BA updated top 100

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

That's what I'm getting at, ie how much the system's reputation boosts the stock of individual players. Or perhaps in the case of pitchers, diminishes their stock.

The reason I'm singling out Gunnar is because he's the first real guy to come out of the system and test its mettle at the MLB level. Obviously Adley was actually first, but I don't think what Adley does will reflect much on the O's development system given his reputation going into the 2019 draft. So when Gunnar flahses like he has the past couple of weeks, maybe it's proof of concept to some that the O's know how to develop guys with a similar profile to Gunnar, ie another corner infielder with power, and that it's plausible the numbers these guys put up in the minors can be converted into production in the bigs.

Maybe that is the case?

But it seems like the consensus of the baseball industry was buying “Gunnar stock” before he started to turn the corner based on their own objective evaluations of him. 

He’s an Uber talented kid who has had his skills refined in this system. But coming out of high school he had a lot of raw talent. The main thing that I think the Orioles (under Elias/Sig’s development system) have helped to refine with him and others is their plate discipline/swing decisions. Both he and Adley are elite in that regard. And it appears that both Cowser and Kjerstad are very similar in that regard. Obviously as you stated, Adley already had those tools and Holliday too for that matter. But some of the others I believe that we have been able to help them in that regard.

The best talent to develop is always those who already have a lot of potential/talent. It certainly didn’t hurt us to be able to pick at the top of the draft year after year.

[RVAOsFan]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Kjerstad is three years older than Mayo and Mayo put up similar numbers at Bowie. Neither are a plus defender, but Mayo possesses a plus arm. I still like Mayo more a prospect. 

Not that it really matters but I saw them both about a month ago playing for Bowie.  We had some good seats down low and they were both standing next to each other around the dugout and I couldn't get over how big Mayo is.  He just looks like a man amongst boys.

[Tony-OH]

27 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Not that it really matters but I saw them both about a month ago playing for Bowie.  We had some good seats down low and they were both standing next to each other around the dugout and I couldn't get over how big Mayo is.  He just looks like a man amongst boys.

I really think people are underestimating him and what he's doing this year as one of the youngest player's in the Eastern League. This would have been Mayo's junior draft year. 

If he was drafted this year and was sent directly to Bowie and put up the numbers he's putting up, people would be losing their minds and calling him one of the best prospects in baseball. 

I like Kjerstad as a prospect and I think he's going be a good hitter, but there are defensive concerns in the outfield and he's struggled in his taste at 1B. I do think he can handle RF in Camden but will be similar to Santander. 

Mayo is a guy who can slide over to 1B and will probably end up a plus defender there, though I do think he can play, albeit awkwardly, 3B. Mayo hasn't even fully developed into his man strength and he's already added the opposite field home runs this year. There is some miss in the bat, and we'll see how that plays moving forward, but the improvement in the BB and K % are really good and he's still a bit under the radar. Then again, BA have always be infatuated with draft status. 

[RVAOsFan]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I really think people are underestimating him and what he's doing this year as one of the youngest player's in the Eastern League. This would have been Mayo's junior draft year. 

If he was drafted this year and was sent directly to Bowie and put up the numbers he's putting up, people would be losing their minds and calling him one of the best prospects in baseball. 

I like Kjerstad as a prospect and I think he's going be a good hitter, but there are defensive concerns in the outfield and he's struggled in his taste at 1B. I do think he can handle RF in Camden but will be similar to Santander. 

Mayo is a guy who can slide over to 1B and will probably end up a plus defender there, though I do think he can play, albeit awkwardly, 3B. Mayo hasn't even fully developed into his man strength and he's already added the opposite field home runs this year. There is some miss in the bat, and we'll see how that plays moving forward, but the improvement in the BB and K % are really good and he's still a bit under the radar. Then again, BA have always be infatuated with draft status. 

Great info, thanks! Kjerstad played 1B in the game I was at and he didn't look very comfortable.  One play in particular he completely whiffed trying to handle a one hopper thrown to him by the SS.  I only bring that up because you mention moving Mayo over to 1B.  I wish they would start grooming one of these guys whether its Mayo or someone else now to be the future first basement.  I know its looked at as a position for less athletic players but there are still things about the position guys need to get used to (IE: fielding short hops).

[Hank Scorpio]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I really think people are underestimating him and what he's doing this year as one of the youngest player's in the Eastern League. This would have been Mayo's junior draft year. 

If he was drafted this year and was sent directly to Bowie and put up the numbers he's putting up, people would be losing their minds and calling him one of the best prospects in baseball. 

I like Kjerstad as a prospect and I think he's going be a good hitter, but there are defensive concerns in the outfield and he's struggled in his taste at 1B. I do think he can handle RF in Camden but will be similar to Santander. 

