Rodriguez's "stuff"

[maybenxtyr]

We have seen many pitchers come up and dominate that maybe were not expected to. 

 

We've seen many pitchers come up and not dominate that maybe were expected to.

 

Usually though, the ones that should dominate that didn't ultimately get on track. I always remind myself of Roy Halladay... especially with top shelf guys. 1998 and 99 he had some success, both starting and relieving but once the starters workload became the norm in 2000 he wasn't very good. Everyone knows what he did after that reset. 

 

The path for prospects is different in almost every situation. There's enough of a consensus among baseball pundits that Rodriguez will be a top of the rotation type of starter. They're usually correct...even if the process to get to the finish line is different for each guy 

[btdart20]

36 minutes ago, nvpacchi said:

Good news for Gray Rod is the fastball velo is back. 

Hitters are sitting dead-red on the FB.  Babip allowed on FBs is a robust .486.  Hitters are barreling it 10.1% of the time (6.8% league avg).  94.6 EV.  That's a lot of hard-hit balls on a pitch that he uses 42+% of the time!  He has to prove he can hit his spots with something/anything else before they adjust off of that pitch.

His pitch mix has changed a good bit from game to game (or even 3-4 game chunks).  Which is somewhat normal, but it feels like it's more than SSS fluctuation.  Especially the SL, CB, and CU usage.  FB and CH is fairly consistent.

[emmett16]

I've seen him pitch a good bit in the minors at Delmarva & Norfolk.  He got a lot of help from the poor batters he faced.  His stuff was so nasty they mostly guess and when they guess wrong they looked silly swinging at pitches out of the zone.  He had not problems getting MiLBers out and had 4 very good pitches to choose from. I saw his 2 starts before his injury and he was seemingly controlling just about everything and had very good command of his slider and curve.  I've always thought his curve was nasty and wondered why he didn't throw it more.   I was at the Angels game with a good view.  He was popping 99 fairly consistently with the fastball which was very good to see.  Can't remember seeing him up there that consistently - honestly that was my biggest take away from the entire game.  I was very excited to see those velo numbers and it made me think his other stuff is going to fall in line shortly. He pitched around Ohtani in the first and that threw off his mechanics a bit.  None of those pitches were competitive.  It looked like it took him a little while to get his feel back after that AB.  The 0-2 2 out pitch that Urshela doubled for 2rbi really threw him through a loop as well.  To me he just looks green & raw.  I think the stuff is excellent, he's just going to have to learn that you can't take a break at any point, you can't throw non-competitive pitches on a pitch around that are going to screw up your mechanics moving forward and that you have to move on quickly when things don't go your way.  The stuff he got away with in the minors he will not be able to get away with at the MLB level and I'm confident he will figure it out fairly quickly.  He seems like a very intelligent and motivated young man.  Folks calling for his demotion are a little short sighted I think.  

[nvpacchi]

38 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Hitters are sitting dead-red on the FB.  Babip allowed on FBs is a robust .486.  Hitters are barreling it 10.1% of the time (6.8% league avg).  94.6 EV.  That's a lot of hard-hit balls on a pitch that he uses 42+% of the time!  He has to prove he can hit his spots with something/anything else before they adjust off of that pitch.

His pitch mix has changed a good bit from game to game (or even 3-4 game chunks).  Which is somewhat normal, but it feels like it's more than SSS fluctuation.  Especially the SL, CB, and CU usage.  FB and CH is fairly consistent.

doesn't surprise me at all, those figures.

His pitchability needs work, which will make or break him as a starter.  Of course he still has all the time in the world to figure it out.

I think it was Geoff Pontes of Baseball America who said that (paraphrasing) it you keep searching guys out just for their stuff, you'll eventually wind up with a bunch of relievers.  Stuff is great and all, but it doesn't mean a whole lot if you don't know where its going.

[nvpacchi]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Change-up - devastating pitch that he usually locates well.   Nice fade and nice drop, and unhittable if you’re looking fastball.

 

 

I may have posted this before, but I'm not sure.  Eli Ben Porat was one of the best follows on Twitter before he stopped posting due to some consulting work he's doing with major league clubs. RE his changeup, it is indistinguishable from his four seamer. The change follows the same plane as the four seam on its trajectory towards home, at the important .14 sec mark which is normally when hitters need to commit to a swing or not.

If you take a look at his articles, you'll see graphs for other pitches that have more distinguished movement patterns.  Something like deGroms FF and SL are also incredibly tough to discern at the .14 sec mark (surprise).

His change should become his best secondary, but again I imagine he's not locating it as well as he should, or just throwing it far too uncompetitively too many times.

*I believe this data is from spring training.  Definitely not regular season

 

Here's a fun Shane Bieber image too, where all his pitches are clustered in the same spot early on, and then go in drastically different directions.  Its likely why he can be so effective without good velocity.  Check out his article (link below) on the Braves, and you'll see what big differences look like on different pitches.  Fastballs and curves generally don't pair together well when thinking about movement synergy - probably a reason why so many pitchers are trying their best to go fastball/slider if possible.

-Even on Bieber's graph you can see the different trajectory the knuckle curve takes.

https://elibenporat.substack.com/p/pitch-movement-synergy-notes-atlanta

Edited May 19, 2023 by nvpacchi

[Hank Scorpio]

Outstanding stuff!!!!!! (No pun intended.)

Thank you!

Edited May 19, 2023 by Hank Scorpio

[interloper]

What good is stuff when you can't command any of it? 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

What good is stuff when you can't command any of it? 

It's more effective than commanding pitches without velocity or movement.

[interloper]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

It's more effective than commanding pitches without velocity or movement.

If your low-velo and low-movement pitches are getting hit hard, then you aren't commanding them. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

If your low-velo and low-movement pitches are getting hit hard, then you aren't commanding them. 

I think Can_of_corn did a good job of hedging by throwing “movement” in there.  Well-located pitches that move can be effective even at low velocity.  I’m not sure well located fastballs that are straight as an arrow at 90 mph will fly.  

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Can_of_corn did a good job of hedging by throwing “movement” in there.  Well-located pitches that move can be effective even at low velocity.  I’m not sure well located fastballs that are straight as an arrow at 90 mph will fly.  

It depends. Does the pitcher have deception? Is he getting ahead with off-speed stuff? Can he locate in all quadrants? You can have a decent amount of success as a control artist with below-average movement and velocity, IMO. Not saying you can be an ace, but maybe a 4.5-5 ERA. Which is the low bar we are currently at with Grayson. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, interloper said:

If your low-velo and low-movement pitches are getting hit hard, then you aren't commanding them. 

Why doesn't each team have a few Jamie Moyer types?

If all you need is command.

Velocity and movement are very important.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think Can_of_corn did a good job of hedging by throwing “movement” in there.  Well-located pitches that move can be effective even at low velocity.  I’m not sure well located fastballs that are straight as an arrow at 90 mph will fly.  

I'll argue it wasn't hedging.  Velocity and movement are key components of "stuff".

[interloper]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why doesn't each team have a few Jamie Moyer types?

If all you need is command.

Velocity and movement are very important.

But command is more important than either, IMO. Grayson won't be a good ML SP until he finds command. You can survive with less command as a RP, though! So that's always an option in his future I guess. 

Yes, I am cranky about Grayson Rodriguez. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

But command is more important than either, IMO. Grayson won't be a good ML SP until he finds command. You can survive with less command as a RP, though! So that's always an option in his future I guess. 

Yes, I am cranky about Grayson Rodriguez. 

Ubaldo had a better career than Alex Wells.