Bowden discusses the trade deadline

[Sports Guy]

https://theathletic.com/4602125/2023/06/12/mlb-trade-deadline-storylines-bowden/?source=user_shared_article
 

I caught some of his MLBN radio show with Duquette yesterday and the prevailing thought about this deadline, amongst GMs, is that there is a ton of uncertainty entering the deadline.

Right now, you only have a few definite sellers and most of them don’t have anything to trade.

As the article discusses, the mediocrity of the central divisions is an issue for the deadline as of now because everyone is still in it.

However, I have to assume that in 4-6 weeks, things will change.

One thing is for sure, it’s going to be a sellers market, so overpaying may need to occur. It will be interesting to see if Elias is willing to do that.

Another thing they talked about yesterday was how you may see buyer to buyer trades. Team A needs hitting and team B needs pitching.  That type of thing.
 

Edited June 12, 2023 by Sports Guy

[baltfan]

We will pick up a reliever.  We won't get a starter.  There isn't anyone that is any good that is obviously available and obviously better than what we have.  Of course, injuries could change this.  However, Irvin will probably be ok going forward, G-Rod might figure things out, and Means could help later in the year.  I don't think trading for someone not at the Cease level moves the needle and I don't see any guys like that actually being available.

[Aristotelian]

Sellers market doesn't sound like something Elias will partake in.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Sellers market doesn't sound like something Elias will partake in.

Yea that’s my question as well. I don’t see him overpaying.

[baltfan]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea that’s my question as well. I don’t see him overpaying.

And he shouldn't.  There is no clear need.  The starters are improving as the year has gone on.  The obvious guy to replace is Irvin, but G-Rod or Means might be a better replacement come the trade deadline.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, baltfan said:

And he shouldn't.  There is no clear need.  The starters are improving as the year has gone on.  The obvious guy to replace is Irvin, but G-Rod or Means might be a better replacement come the trade deadline.

I disagree. I think there are clear and obvious needs.

This team is far from a finished product.

[celery]

I think the only way we get a SP will be someone younger with control. Like Irvin but better, but definitely not a proven TOR "Ace". For that reason I don't think it's likely.

 

I think targeting one or two impact relievers makes a ton of sense. I wouldn't count on Givens or Tate for anything at all this year. Having a 7-8-9 shutdown bullpen would help our SP situation.

 

I think the dark horse trade would be a big 1B bat. If the value is there they might do that and it would be useful. But probably a rental with Kjerstad in the wings.

[Mooreisbetter27]

1 minute ago, baltfan said:

And he shouldn't.  There is no clear need.  The starters are improving as the year has gone on.  The obvious guy to replace is Irvin, but G-Rod or Means might be a better replacement come the trade deadline.

I don't think anyone should put hopes on either of them.  Means optimistically may be back in August.  GRod will probably be shut down at some point late in the year.  

[baltfan]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I disagree. I think there are clear and obvious needs.

This team is far from a finished product.

Who that might actually be available do you want them to trade for and who should they replace?

[baltfan]

6 minutes ago, Mooreisbetter27 said:

I don't think anyone should put hopes on either of them.  Means optimistically may be back in August.  GRod will probably be shut down at some point late in the year.  

We will have a much better idea closer to the deadline.  If you are correct, then a move might be more necessary.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, celery said:

 

I think the dark horse trade would be a big 1B bat. If the value is there they might do that and it would be useful. But probably a rental with Kjerstad in the wings.

I've had this thought too and I wouldn't be surprised if Elias picks up a plus bat to play 1B/DH with Mountcastle floundering. 

[Tony-OH]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://theathletic.com/4602125/2023/06/12/mlb-trade-deadline-storylines-bowden/?source=user_shared_article
 

I caught some of his MLBN radio show with Duquette yesterday and the prevailing thought about this deadline, amongst GMs, is that there is a ton of uncertainty entering the deadline.

Right now, you only have a few definite sellers and most of them don’t have anything to trade.

As the article discusses, the mediocrity of the central divisions is an issue for the deadline as of now because everyone is still in it.

However, I have to assume that in 4-6 weeks, things will change.

One thing is for sure, it’s going to be a sellers market, so overpaying may need to occur. It will be interesting to see if Elias is willing to do that.

Another thing they talked about yesterday was how you may see buyer to buyer trades. Team A needs hitting and team B needs pitching.  That type of thing.
 

This is part of the reason why I'm not thrilled with the Orioles drafting philosophy. Drafting almost all hitters in the first ten rounds has left them woefully short in real starting pitching prospects in the system. You can't expect to just trade these hitting prospects stuck in the minors for pitching help because most teams don't want to move impact starting pitching.

On top of it, with the extra playoff spots, few teams are completely out of it and very few teams want to trade young, good, controllable starting pitching.

When you look at the system, I'll be honest, once you get outside of the top 12 or so, you start getting serious question marks and besides Rodriguez, Hall and Povich, I'm not sure there is a legitimate starting pitching prospect in the system and each of those three have question marks. 

Sure, the old adage of TINSTAAPP is a real thing because of the amount of things that can go wrong, but clearly some teams like the Braves, Cardinals, Tampa and probably Dodgers have been pretty good at over the years so it's possible. 

I've always thought it harder to find legitimate pitching then it is hitting since you can find guys like O'Hearn or Lester who can help you for a bit, but finding a starter is much, much harder. 

Until I see Elias pull if an impact starting pitcher (No I'm not counting Irvin who is more of a 4th/5th starter) trade, I'm going to question his drafting philosophy. 

Elias and company have this thought that they can develop college pitchers that they find from the 8th round on, but who hit? Arbruester is the top guy of that group but I'm still not impressed with his stuff despite the numbers at AA. 

Not surprisingly Trace Bright (5th round) last year is probably the best starting pitching prospects drafting by Elias but he has a ways to go to find consistency.

At some point Elias needs to pull the trigger and take a gamble on a young pitching prospect in the 1st or 2nd round if the right guy is there. 

He's drafting way too many 4th outfielders and hitters with questionable fielding skills in these first 5 rounds and needs to start going after some potential starting pitching prospects.

This might be the year since it's the first year he's not drafting in the top ten. I'm hoping for pitchers this year, but I'm not holding my breath because Elias has not shown much changes in his philosophy since he got here and the only pitcher he gave over a million dollars to (Baumler) can't stay healthy which probably makes him stick harder to that philosophy. 

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, baltfan said:

We will have a much better idea closer to the deadline.  If you are correct, then a move might be more necessary.  

This is a good point. What are needs are now vs the deadline could be different based on performance and injury.

Right now, I think this team needs one more starter and one more shut down reliever in the pen.

I think they can upgrade the offense by bringing up Westburg and Cowser at some point. 

[oriole]

I think Elias will be a bit of both seller and buyer. I could see a scenario where he trades a lower level prospect for a reliever or bench player while also trading away an established player for prospects. Something like a trade of Urias or Frazier and letting Westburg take their place. 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Who that might actually be available do you want them to trade for and who should they replace?

There are a number of starters that make us better.

A guy like Aroldis Chapman makes the pen better and allows us to really shorten games. I would argue that making it a 6 inning game would be more important than adding a starter.

I also think another bat could definitely be needed but I do wish we would see some of these young kids up to see if they can help right now.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Sports Guy