Mayo is a guy who can slide over to 1B and will probably end up a plus defender there, though I do think he can play, albeit awkwardly, 3B. Mayo hasn't even fully developed into his man strength and he's already added the opposite field home runs this year. There is some miss in the bat, and we'll see how that plays moving forward, but the improvement in the BB and K % are really good and he's still a bit under the radar. Then again, BA have always be infatuated with draft status. 

This is an excellent point and one that I think gets missed all too often. 

[Just Regular]

Recognizing that fantasy rankers aren't evaluating real baseball, but they are at least agnostic on the #RisingTide Hype PR that is part of the game - BP fantasy people in a monthly update this week put Coby Mayo #55.     Some other AL Middle of the Order type bats with maybe not a ton of defensive value near him were:

Mayo just lags: #47 Emmanuel Rodriguez, #53 Miguel Bleis

Mayo just leads: #57 Spencer Jones, #66 Drew Gilbert, #67 Connor Norby

I think we are past the days of low information front offices reading Baseball America to know who is good, but who knows and it can't hurt if Jim Callis thinks your guys are great.      One day they'll play games against each other in the Majors.

Obviously those raw rankings for fantasy are inflated numbers because TINSTAAPP, but it gives an indication tier wise how some gamers view Mayo right now.

[Alasdaire]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

But it seems like the consensus of the baseball industry was buying “Gunnar stock” before he started to turn the corner based on their own objective evaluations of him. 

He’s an Uber talented kid who has had his skills refined in this system. But coming out of high school he had a lot of raw talent. The main thing that I think the Orioles (under Elias/Sig’s development system) have helped to refine with him and others is their plate discipline/swing decisions. Both he and Adley are elite in that regard. And it appears that both Cowser and Kjerstad are very similar in that regard. Obviously as you stated, Adley already had those tools and Holliday too for that matter. But some of the others I believe that we have been able to help them in that regard.

Gunnar wasn't really a top-50 prospect going into last year if I recall. In fact, Fangraphs had Gunnar at 66 going into 2022 whereas they had Mayo at 36 going into 2023 (Fangraphs has been higher on Mayo than BA or Pipeline).

And I don't think there was that big of a difference between Gunnar and Coby coming out of high school. Gunnar was taken at 42 for $2.3m and Coby 103 for $1.75m, but that was probably due to the perception that Gunnar would sign and Coby wouldn't. Plus there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding prep players in 2020. Both Perfect Game 10s and committed to SEC programs.

The major difference so far as I can tell (short of looking at swing mechanics and analytics) was the foot speed, which meant Gunnar's upside was as a SS whereas Coby's was at 3B. But Mayo is bigger and has always had more power and a stronger arm, so it's not like we're comparing the athleticism of Jorge Mateo versus that of Terrin Vavra.

Gunnar earned the hype surrounding him, but there's a whole lot to like about Coby Mayo too, and they're both receiving the same coaching. Goes back to the question of biases that we all have.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Alasdaire said:

Gunnar wasn't really a top-50 prospect going into last year if I recall. In fact, Fangraphs had Gunnar at 66 going into 2022 whereas they had Mayo at 36 going into 2023 (Fangraphs has been higher on Mayo than BA or Pipeline).

And I don't think there was that big of a difference between Gunnar and Coby coming out of high school. Gunnar was taken at 42 for $2.3m and Coby 103 for $1.75m, but that was probably due to the perception that Gunnar would sign and Coby wouldn't. Plus there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding prep players in 2020. Both Perfect Game 10s and committed to SEC programs.

The major difference so far as I can tell (short of looking at swing mechanics and analytics) was the foot speed, which meant Gunnar's upside was as a SS whereas Coby's was at 3B. But Mayo is bigger and has always had more power and a stronger arm, so it's not like we're comparing the athleticism of Jorge Mateo versus that of Terrin Vavra.

Gunnar earned the hype surrounding him, but there's a whole lot to like about Coby Mayo too, and they're both receiving the same coaching. Goes back to the question of biases that we all have.

When I look at the two and then watch them play baseball, I can see the difference in caliber of athlete. Gunnar is all classic 5 tool player. Maybe not to the Ocuna Jr level of athleticism but an incredible athletic talent. I’m not trying to down/knock Mayo and I hope that he hits his ceiling like Gunnar appears to be on his way toward. But IMO there’s a clear difference in the athletic talents of the two.

In this org, only Holliday has the type of raw talent that Gunnar has. Mateo is a better athlete than both but doesn’t have a comparable hit tool.

