I'm sure at some point I'll have meltdown about Felix later this season..

[Aristotelian]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

While I didn’t see yesterday’s game, I think the splitter is an important weapon in Felix’s aresenal and when it’s working (which it mostly has been, lately) it’s devastating and pairs extremely well with his fastball.  The slider is a pitch he’ll throw like once an outing just for the element of surprise.   I do not think he’d be as effective if he threw nothing but fastballs.  

The splitter is a great pitch, but no question in my mind, since the Judge HR he has had more FB in the mix and has been more effective. Last night (granted it was KC's 5-7, not exactly Murderers Row) he threw only one splitter, which was a hanger in the zone that fortunately got a checked swing strike. Vs MIL he thew only one splitter on the last pitch out of 21 pitches (he did throw a couple of sliders). He should not abandon the splitter but I like the approach of using the FB most of the time, making the splitter more effective. 

[IPlayGM]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think he trusts it. I think they get too cute with the splitter and now the slider. 

But when he was struggling (relative I know) and it was a make or break pitch, he was leaning heavily on the split. That’s what I meant with the trust factor. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The splitter is a great pitch, but no question in my mind, since the Judge HR he has had more FB in the mix and has been more effective. Last night (granted it was KC's 5-7, not exactly Murderers Row) he threw only one splitter, which was a hanger in the zone that fortunately got a checked swing strike. Vs MIL he thew only one splitter on the last pitch out of 21 pitches (he did throw a couple of sliders). He should not abandon the splitter but I like the approach of using the FB most of the time, making the splitter more effective. 

I just hope he can find consistency with it.  He gets away with hanging splitters most of the time because the hitters have to be ready for 102.   But when the batters don’t mistime them, the hangers go a long way.  On the other hand, the low splitter is well nigh unhittable.  He had the good one going on the road trip.  

I could go look at his pitch mix game by game over the last stretch, but that’s a bit time consuming.  Per Fangraphs, he’s thrown the FB 68% of the time, splitter 28%, slider 4%.  Last year he was 61/26/13.   So, he’s definitely thrown the GB more, but really at the expense of the slider.   

 

[Aristotelian]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I just hope he can find consistency with it.  He gets away with hanging splitters most of the time because the hitters have to be ready for 102.   But when the batters don’t mistime them, the hangers go a long way.  On the other hand, the low splitter is well nigh unhittable.  He had the good one going on the road trip.  

I could go look at his pitch mix game by game over the last stretch, but that’s a bit time consuming.  Per Fangraphs, he’s thrown the FB 68% of the time, splitter 28%, slider 4%.  Last year he was 61/26/13.   So, he’s definitely thrown the GB more, but really at the expense of the slider.   

 

I agree, command and consistency are more important than pitch mix. Felix's biggest issue is command, especially with the splitter. I would guess most of his HR have come on splitters in the zone. If he can command it, he can throw as many as he wants. 

Just to show myself that I'm not making it up:

6/9 vs KC: 9 FB, 1 FS

6/8 vs MIL: 15 FB, 1 FS, 3 SL

6/6 vs MIL: 9 FB, 1 FS, 1 SL

6/2 vs SF: 13 FB, 3 FS

5/30 vs CLE: 12 FB, 2 FS

5/28 vs TEX: 10 FB, 5 FS

5/24 vs NYY: 13 FB, 1 FS, 2 SL

---------------

5/23 vs NYY: 11 FB, 4 FS

The pitch mix has definitely been more FB dominant lately. Since the Judge homer only one game with above average splitter use. Overall it's been about 20% with good results. If he has been at  18% (13/72) in this run, that means he was probably closer to 30% earlier in the year. (If you count the AB's following Judge in the 5/23 it's even more extreme!).

That does not mean he should abandon the splitter, just don't throw it over the plate in a predictable count. The league may adjust to his FB-dominant approach and if so he will need to adjust back. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree, command and consistency are more important than pitch mix. Felix's biggest issue is command, especially with the splitter. I would guess most of his HR have come on splitters in the zone. If he can command it, he can throw as many as he wants. 

Just to show myself that I'm not making it up:

6/9 vs KC: 9 FB, 1 FS

6/8 vs MIL: 15 FB, 1 FS, 3 SL

6/6 vs MIL: 9 FB, 1 FS, 1 SL

6/2 vs SF: 13 FB, 3 FS

5/30 vs CLE: 12 FB, 2 FS

5/28 vs TEX: 10 FB, 5 FS

5/24 vs NYY: 13 FB, 1 FS, 2 SL

---------------

5/23 vs NYY: 11 FB, 4 FS

The pitch mix has definitely been more FB dominant lately. Since the Judge homer only one game with above average splitter use. Overall it's been about 20% with good results. If he has been at  18% (13/72) in this run, that means he was probably closer to 30% earlier in the year. (If you count the AB's following Judge in the 5/23 it's even more extreme!).

That does not mean he should abandon the splitter, just don't throw it over the plate in a predictable count. The league may adjust to his FB-dominant approach and if so he will need to adjust back. 

Thanks for the breakdown.  The other thing I’d say is that he’s had excellent command of the FB over the last month or so, whereas he was having some trouble locating it for a few weeks in early May.

[Aristotelian]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks for the breakdown.  The other thing I’d say is that he’s had excellent command of the FB over the last month or so, whereas he was having some trouble locating it for a few weeks in early May.

Agreed. Pretty sure the FB velocity is up too (102 yesterday). He is pitching better overall in addition to changing up the pitch mix. 

[banks703]

12 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I just don’t think the splitter works that well that often. Seems like it’s been more off than on this year. 
 

The fastball is almost always legit. I hate seeing him screw around with the slider or continue to hang splitters on the off-chance he gets one to dive-bomb. 

This is where I am with him. I would rather he lose with 101 or 102 than to hang a split when they know in the pen that he doesn’t have command of it. 
 

Bring the heater, Ricky!!

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

I have been enjoying the ride too, but this looks a lot more like 1989 than 1969 in terms of the inability to beat the living snot out of opponents.  

This is a team that can't afford to say "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" with regard to any offensive element.  They demonstrably need offensive fixing and yes, I know that means they have to answer some difficult questions about who gets demoted/cut.

Agreed.  The offense is doing just enough to allow the dominant backend guys to close out games.  But we need to continue addressing our weak spots.  Especially the spots with in-house options.

[btdart20]

10 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

I have been enjoying the ride too, but this looks a lot more like 1989 than 1969 in terms of the inability to beat the living snot out of opponents.  

This is a team that can't afford to say "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" with regard to any offensive element.  They demonstrably need offensive fixing and yes, I know that means they have to answer some difficult questions about who gets demoted/cut.

Agreed.  The offense is doing just enough to allow the dominant backend guys to close out games.  But we need to continue addressing our weak spots.  Especially the spots with in-house options.