?

Its possible but acting as if it’s a fact is foolish at best.