[Alasdaire]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

When I look at the two and then watch them play baseball, I can see the difference in caliber of athlete. Gunnar is all classic 5 tool player. Maybe not to the Ocuna Jr level of athleticism but an incredible athletic talent. I’m not trying to down/knock Mayo and I hope that he hits his ceiling like Gunnar appears to be on his way toward. But IMO there’s a clear difference in the athletic talents of the two.

In this org, only Holliday has the type of raw talent that Gunnar has. Mateo is a better athlete than both but doesn’t have a comparable hit tool.

Coby is bigger and stronger than Gunnar. Gunnar has more nimble feet and softer hands (although not elite for a shortstop or base stealer). We can talk about approach and swing mechanics, but those don't really reflect on the caliber of athlete.

Reverse engineering Gunnar as a guy who has always been a generational prospect/athlete because of what he became is the sort of bias I'm suggesting we be mindful of (and that we all have).

Mayo is an interesting test case for me precisely because he has largely been forgotten by many despite lining up favorably in all of the ways I've pointed out.

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Coby is bigger and stronger than Gunnar. Gunnar has more nimble feet and softer hands (although not elite for a shortstop or base stealer). We can talk about approach and swing mechanics, but those don't really reflect on the caliber of athlete.

Reverse engineering Gunnar as a guy who has always been a generational prospect/athlete because of what he became is the sort of bias I'm suggesting we be mindful of (and that we all have).

Mayo is an interesting test case for me precisely because he has largely been forgotten by many despite lining up favorably in all of the ways I've pointed out.

I never said that he was a generational prospect and I don’t think anybody ever has to my knowledge. He was a raw player who was a potential 5 tool player coming out of high school. Nowhere near refined as a play/prospect as Jackson Holliday. But he was always a great athlete and that’s not how I would describe Mayo. Mayo has never been described as a 5 tool player. 

Like I said earlier, I hope Mayo kills it and hits his ceiling whatever that might be. And I don’t want to take anything away from him. But I don’t see him currently in Gunnar’s class. Let alone Holliday’s or even a Cowser. That doesn’t mean that he can’t exceed my amateur opinion of him.

[btdart20]

41 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

Fangraphs had Gunnar at 66 going into 2022 whereas they had Mayo at 36 going into 2023

So what I hear you saying is Mayo’s lining up for us to have 4 #1’s in a row!  

[Alasdaire]

31 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

So what I hear you saying is Mayo’s lining up for us to have 4 #1’s in a row!  

#1 in my heart. Well maybe two after Fabian.

Seriously looking forward to where Fangraphs puts him though. They’re rolling out their mid-season evals now, and if they liked him before this season, I have to imagine they feel validated now. Top 25? Yowza!

[Gurgi]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Liberatore graduated off the list…Mayo is now #100.  Makes 9 for the Os

Oh my god.....Elias has drafted us into a monster.  

[Frobby]

15 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

Great info, thanks! Kjerstad played 1B in the game I was at and he didn't look very comfortable.  One play in particular he completely whiffed trying to handle a one hopper thrown to him by the SS.  I only bring that up because you mention moving Mayo over to 1B.  I wish they would start grooming one of these guys whether its Mayo or someone else now to be the future first basement.  I know its looked at as a position for less athletic players but there are still things about the position guys need to get used to (IE: fielding short hops).

I think the conversion from 3B is much easier than from the OF.  3B field short hops all the time, coming at them much faster than most throws.  And they’re used to reacting in a split second to balls hit hard off the bat.   

[Frobby]

15 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I really think people are underestimating him and what he's doing this year as one of the youngest player's in the Eastern League. This would have been Mayo's junior draft year. 

If he was drafted this year and was sent directly to Bowie and put up the numbers he's putting up, people would be losing their minds and calling him one of the best prospects in baseball. 

I like Kjerstad as a prospect and I think he's going be a good hitter, but there are defensive concerns in the outfield and he's struggled in his taste at 1B. I do think he can handle RF in Camden but will be similar to Santander. 

Mayo is a guy who can slide over to 1B and will probably end up a plus defender there, though I do think he can play, albeit awkwardly, 3B. Mayo hasn't even fully developed into his man strength and he's already added the opposite field home runs this year. There is some miss in the bat, and we'll see how that plays moving forward, but the improvement in the BB and K % are really good and he's still a bit under the radar. Then again, BA have always be infatuated with draft status. 

My big concern with Mayo was the swing and miss, and reported vulnerability to low (?) pitches.  But it seems he’s shown good progress in all areas this year.  Here are his Bowie numbers from 2022 and 2023:

2022 (age 20): .250/.331/.398, 34.5% K/PA

2023 (age 21): .284/.408/.528, 26.3% K/PA

BA better, ISO better, K rate better, BB rate better.  Check, check, check and check. 

He’s ready for a promotion, but the system is pretty jammed up, so we’ll see how long they keep him at Bowie.